(06-25-2022, 07:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants are 8-7 since I made the post calling for them to be sellers at the trade deadline and they are tied for the last Wild Card spot with the Brewers. This is not a pace that will win a Wild Card spot over Fodgers/Padres, Brewers/Cardinals, or Braves, and I find it comical that people here entertained the Giants possibly winning the division a couple weeks ago. They may "only" be 6.5 GB, but the metrics demonstrate they aren't that good and aren't going to perform much better. You can't overcome bad defense and being the slowest team in the game.
The best news since that post on June 9 is Rodon has been dominant and Pederson hasn't fallen off. Those two, along with maybe Dominic Leone and Jake Junis when he returns, are legit trade assets, and Rodon might be the most valuable trade asset available in all of MLB this year.
Looking at the performance of the Giants ballyhooed prospects this year, almost every single one of them is struggling to demonstrate why they are top prospects. The only ones performing to par after after being labeled top prospects are #1 Luciano (no on IL) in Eugene and #2 Harrison (returning to form after one bad outing at AA Richmond).
Look at these numbers...
#3 OF Luis Matos (A Eugene) 134 AB .187/.260/.499 1 HR, 1 SB
#4 SP Will Bednar (A San Jose) 43.0 IP 4.19 ERA, 7 HR, 22 BB, 51K (silver lining is only 1.09 WHIP even with so many BB)
#5 OF Heliot Ramos (AAA Sacramento) 217 AB .217/.312/.644 6 HR, 2 SB
#6 OF Jairo Pomares (A Eugene) 167 AB .228/.299/.724 8 HR, 0 SB
#7 C Patrick Bailey (A Eugene) 131 AB .198/.318/.344 5 HR, 0 SB
#8 OF Hunter Bishop (A Eugene) 217 AB .226/.317/.718 9 HR, 16 SB
#9 SP Matt Mikulski (A San Jose) 53.2 IP. 5.02 ERA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 57K
#10 SS Aeverson (A San Jose) 253 AB .281/.351/.792 7 HR, 5 SB
What's the point of going any further? You can already see the only Top 10 prospect showing consistent promise above A ball is Kyle Harrison. Sure, Luciano is probably close to getting promoted to Richmond, but none of the others is dominating their league after doing whatever they did to earn Top 10 prospects status. Looking at the stats, Hunter Bishop profiles as the best athlete with power of all of them, but can a guy hitting .226 be a legit MLB regular if he strikes out 85 times in 217 ABs in Eugene? This is a higher K rate than Bart had in Sacramento that translated to a 54% K rate in MLB.
The guy putting up the best numbers in the organization not named Marco Luciano is 3B Casey Schmitt, and for some reason he is only #13 on the prospect list, but he too is only in Eugene. The guy y'all rave about, David Villar isn't even considered a Top 30 Giants prospect according to MLB.
Translation: The Giants need more better prospects more than they need to hold on to expiring contracts that aren't going to allow them to make a playoff push of consequence in 2022. Anyone with eyes can see the Fodgers, Padres, Braves, and Cardinals are better, and the Brewers probably are as well. The Phillies seem to have even fewer trade assets than the Giants, so they likely aren't a threat. The prospects the Giants have aren't good enough to reel in any players in trades that will make them better than the teams they must surpass, so how does doing anything other than selling make sense?
I personally don't see selling as a bad thing or giving up on the season. I see it as a way to fortify yourself to be better in the future and cashing in assets for more than you paid for them.
We should just stop having opinions and adopt yours. But then again, no. I’ll start with the prospects. Many of the hitters you list are at Eugene. Read an article a while ago about that league. Hitting was way way down across the board - why? Atrocious weather for one thing. And difficult travel.
Matos is 20. 2.6 years younger than league average. Pomares 21. 1.3 below league average. Both off to bad starts. Completely understandable given the jump, their youth and the conditions.
Bailey is a switch hitting catcher. A rare commodity. Again got off to very slow start. No question his bat is lagging. But no reason to give up on him.
Aeverson Arteaga (I guess your on a first name basis) is 19. He’s 2.1 years younger than low A average. Numbers are pretty good considering that fact.
Bishop went more than 2 years playing very little baseball. Injuries and Covid. He’s behind, no question. Got off to a horrific start. But he hit a little better in May and he’s had a pretty good June.
Ramos is 22 in AAA. 6.9 years under league average. He’s just been on the radar so long that he seems older. It’s folly to suggest he’s a bust. He has the tools. He has some time to refine them. Patience.
Will all these and the others you lambast be major league players someday? Of course not. Every list of top 30 prospects over time is littered with those that don’t make it. Which is why depth in a farm system is important. Zaidi has improved the Giants depth tremendously. And yes, they need and will seek “more better” prospects. As do the other 29 organizations.
The Giants are, and I suspect will be, in a group of about 5 teams fighting for 3 spots. Dodgers/Padres (division loser) Brewers/Cardinals (ditto) Braves. Phillies.
Moves will be made at the deadline that will make a difference. It is possible Giants tank between now and then. But I doubt it.
You state that the “metrics suggest the giants aren’t “that good”, which I take to mean not as good as their record. But they are plus 40. (By comparison- Cards plus 59 Braves plus 44, Phillies plus 30, Brewers plus 10) Their expected W-L is actually a game better than their actual record. They’ve been poor in one run games.
As for the “folly” of suggesting they can win the division - well it was folly last year. And while I agree it’s highly unlikely, because I do think Dodgers and Pads are better, I’m not giving up the possibility. Too many games left. Too many possibilities.
Bottom line - you don’t have a freaking clue what you are talking about. But they are 8-7 since your wise proclamation. So, you find that as a time to pat yourself on the back (doesn’t your shoulder hurt from that?).