08-22-2022, 08:39 PM
Big year-to-year improvement for the OL is the single most important factor for the 2022 theory of the case on offense.
I don't view the offensive theory of the case as wishcasting as much as recognizing a clear pattern under Shaw. When the offense has a proven QB1 returning and that year's starting offensive line has multiple fourth year (or older) guys, good things happen. The years both conditions have applied have been 2011 (#3 Offensive FEI), 2013 (#21 Offensive FEI), 2015 (#2 Offensive FEI), 2018 (#37 Offensive FEI), and 2020 (#21 Offensive FEI). If Hinton remains a turnstile and the year-to-year improvement for the unit is evident but not dramatic, we still should expect a top 40 offense. If all my crowing about the importance of fourth year linemen comes to fruition, I think a top 25 FEI offense is easily attainable.
My concern about how far this can get us stems from my doubts it can translate into enough points to outscore offenses that get to play against our defense. The 2018 and 2020 Stanford offenses were talented, experienced, and efficient....and amounted to 28.4 and 29.3 points per game, respectively. In today's college football that's deeply mediocre. Even 32 points per game, which would be our best showing in half a decade, only would have been 38th in the country last year. I have doubts Shaw has it in him to unleash an offensive tempo/ferocity that can score at the levels now seen by great college football offenses. With our talent and seniority we should be able to really pour it on (I'm talking 36/37/38 points per game kind of offense) but that's just hard to imagine from the head coach we know. And with the state of the Stanford defense in recent years I'm just not sure a 30 point per game offense cuts the mustard.
Current mood on the season: for Stanford football to be good (8+ wins, banging on the door of top 25 relevance), we're going to need either miraculous improvement by the defense to be Lance Anderson's best in over half a decade or the offense to put points on the board somewhere in the vicinity of how they did in 2015. My guess is neither quite reaches that level and something mediocre (4-7 wins) is in the cards.
I don't view the offensive theory of the case as wishcasting as much as recognizing a clear pattern under Shaw. When the offense has a proven QB1 returning and that year's starting offensive line has multiple fourth year (or older) guys, good things happen. The years both conditions have applied have been 2011 (#3 Offensive FEI), 2013 (#21 Offensive FEI), 2015 (#2 Offensive FEI), 2018 (#37 Offensive FEI), and 2020 (#21 Offensive FEI). If Hinton remains a turnstile and the year-to-year improvement for the unit is evident but not dramatic, we still should expect a top 40 offense. If all my crowing about the importance of fourth year linemen comes to fruition, I think a top 25 FEI offense is easily attainable.
My concern about how far this can get us stems from my doubts it can translate into enough points to outscore offenses that get to play against our defense. The 2018 and 2020 Stanford offenses were talented, experienced, and efficient....and amounted to 28.4 and 29.3 points per game, respectively. In today's college football that's deeply mediocre. Even 32 points per game, which would be our best showing in half a decade, only would have been 38th in the country last year. I have doubts Shaw has it in him to unleash an offensive tempo/ferocity that can score at the levels now seen by great college football offenses. With our talent and seniority we should be able to really pour it on (I'm talking 36/37/38 points per game kind of offense) but that's just hard to imagine from the head coach we know. And with the state of the Stanford defense in recent years I'm just not sure a 30 point per game offense cuts the mustard.
Current mood on the season: for Stanford football to be good (8+ wins, banging on the door of top 25 relevance), we're going to need either miraculous improvement by the defense to be Lance Anderson's best in over half a decade or the offense to put points on the board somewhere in the vicinity of how they did in 2015. My guess is neither quite reaches that level and something mediocre (4-7 wins) is in the cards.