[SamuelMcF]

I hadn't really looked at the whole 2023 recruiting board until now.  Although the recruiting cycle still could end up just fine, it seems like there are significant risks.  The biggest is QB, which is the reason I'm anxiously awaiting Lonergan's decision.  His arrival could turn the tide of negativity on this board and help revive the team's fortunes by 2024.  If he were to choose South Carolina, I don't know who else Stanford might land this cycle, but nothing I've heard seems promising.  

I am cautiously optimistic.

Stanford has 10 current commits, including three players ranked 4-star in the 247 composite (all well outside the top 100 whale territory).  You could argue whether these three are all truly 4-star players and whether there are more who should qualify, but I need an objective standard, and this one is easy to use.  You also could really call this a class of 9 plus a punter because the COVID rules have made specialist scholarships even less common than in the olden days.  Stanford didn't have any major conference competition for this guy (and given the conference situation, Stanford may not count as a major conference school either).  

It IS a class of 9. Aidan Flintoft is 1) a kicker and 2) a PWO.

Stanford has approximately 16 players on the board who I would consider at least Plan A-/B+.  The list of 16 is on the generous side as not all of these guys even have a profile on all the main recruiting sites and a few are either NR or outside the top 1000 in the 247 composite.  Maybe there are stealth recruits or even non-stealths who I overlooked, but this is the universe I found.  And I'm not sure all these guys are even viable, but I'm trying to be inclusive.   Here they are:  Lonergan, Lyons, Clegg, Link, Su'a, Esera, Thomason, Snowden, Newsom, Minch, Yamauchi, Brandt, Geweniger, Ray, Fanoimoana, and Hughes.  

The biggest issue I see is that there are only six uncommitted composite 4-star recruits on Stanford's board.  That means Stanford is likely capped at nine 4-star recruits in this class, and at most two whales.  You can safely bet the final number will be lower than that.

The other issue I see is that the 90+ offers Shaw made this cycle don't seem likely to net a full class.  If we assume a class of 20 (and that's really a guess because I haven't crunched any numbers at all), then Shaw will need to land 10 of the remaining 16 on the board.  That's a tall order, especially in such a challenging recruiting environment for Stanford.  I'm guessing that Shaw will need to dip even further into the pool, and from history we know that, with minor exceptions, offers we see after June mostly tend to be the Plan B type.

I don't want to sound the alarm just yet because, as you can see, there are a number of possibilities still on the board.  But I'm getting a little concerned that Stanford will have trouble matching the quality/quantity of 2022's class, which itself was only what I would call "pretty good."  I'd like all your thoughts on whether I'm off base here.

You are missing at least 6 uncommitted players: Jacobe Johnson, Cayden Lee, Kelby Valsin, Trey Wilson, Tre Williams, and Jordan Matthews. 4 of those 6 recently took OVs.

I think our odds of landing 10+ out of these 22 are pretty good, and "dipping even further into the pool" will be minimal.

We wouldn't have extended 92(!!!) offers for a class smaller than 20. I do agree with you that top-end quality may be a bit lackluster, though that depends on a few guys still on the board and we'll have to see how rankings shake out otherwise. Some "non-4* composite" commits are 4*s by multiple services (Pale and Irvin are both actually 4*s by 3 of the 4). Quantity, addressing all positions, and not "dipping even further into the pool" for guys who aren't credible P5 recruits is just as important to me.

[SamuelMcF]

I hadn't really looked at the whole 2023 recruiting board until now.  Although the recruiting cycle still could end up just fine, it seems like there are significant risks.  The biggest is QB, which is the reason I'm anxiously awaiting Lonergan's decision.  His arrival could turn the tide of negativity on this board and help revive the team's fortunes by 2024.  If he were to choose South Carolina, I don't know who else Stanford might land this cycle, but nothing I've heard seems promising.  

I am cautiously optimistic.

Stanford has 10 current commits, including three players ranked 4-star in the 247 composite (all well outside the top 100 whale territory).  You could argue whether these three are all truly 4-star players and whether there are more who should qualify, but I need an objective standard, and this one is easy to use.  You also could really call this a class of 9 plus a punter because the COVID rules have made specialist scholarships even less common than in the olden days.  Stanford didn't have any major conference competition for this guy (and given the conference situation, Stanford may not count as a major conference school either).  

It IS a class of 9. Aidan Flintoft is 1) a kicker and 2) a PWO.

Stanford has approximately 16 players on the board who I would consider at least Plan A-/B+.  The list of 16 is on the generous side as not all of these guys even have a profile on all the main recruiting sites and a few are either NR or outside the top 1000 in the 247 composite.  Maybe there are stealth recruits or even non-stealths who I overlooked, but this is the universe I found.  And I'm not sure all these guys are even viable, but I'm trying to be inclusive.   Here they are:  Lonergan, Lyons, Clegg, Link, Su'a, Esera, Thomason, Snowden, Newsom, Minch, Yamauchi, Brandt, Geweniger, Ray, Fanoimoana, and Hughes.  

The biggest issue I see is that there are only six uncommitted composite 4-star recruits on Stanford's board.  That means Stanford is likely capped at nine 4-star recruits in this class, and at most two whales.  You can safely bet the final number will be lower than that.

The other issue I see is that the 90+ offers Shaw made this cycle don't seem likely to net a full class.  If we assume a class of 20 (and that's really a guess because I haven't crunched any numbers at all), then Shaw will need to land 10 of the remaining 16 on the board.  That's a tall order, especially in such a challenging recruiting environment for Stanford.  I'm guessing that Shaw will need to dip even further into the pool, and from history we know that, with minor exceptions, offers we see after June mostly tend to be the Plan B type.

I don't want to sound the alarm just yet because, as you can see, there are a number of possibilities still on the board.  But I'm getting a little concerned that Stanford will have trouble matching the quality/quantity of 2022's class, which itself was only what I would call "pretty good."  I'd like all your thoughts on whether I'm off base here.

You are missing at least 6 uncommitted players: Jacobe Johnson, Cayden Lee, Kelby Valsin, Trey Wilson, Tre Williams, and Jordan Matthews. 4 of those 6 recently took OVs.

I think our odds of landing 10+ out of these 22 are pretty good, and "dipping even further into the pool" will be minimal.

We wouldn't have extended 92(!!!) offers for a class smaller than 20. I do agree with you that top-end quality may be a bit lackluster, though that depends on a few guys still on the board and we'll have to see how rankings shake out otherwise. Some "non-4* composite" commits are 4*s by multiple services (Pale and Irvin are both actually 4*s by 3 of the 4). Quantity, addressing all positions, and not "dipping even further into the pool" for guys who aren't credible P5 recruits is just as important to me.