[old spanish trail]

There was an interesting thing with Hinton where many fans had a similar impression to OST that Hinton's cameo/ogre role in 2020 was an impressive first glimpse and then he regressed but Pro Football Focus had a more mixed view of Hinton in 2020. They didn't exactly think he was bad but they definitely thought he was mixed. He played 8+ snaps in four games that year and PFF thought he was good (73.7+ grade in each game) against Cal and UCLA and horrible (45.4 grade in each game) against Washington and Oregon State. The Oregon State game was only an 8 snap game so really not much to draw from. Conversely, he really only had one game that year with significant snaps and that was a nightmare (22 snaps against Washington). The other thing to know about Hinton's freshman year is we almost exclusively asked him to run block. He only even played on 5 pass block snaps all year. So there was nothing you could really say you saw from him in pass blocking that year.

In 2021, it was truly a nightmare. A jarring stat is that PFF thought he was 691 of 693 starting linemen in America. Truly one of the worst seasons at any position not just in Stanford history but in the history of Pac-12 football. PFF didn't really think he was good in anything at any point aside from his pass blocking against Oregon State (he barely played against Washington). A nightmare.

Your question is what happened. Can this improve?

I usually think "it can't get worse" is one of the most intellectually lazy and problematic arguments but this is a rare instance in which it really would be hard to. Yet I find myself less than optimistic. I think it's a very real possibility he was simply overrated.

When Hinton committed to us he was the definition of a mega whale, one of the biggest recruits in our history: composite #12, with all three services having him among the top 17 recruits in the nation. By the end of the cycle he was composite #74 and all three services had moved him down. 247, which is arguably the best evaluator, nuked his ranking down to #218. In the view of 247, Hinton was comparable to Brendon Austin, Kevin Reihner, Graham Shuler, Brandon Fanaika, Casey Tucker, Brian Chaffin, Clark Yarbrough, Devery Hamilton, Barrett Miller, Levi Rogers, James Pogorelc, Austin Uke, and Fisher Anderson.

Here’s the reality on Hinton: arguably the best service thought he was a low 4-star and most definitely not a whale. Empirically under Shaw those recruits have tended to be between useless and solid starters. Many of our fans and apparently coaches totally deluded themselves into lumping Hinton with guys like Andrus Peat, Kyle Murphy, Joshua Garnett, Walker Little, and Foster Sarell when the reality is that Casey Tucker is the most flattering realistic comparison and a service with a very good track record made the even less comparable comparisons above. His high school junior season was wiped out due to injury and then he had a shoulder surgery that prevented him from lifting weights or running the entire offseason heading into his senior year. When he did play it was at a level that led to the precipitous drop in his recruiting rankings. He may have dropped further were he not the son and brother of the Chris Hintons. Even during his recruitment there were whispers - some even mentioned in actual press reports - that he’s such a Renaissance Man/polymath that he might not be committed to football or have the right mentality. He’s been quoted as saying he hated football until he realized he wasn’t bad at it, which is quite foreboding about what happened to his confidence last year when he was most definitely bad at football.

Based on the combination of what we knew about him as a recruit plus what we’ve seen from him in the first two years of his college career, I think it’s more likely he sucks than it is that he’s ever good. If he does develop we shouldn’t hope for more than a Casey Tucker or Devery Hamilton. And with Hornibrook, Pogorelc, and McLaughlin on the bench my stomach dropped every game last season we assessed Hinton is a better option than any of those three. With Hornibrook it really was puzzling as he's been a competitive player for years now.

Totally agree re Hornibrook and Yikes! re Hinton. Thanks for the analysis. Fingers crossed that he emerges but expectations lowered.

[old spanish trail]

There was an interesting thing with Hinton where many fans had a similar impression to OST that Hinton's cameo/ogre role in 2020 was an impressive first glimpse and then he regressed but Pro Football Focus had a more mixed view of Hinton in 2020. They didn't exactly think he was bad but they definitely thought he was mixed. He played 8+ snaps in four games that year and PFF thought he was good (73.7+ grade in each game) against Cal and UCLA and horrible (45.4 grade in each game) against Washington and Oregon State. The Oregon State game was only an 8 snap game so really not much to draw from. Conversely, he really only had one game that year with significant snaps and that was a nightmare (22 snaps against Washington). The other thing to know about Hinton's freshman year is we almost exclusively asked him to run block. He only even played on 5 pass block snaps all year. So there was nothing you could really say you saw from him in pass blocking that year.

In 2021, it was truly a nightmare. A jarring stat is that PFF thought he was 691 of 693 starting linemen in America. Truly one of the worst seasons at any position not just in Stanford history but in the history of Pac-12 football. PFF didn't really think he was good in anything at any point aside from his pass blocking against Oregon State (he barely played against Washington). A nightmare.

Your question is what happened. Can this improve?

I usually think "it can't get worse" is one of the most intellectually lazy and problematic arguments but this is a rare instance in which it really would be hard to. Yet I find myself less than optimistic. I think it's a very real possibility he was simply overrated.

When Hinton committed to us he was the definition of a mega whale, one of the biggest recruits in our history: composite #12, with all three services having him among the top 17 recruits in the nation. By the end of the cycle he was composite #74 and all three services had moved him down. 247, which is arguably the best evaluator, nuked his ranking down to #218. In the view of 247, Hinton was comparable to Brendon Austin, Kevin Reihner, Graham Shuler, Brandon Fanaika, Casey Tucker, Brian Chaffin, Clark Yarbrough, Devery Hamilton, Barrett Miller, Levi Rogers, James Pogorelc, Austin Uke, and Fisher Anderson.

Here’s the reality on Hinton: arguably the best service thought he was a low 4-star and most definitely not a whale. Empirically under Shaw those recruits have tended to be between useless and solid starters. Many of our fans and apparently coaches totally deluded themselves into lumping Hinton with guys like Andrus Peat, Kyle Murphy, Joshua Garnett, Walker Little, and Foster Sarell when the reality is that Casey Tucker is the most flattering realistic comparison and a service with a very good track record made the even less comparable comparisons above. His high school junior season was wiped out due to injury and then he had a shoulder surgery that prevented him from lifting weights or running the entire offseason heading into his senior year. When he did play it was at a level that led to the precipitous drop in his recruiting rankings. He may have dropped further were he not the son and brother of the Chris Hintons. Even during his recruitment there were whispers - some even mentioned in actual press reports - that he’s such a Renaissance Man/polymath that he might not be committed to football or have the right mentality. He’s been quoted as saying he hated football until he realized he wasn’t bad at it, which is quite foreboding about what happened to his confidence last year when he was most definitely bad at football.

Based on the combination of what we knew about him as a recruit plus what we’ve seen from him in the first two years of his college career, I think it’s more likely he sucks than it is that he’s ever good. If he does develop we shouldn’t hope for more than a Casey Tucker or Devery Hamilton. And with Hornibrook, Pogorelc, and McLaughlin on the bench my stomach dropped every game last season we assessed Hinton is a better option than any of those three. With Hornibrook it really was puzzling as he's been a competitive player for years now.

Totally agree re Hornibrook and Yikes! re Hinton. Thanks for the analysis. Fingers crossed that he emerges but expectations lowered.