[lex24]

I'm not the one telling people they must agree with me, because I'm not writing that those who disagree with me are clueless, or whatever other term you want to use to impugn someone's credibility and/or intelligence. I'm simply throwing out my opinion because that's what discussion boards are about, discussing things. Now, with that out of the way...

https://theathletic.com/3384884/2022/06/...um=twitter

Going into this season, I was willing to trust: 
1) The organization that Joey Bart would be a passable replacement for Buster Posey.
2) My belief the Giants needed a proven RH hitter like Castellanos or Story, was misplaced because 35 yo Darren Ruf was the answer. 
3) Letting Kris Bryant walk was the right move.
4) Signing Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb instead of Gausman and two others was better for THIS season (I could buy not signing Gausman would be better for future seasons beyond 2022, but coming off 107 wins, you should want to build on that, right?)

What has happened? Bart was demoted to AAA. Most observers see Ruf has not been the RH hitting answer. Gausman would be way, way better than Cobb, DeSclafani, or Wood. Passing on Bryant looks smart so far (and Caleb Killian has a 10+ ERA in 2 Cubs starts). So 3/4 of the things I disagreed with but was willing to trust Farhan and co. to get right, have not worked at all. It's time for the Giants to own this and start planning for the future, IMO.

I'm not down on bringing the Brandons back, or even relying on Longoria in last year of his deal, because who else were the Giants going to get that made a lot of sense?

As for the prospect performance numbers, the age thing means nothing without context. Where is the evidence to show that players who are younger than average in a league will all of a sudden perform better when older? The guys in Eugene are not teenagers. When I was 10, I played in a league against 13 year olds. THAT was a big deal; 20 year olds playing against 22 year olds, not so much. Moreover, the Giants have an absolutely atrocious history of developing position player prospects who stick in MLB. Granted, some of the few they have developed, were World Series winning caliber all at one time (homegrown infield of Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, Panik), but the overall track record is just dreadful, so excuse me if I want to see Giants prospects doing a little more than hit for an average of .237 vs. a league avg. of .227 to feel confident they are actual future MLB players of consequence.

The Giants were a contender through April. They are pretenders after because their flaws have been exposed. They are old, slow, injury prone, allow too much soft contact to turn into runs and don't score enough with their own soft contact. They are boring, and very little you see from the current team gives you optimism for the future. I'd rather be under .500 with exciting players who will get better, knowing the team is building toward winning in the future, than see the current cast pretend to be contenders. Of course, my preference is to see the 5th most valuable team in MLB spend like they want to win by having a payroll at least up to the luxury tax threshold, not $100M below it.

Looking ahead, the Giants right now have several guys y'all want replaced signed for 2023 but just one player signed in 2024 (plus several players under team control), DeSclafani for $12M, a contract that could easily be bought out. How are they going to build out a roster with so many expiring contracts, and be anywhere near contention in 2024 without a bevy of prospects to give a shot at playing or being used as trade assets? Even if Luciano, Harrison, and Schmitt are ready in 2023, they will need more than the existing prospect pool is ready to provide. It is a PIPE DREAM that the Giants are signing Aaron Judge with a roster devoid of top talent beyond 2023. It wouldn't even make sense if they convince themselves to spend the money on him as a player, in a vacuum. The only big Free Agents it might make sense to sign are Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, or maybe Rodon (after they trade him). :)

Some of you think I'm being a prisoner of the moment, impatient, pessimistic, or whatever. The fact is I'm looking at the bigger picture in the context of the current moment, and drawing my conclusions accordingly, based on a goal of wining another World Series or at least having an entertaining team.

You truly are going to compare little league to professional baseball?  Age differential in the minors is a big deal. Matos Pomares Ramos being well under matters.  For the same reason when a guy is 26 and tearing it up in low A, it’s taken with a grain of salt.  Further, you ignored the other issues vis a vis Eugene.  You don’t give up on top prospects  that have moved up more quickly than most simply because they are struggling early on.  They moved up earlier cause of their skill sets. You work to refine them Some will make the Show.  Some won’t.  Time will tell. That true across essentially every organization.  Which, again, is why depth in the minors matters. 

As to the remainder, no one on this thread suggests the Giants are a great team. Average to hopefully a bit above.  But that may be enough to garner a WC.  Then anything can happen. (Not one of the Giants Championship team was the best regular season team. In fact they were underdogs in at least 8 of the 9 series they won).

Turning to the roster - here are the players whose contracts expire after ‘23. Rodon (assuming he exercises option) Flores, Pederson, Casali, Boyd, Leone, Alvarez. Belt Of those, if im Zaidi I’m looking to see if I can extend Pederson, Flores and Casali. Be nice to keep Leone, but the fact is bullpens are essentially revolving doors. Boyd and Alvarez can be let go. Zaidi will have to add SP. that will be job 1. Rodon will, I suspect be too rich for their blood (and he’s somewhat iffy on a long term contract due to injury history). Belt won’t garner much FA interest. Too many injuries. If they want him back, they can sign him to a short term deal. Probably not costly. The FO will have tons of money to spend. One thing I do agree with you - they need to be willing to greatly increase payroll. I don’t know if they will. Hopefully, yes.

Finally, perhaps you would not have drawn the response you did, had it not come with your enthusiastic patting of your own back….

It’s a long season.  Deadline shall bring changes.  And hoping to add on.

I’m the guy that predicted  80 wins before the season.  But the thing is, I want to be wrong.  And I think I will be.

