[Goose]

Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.

I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.

BC

True. Most guys don't make it. However, if you are not good enough to make it to a second contract in the NFL spending an extra year trying to improve your draft status is unlikely to produce that result. However, it does delay you finding out the NFL isn't for you. Equally unfortunately it is unclear exactly what one has to do to improve their draft status by how much. You could have a great year and go up not at all. You could also get hurt and end your career. If that is going to happen you want the NFL insurance, not the college insurance. All in all, I think it is clear going as early as you can is the best choice for most players. If you have first round potential, maybe coming back makes sense because your first contract would be greatly enhanced. Otherwise, considering the risk of injury, it doesn't make sense.

[Goose]

Not sure about that strategy. The vast majority of players, especially those drafted in the lower rounds, never see that second contract.

I haven’t games it out, but if you adjust for that fact, there is probably a strong impetus in improving your draft position upon exit from college.

BC

True. Most guys don't make it. However, if you are not good enough to make it to a second contract in the NFL spending an extra year trying to improve your draft status is unlikely to produce that result. However, it does delay you finding out the NFL isn't for you. Equally unfortunately it is unclear exactly what one has to do to improve their draft status by how much. You could have a great year and go up not at all. You could also get hurt and end your career. If that is going to happen you want the NFL insurance, not the college insurance. All in all, I think it is clear going as early as you can is the best choice for most players. If you have first round potential, maybe coming back makes sense because your first contract would be greatly enhanced. Otherwise, considering the risk of injury, it doesn't make sense.