(06-28-2022, 05:57 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I think there is a grey area re: Giants spending and team building M.O.
First of all, what is the goal? To win, or generate revenue? Obviously, you want to do both, but I don't think Zaidi's approach - constant roster churn and fielding uninspiring players to win at the margins - is the best way to goose revenue.
If you want to inspire fans to be invested in your games, you pay for some shiny objects, like the Giants did before they won 3 WS in 5 years. First it was Bonds, then their new stadium. Then they leveraged the homegrown infield, and starting Pitcher phenoms (Lincecum, Cain, Mad Bum) by savvy free agent signings and trades, while building fan attachments to the players.
The Giants Payroll rankings since 2000; [MLB Attendance ranking] (post season result)
2000: #17 [#3] (Lost NLDS)
2001: #15 [#2]
2002: #10 [#3] (Lost World Series)
2003: #9 [#3] (Lost NLDS)
2004: #9 [#5]
2005: #7 [#5]
2006: #10 [#7]
2007: #12 [#7]
2008: #17 [#11]
2009: #14 [#10]
2010: #10 [#9] (Won World Series)
2011: #8 [#3]
2012: #8 [#4] (Won World Series)
2013: #6 [#3]
2014: #7 [#4] (Won World Series)
2015: #5 [#3]
2016: #5 [#4] (Lost NLDS)
2017: #7 [#3]
2018: #2 [#4]
2019: #5 [#11]
2020: #8 [No data - pandemic]
2021: #14 [#12] (Lost NLDS)
2022: #13 [#12]
The data shows the Giants must have a Top 10 payroll to win in the-layoffs. The data shows the Giants must have a Top 10 payroll to have Top 10 attendance, after the novelty of the new stadium wore off. Fans aren't stupid. They can tell when the team is trying and when they should care. If the team doesn't care about winning, the fans won't show up. As it should be. Even when they don't win, fans show if they think the team is trying.
It is clear that the only big event that could explain the attendance drop after 2018 is the Giants beginning the Zaidi & Kapler era. That coincided with a roster full of old, uninspiring players, and the beginning of the high frequency player turnover to win at the margins era. The only year since 3rd & King opened that the Giants had a Top 10 payroll without Top 10 attendance was 2019, the year players became commodities.
Even winning 107 games didn't bring fans back, suggesting Giants fans want to go see stars, or at least want to see guys who have won before supplemented by spending on players who can help. This is exactly what the Giants didn't do after 2021. How interesting that the data actually backs up what most Giants fans commenting on the Baggarly piece said.
Every fan the Giants get in their stadium is worth $128 in marginal revenue. They are on pace to be down about 750k in attendance from 2018 to 2022. That means they are losing out on about $93M in revenue. I submit that if they spent $35M more on payroll this season, not only would they be a firm Wild Card contender, they would also be averaging at least 5k more per game and be on pace to generate more profit than they will going cheap.
Conclusions:
- The Giants aren't maximizing revenue by being frugal
- They may have found a frugal way to win more than they lose, but even winning 107 that way doesn't translate to butts in seats or playoff success
- The sweet spot for the Giants to contend for championships and Top 7 attendance is a payroll in the Top 5-8 in MLB
Investors know you make money by spending it wisely. All this is to say Farhan Zaidi very well might be the one who wants his frugal way to work and convinced the ownership to let him do it. Hell, they invested $70M in their Arizona Development facility, so it's not like the Giants aren't making investments to baseball operations. They seem to be making the ones preferred by the President of Baseball Operations, so I am not at all convinced Giants ownership is dictating a lower payroll as much as Farhan is just following his plan and the owners back him on it.
But at the end of the day, if the Giants owners in fact care about profits, Farhan is going to be faced with taking ownership of the attendance attrition sooner than later, and maybe realize that it takes spending money to make it, regardless of W-L record.
So, your suggestion is that a guy pulled from LA (which has had a payroll in the top 3 for years and always seems to have the money to get their guy) went to ownership and said something to the effect: “I don’t want a large payroll because….” First explain the logic in that. Why would any Baseball operations/GM NOT want a big budget to work with? Second, provide the “because”.
Finally, perhaps some financial figures will help your analysis:
Dodgers. Value 4.07 Billion. ‘21 revenue 565 million. Operating income - loss of 7.9 Milllion.
Giants. Value. 3.5 Billion. Revenue. 384 Million. Operating income 32 million.
Dodgers have an enormous TV deal.