[Goose]

I think the distribution is bi-modal. It could be a UCLA blowout, where 18-20+ point delta would be reasonable, maybe down to 14 if Stanford is active in garbage time. It also could be a very close game if UCLA isn't motivated and the Stanford defense plays over their head again, like a 7 point game or less. I don't think a two touchdown delta itself is probable, but it splits the difference.

[Goose]

I think the distribution is bi-modal. It could be a UCLA blowout, where 18-20+ point delta would be reasonable, maybe down to 14 if Stanford is active in garbage time. It also could be a very close game if UCLA isn't motivated and the Stanford defense plays over their head again, like a 7 point game or less. I don't think a two touchdown delta itself is probable, but it splits the difference.