[msqueri]

Great post, BC. What your analysis elides though is the strong evidence aside from the culture portal that we have a culture of leaving. Stanford players in recent year go to the NFL as soon as it is even halfway plausible. While the transfer portal may be a national dynamic we can't control, almost everybody leaving for the NFL no matter what their prospects is highly unusual.

Dalton Schultz, Harrison Phillips, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Simi Fehoko, Connor Wedington, Kaden Smith, Colby Parkinson, Nate Herbig, Drew Dalman, Walker Little, Foster Sarell, Thomas Booker, Tucker Fisk, Scooter Harrington, Curtis Robinson, Justin Reid, Quenton Meeks, Paulson Adebo, and Davis Mills all left eligibility on the table to try their hand at the NFL, not to mention guys I'm probably forgetting (I'm not even counting fringier guys but important players like Malik Antoine and Thomas Schaffer), and that is just in the NFL drafts since 2018. Not a single one of those was a first round draft pick. In fact, Little and Arcega-Whiteside were the only ones who were even second round picks.

We also have guys leaving before they've even gotten to a fourth year on campus (without degrees) alarmingly often. Under Shaw Shaw the following players left after their third years: Andrus Peat (first round), Austin Hooper (third round), Solomon Thomas (first round), Christian McCaffrey (first round), Justin Reid (third round), Quenton Meeks (undrafted), Nate Herbig (undrafted), Simi Fehoko (fifth round), Kaden Smith (sixth round), Colby Parkinson (fourth round). That's a lot of leaving before the degree just to be Day 2/3/undrafted picks.

Last time I checked it out, in a three draft span we had 11 players declare compared to seven for USC, six for Washington, four for Arizona State, four for UCLA, three for Oregon, three for Oregon State, two for Colorado, two for Utah, two for Arizona, one for Washington State, and zero for Cal. It's not because we had that many more NFL prospects than anybody else. In those drafts Washington had 14 players drafted, Oregon 13, Utah 12, Stanford 12, USC 11, UCLA seven, Arizona State five, Colorado five, Oregon State five, Cal four, Washington State three, and Arizona three.

It's quite clear that Stanford players have been bolting at the first chance they can. The transfer portal is part of that, though you're right there are reasons for it outside our control. But it's just one symptom of a larger culture of leaving. The NFL departures of guys like Mills, Sarell, Dalman, Parkinson, and Fehoko is what makes most clear Stanford players no longer have loyalty or sense of team. Those aren't departures other programs see. A healthy program might have lost two of those guys.

[msqueri]

Great post, BC. What your analysis elides though is the strong evidence aside from the culture portal that we have a culture of leaving. Stanford players in recent year go to the NFL as soon as it is even halfway plausible. While the transfer portal may be a national dynamic we can't control, almost everybody leaving for the NFL no matter what their prospects is highly unusual.

Dalton Schultz, Harrison Phillips, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Simi Fehoko, Connor Wedington, Kaden Smith, Colby Parkinson, Nate Herbig, Drew Dalman, Walker Little, Foster Sarell, Thomas Booker, Tucker Fisk, Scooter Harrington, Curtis Robinson, Justin Reid, Quenton Meeks, Paulson Adebo, and Davis Mills all left eligibility on the table to try their hand at the NFL, not to mention guys I'm probably forgetting (I'm not even counting fringier guys but important players like Malik Antoine and Thomas Schaffer), and that is just in the NFL drafts since 2018. Not a single one of those was a first round draft pick. In fact, Little and Arcega-Whiteside were the only ones who were even second round picks.

We also have guys leaving before they've even gotten to a fourth year on campus (without degrees) alarmingly often. Under Shaw Shaw the following players left after their third years: Andrus Peat (first round), Austin Hooper (third round), Solomon Thomas (first round), Christian McCaffrey (first round), Justin Reid (third round), Quenton Meeks (undrafted), Nate Herbig (undrafted), Simi Fehoko (fifth round), Kaden Smith (sixth round), Colby Parkinson (fourth round). That's a lot of leaving before the degree just to be Day 2/3/undrafted picks.

Last time I checked it out, in a three draft span we had 11 players declare compared to seven for USC, six for Washington, four for Arizona State, four for UCLA, three for Oregon, three for Oregon State, two for Colorado, two for Utah, two for Arizona, one for Washington State, and zero for Cal. It's not because we had that many more NFL prospects than anybody else. In those drafts Washington had 14 players drafted, Oregon 13, Utah 12, Stanford 12, USC 11, UCLA seven, Arizona State five, Colorado five, Oregon State five, Cal four, Washington State three, and Arizona three.

It's quite clear that Stanford players have been bolting at the first chance they can. The transfer portal is part of that, though you're right there are reasons for it outside our control. But it's just one symptom of a larger culture of leaving. The NFL departures of guys like Mills, Sarell, Dalman, Parkinson, and Fehoko is what makes most clear Stanford players no longer have loyalty or sense of team. Those aren't departures other programs see. A healthy program might have lost two of those guys.