(05-26-2022, 08:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The issue is getting zero points in mens basketball, and having a down year in womens volleyball. Yes, the fact that our scores get truncated after 15 hurts us, but it’s still better to have more sports than fewer, and if we displace a sport, it still increases the contribution of the sports that do count. But because the mandatory included sports (men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, and women’s volleyball) can’t be displaced scoring zero (basketball) or having a disappointing season (volleyball) can’t be made up for by scoring well in something else and displacing that score.
I'd say that's a fallacy.
When I did the spread sheet earlier in the year (using 2021 Spring scores, not 2022 Spring scores), Texas got 68 more points in required sports than Stanford. Compared to winning all 4 required sports, Stanford lost 189 points (ie, scored 211). Stanford lost 236.5 points because of the 15-sport limit, while Texas lost none.
Having more sports means that a good year in Women's Golf can help to cover for a lesser year in Women's Tennis. But MVB won't help unless Stanford makes it to the finals. BVB won't help much unless Stanford makes it to the semifinals.
At that earlier time, I did a What-If, overly-optimistic Even-if scenario in which Stanford won WGolf, WWP, WRow, BSB, and BVB. That let Stanford get to the points that Texas was looking like. At least one miracle didn't happen. While we're cheering for Softball to advance further, they've assured Stanford of at least 14 more DC points than I had counted on (64, displacing a 50). (Our next scores to lose are 53.5 (W indoor T&F), 54 (Fencing), 55 (Wrestling))
But, in the what-if scenario, I only adjusted Stanford scores, not Texas. Stanford knocking off #1 Texas in WRow would probably only cost them 10 points.
If Texas finishes at their #1 ranking in MT&F, they get an additional 27 points over last year.
If Texas finishes at their #1 ranking in WT&F, they get an additional 30 points.
If Texas finishes at their #6 ranking in MGolf, they get another 21 points.
If Texas finishes at their #19 ranking in Baseball, they lose 33 points.
Texas is still going in Softball (but have a loss in the Super Regional; if they lose, they get the same number of points as last year).
To gain a few points, MGolf (ranked 17), Men(#19) or Women(#23) T&F would have to be 17th or better (57 points so a net of 4 or fewer each).
Remember, I was doing a what-if, not predicting.
If Stanford finishes at their #3 ranking in Baseball, they lose 17 points to the what-if scenario, gaining 5 points over last year.
If Stanford Softball loses in the Super Regional (9th), that's a wash in the what-if scenario (I already adjusted for that), gaining 14 points over last year.
If Stanford Softball wins in the Super Regional, that's an additional 9 points at least (7th) up to an additional 34 (1st) (on top of the what-if)
I still don't see much of a chance for Stanford. If WRow and BSB should win a NC, Stanford is still short. If Softball should win a NC also, then Texas would still beat Stanford if they perform at their rankings in the other sports, but it would get really interesting.
I have Michigan about 100 points behind Stanford. North Carolina and Florida more than 100 points further behind.
I get the feeling we'll see a video from a 1994 movie....