07-10-2022, 03:35 PM
My gut tells me that you guys are both right and that the analysis overvalues time outs towards the end of games. I think a lost time out is probably worth less than .03 WP, but I don’t have the analysis to back that up.
Circumstances definitely matter, but the point of comparison was a third and 1 at midfield with the offense up by 3 points, midway through the third quarter. While it is not the highest leverage situation you can think up, the difference between third and one and third and six is pretty pronounced, because if the offense gets the first down it can move into a position to pad its lead, while if they don’t get first down, they will have to punt. Under most circumstances, the DoG will be less damaging than that, so the fact that under those circumstances the DoG is only worth .02 WP suggests that in almost all situations, the time out will be more valuable than avoiding the penalty, of the value of the time out is correctly measured (which, as I said, I’m not sure).
BC
Circumstances definitely matter, but the point of comparison was a third and 1 at midfield with the offense up by 3 points, midway through the third quarter. While it is not the highest leverage situation you can think up, the difference between third and one and third and six is pretty pronounced, because if the offense gets the first down it can move into a position to pad its lead, while if they don’t get first down, they will have to punt. Under most circumstances, the DoG will be less damaging than that, so the fact that under those circumstances the DoG is only worth .02 WP suggests that in almost all situations, the time out will be more valuable than avoiding the penalty, of the value of the time out is correctly measured (which, as I said, I’m not sure).
BC