[lex24]

I'm not the one telling people they must agree with me, because I'm not writing that those who disagree with me are clueless, or whatever other term you want to use to impugn someone's credibility and/or intelligence. I'm simply throwing out my opinion because that's what discussion boards are about, discussing things. Now, with that out of the way...

https://theathletic.com/3384884/2022/06/...um=twitter

Going into this season, I was willing to trust: 
1) The organization that Joey Bart would be a passable replacement for Buster Posey.
2) My belief the Giants needed a proven RH hitter like Castellanos or Story, was misplaced because 35 yo Darren Ruf was the answer. 
3) Letting Kris Bryant walk was the right move.
4) Signing Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb instead of Gausman and two others was better for THIS season (I could buy not signing Gausman would be better for future seasons beyond 2022, but coming off 107 wins, you should want to build on that, right?)

What has happened? Bart was demoted to AAA. Most observers see Ruf has not been the RH hitting answer. Gausman would be way, way better than Cobb, DeSclafani, or Wood. Passing on Bryant looks smart so far (and Caleb Killian has a 10+ ERA in 2 Cubs starts). So 3/4 of the things I disagreed with but was willing to trust Farhan and co. to get right, have not worked at all. It's time for the Giants to own this and start planning for the future, IMO.

I'm not down on bringing the Brandons back, or even relying on Longoria in last year of his deal, because who else were the Giants going to get that made a lot of sense?

As for the prospect performance numbers, the age thing means nothing without context. Where is the evidence to show that players who are younger than average in a league will all of a sudden perform better when older? The guys in Eugene are not teenagers. When I was 10, I played in a league against 13 year olds. THAT was a big deal; 20 year olds playing against 22 year olds, not so much. Moreover, the Giants have an absolutely atrocious history of developing position player prospects who stick in MLB. Granted, some of the few they have developed, were World Series winning caliber all at one time (homegrown infield of Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, Panik), but the overall track record is just dreadful, so excuse me if I want to see Giants prospects doing a little more than hit for an average of .237 vs. a league avg. of .227 to feel confident they are actual future MLB players of consequence.

The Giants were a contender through April. They are pretenders after because their flaws have been exposed. They are old, slow, injury prone, allow too much soft contact to turn into runs and don't score enough with their own soft contact. They are boring, and very little you see from the current team gives you optimism for the future. I'd rather be under .500 with exciting players who will get better, knowing the team is building toward winning in the future, than see the current cast pretend to be contenders. Of course, my preference is to see the 5th most valuable team in MLB spend like they want to win by having a payroll at least up to the luxury tax threshold, not $100M below it.

Looking ahead, the Giants right now have several guys y'all want replaced signed for 2023 but just one player signed in 2024 (plus several players under team control), DeSclafani for $12M, a contract that could easily be bought out. How are they going to build out a roster with so many expiring contracts, and be anywhere near contention in 2024 without a bevy of prospects to give a shot at playing or being used as trade assets? Even if Luciano, Harrison, and Schmitt are ready in 2023, they will need more than the existing prospect pool is ready to provide. It is a PIPE DREAM that the Giants are signing Aaron Judge with a roster devoid of top talent beyond 2023. It wouldn't even make sense if they convince themselves to spend the money on him as a player, in a vacuum. The only big Free Agents it might make sense to sign are Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, or maybe Rodon (after they trade him). :)

Some of you think I'm being a prisoner of the moment, impatient, pessimistic, or whatever. The fact is I'm looking at the bigger picture in the context of the current moment, and drawing my conclusions accordingly, based on a goal of wining another World Series or at least having an entertaining team.

You truly are going to compare little league to professional baseball?  Age differential in the minors is a big deal. Matos Pomares Ramos being well under matters.  For the same reason when a guy is 26 and tearing it up in low A, it’s taken with a grain of salt.  Further, you ignored the other issues vis a vis Eugene.  You don’t give up on top prospects  that have moved up more quickly than most simply because they are struggling early on.  They moved up earlier cause of their skill sets. You work to refine them Some will make the Show.  Some won’t.  Time will tell. That true across essentially every organization.  Which, again, is why depth in the minors matters. 

As to the remainder, no one on this thread suggests the Giants are a great team. Average to hopefully a bit above.  But that may be enough to garner a WC.  Then anything can happen. (Not one of the Giants Championship team was the best regular season team. In fact they were underdogs in at least 8 of the 9 series they won).

Turning to the roster - here are the players whose contracts expire after ‘23. Rodon (assuming he exercises option) Flores, Pederson, Casali, Boyd, Leone, Alvarez. Belt Of those, if im Zaidi I’m looking to see if I can extend Pederson, Flores and Casali. Be nice to keep Leone, but the fact is bullpens are essentially revolving doors. Boyd and Alvarez can be let go. Zaidi will have to add SP. that will be job 1. Rodon will, I suspect be too rich for their blood (and he’s somewhat iffy on a long term contract due to injury history). Belt won’t garner much FA interest. Too many injuries. If they want him back, they can sign him to a short term deal. Probably not costly. The FO will have tons of money to spend. One thing I do agree with you - they need to be willing to greatly increase payroll. I don’t know if they will. Hopefully, yes.

Finally, perhaps you would not have drawn the response you did, had it not come with your enthusiastic patting of your own back….

It’s a long season.  Deadline shall bring changes.  And hoping to add on.

I’m the guy that predicted  80 wins before the season.  But the thing is, I want to be wrong.  And I think I will be.