07-18-2022, 06:29 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2022, 06:30 AM by OutsiderFan.)
Looking at the NL WC picture at the All Star Break...
The Braves or Mets will take the first WC spot for certain. They are demonstrably better than any of the other WC contenders. The Marlins seem to have fallen out of it a bit, now 5 GB back of the Giants for the #5 spot. Given the Padres seem to be in typical collapse mode, it's a four horse race between the Padres, Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants down the stretch for two spots.
The Cardinals have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB, with a .453 win percentage. The Phillies have the 3rd easiest in MLB, with a .473 win percentage. The Padres have the 16th toughest remaining schedule, with a .503 win percentage. The Giants have the 11th toughest, with a .507 win percentage.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a statistically insignificant edge over the Cardinals for the 3rd WC spot, and a less than 10% better chance than the Phillies. But what's weird is Fangraphs gives the Brewers a big advantage (64%-36%) over the Cardinals to win the Central despite the easier Cardinals schedule and the fact they are just .5 GB at the break.
July 21 to August 2 at 6pm ET will be intense and frenetic for the MLB world.
The Mets and Yankees are expected to make trade offers for Juan Soto. Will be interesting to see if he gets moved by Aug. 2. The Yankees have by far the better farm system between the two.
The Braves or Mets will take the first WC spot for certain. They are demonstrably better than any of the other WC contenders. The Marlins seem to have fallen out of it a bit, now 5 GB back of the Giants for the #5 spot. Given the Padres seem to be in typical collapse mode, it's a four horse race between the Padres, Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants down the stretch for two spots.
The Cardinals have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB, with a .453 win percentage. The Phillies have the 3rd easiest in MLB, with a .473 win percentage. The Padres have the 16th toughest remaining schedule, with a .503 win percentage. The Giants have the 11th toughest, with a .507 win percentage.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a statistically insignificant edge over the Cardinals for the 3rd WC spot, and a less than 10% better chance than the Phillies. But what's weird is Fangraphs gives the Brewers a big advantage (64%-36%) over the Cardinals to win the Central despite the easier Cardinals schedule and the fact they are just .5 GB at the break.
July 21 to August 2 at 6pm ET will be intense and frenetic for the MLB world.
The Mets and Yankees are expected to make trade offers for Juan Soto. Will be interesting to see if he gets moved by Aug. 2. The Yankees have by far the better farm system between the two.