06-04-2022, 01:31 PM
Its a good narrative, but I think it is a “just so” story. The median tenure of a head football coach is about four years. If we are attributing Shaw’s success 7 years after Harbaugh’s departure to the “imprint” he left, then when Harbaugh took over in 2007, the team would have still had DNA going back to Tyrone Willingham.
I think there have been two changes specifically to the college football landscape that have happened in the last few years that Shaw has not dealt with well, and that have degraded the talent on the field.
The first is the adoption of an early signing period. This started in 2017, which is the start of the significant decline in both recruiting and the product on the field. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 2018 class was ranked 40, the worst since the 12-person 2013 class. I think Shaw has adjusted, and the 22 class was finally large and well rounded. But toward the late teens, we were abominably late to offer recruits, we didn’t have them come for official visits until after the signing period, and we were perennially under the scholarship limit. Also, we struggled to recruit defensive linemen (and to a lesser extent OL) and, not surprisingly, the defense generally suffered, and the defensive line sucked. This was a self-inflicted error, and probably the best example of Shaw is stubborn and slow to adopt (much better than the idea that he doesn’t change the offense, which is unrecognizeable compared to 10 years ago).
The second issue that Shaw has struggled with is the transfer portal, and the general move towards players leaving programs earlier, whether routinely going to the NFL after three strong seasons, or graduate transferring (or transferring without losing eligibility). We will never be beneficiaries of the transfer portal, and while I know Sam McFadden has been a strong advocate of scouring the portal for opportunities, I don’t think it will be much more than an occasional bonus (like landing Fields), certainly not a Lomb-term solution. But what I think Shaw can and must do better is stopping the bleeding of key fifth years who transfer out. The idea of intellectual brutality is absolutely dependent on having our players on the field be juniors, seniors, and fifth years, with the occasional McCaffrey or Skov coming in as freshmen and dominating by their second year. Yes, it takes players time to learn the playbook (though I think that’s a bit overrated; the best players, especially on defense, develop instinct from experience), but they also need to develop physically, and having fifth year players transfer out (and often thrive for our opponents) is painful to watch. Shaw needs to do better here; better planning for graduate school admissions at Stanford, better planning for to make sure the guys we want to come back know it and are actively recruited to stay. Again, its good we have a full 85 person roster, which meant not every senior from last year could come back. But retaining a number of players who left over the guys who were enabled to come back was would have made me a bit more hopeful going into next year.
The issue will lessen somewhat in a a couple of years when the COVID year rolls off, but it is still going to be necessary to manage the roster well.
There are other issues brewing (like NIl) that might also affect us, and that will require more agility on the part of our staff than they have shown recently to ensure that we are not adversely affected. Unlike many people here, I don’t think this is an issue of terminal decline. Shaw has demonstrated that he can win (as recently as two seasons ago, or three full seasons ago if you want to throw 2020 out). With 12 games, college Football is an inherently noisy sport, and no trend goes forever.
BC
I think there have been two changes specifically to the college football landscape that have happened in the last few years that Shaw has not dealt with well, and that have degraded the talent on the field.
The first is the adoption of an early signing period. This started in 2017, which is the start of the significant decline in both recruiting and the product on the field. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 2018 class was ranked 40, the worst since the 12-person 2013 class. I think Shaw has adjusted, and the 22 class was finally large and well rounded. But toward the late teens, we were abominably late to offer recruits, we didn’t have them come for official visits until after the signing period, and we were perennially under the scholarship limit. Also, we struggled to recruit defensive linemen (and to a lesser extent OL) and, not surprisingly, the defense generally suffered, and the defensive line sucked. This was a self-inflicted error, and probably the best example of Shaw is stubborn and slow to adopt (much better than the idea that he doesn’t change the offense, which is unrecognizeable compared to 10 years ago).
The second issue that Shaw has struggled with is the transfer portal, and the general move towards players leaving programs earlier, whether routinely going to the NFL after three strong seasons, or graduate transferring (or transferring without losing eligibility). We will never be beneficiaries of the transfer portal, and while I know Sam McFadden has been a strong advocate of scouring the portal for opportunities, I don’t think it will be much more than an occasional bonus (like landing Fields), certainly not a Lomb-term solution. But what I think Shaw can and must do better is stopping the bleeding of key fifth years who transfer out. The idea of intellectual brutality is absolutely dependent on having our players on the field be juniors, seniors, and fifth years, with the occasional McCaffrey or Skov coming in as freshmen and dominating by their second year. Yes, it takes players time to learn the playbook (though I think that’s a bit overrated; the best players, especially on defense, develop instinct from experience), but they also need to develop physically, and having fifth year players transfer out (and often thrive for our opponents) is painful to watch. Shaw needs to do better here; better planning for graduate school admissions at Stanford, better planning for to make sure the guys we want to come back know it and are actively recruited to stay. Again, its good we have a full 85 person roster, which meant not every senior from last year could come back. But retaining a number of players who left over the guys who were enabled to come back was would have made me a bit more hopeful going into next year.
The issue will lessen somewhat in a a couple of years when the COVID year rolls off, but it is still going to be necessary to manage the roster well.
There are other issues brewing (like NIl) that might also affect us, and that will require more agility on the part of our staff than they have shown recently to ensure that we are not adversely affected. Unlike many people here, I don’t think this is an issue of terminal decline. Shaw has demonstrated that he can win (as recently as two seasons ago, or three full seasons ago if you want to throw 2020 out). With 12 games, college Football is an inherently noisy sport, and no trend goes forever.
BC