[TonyLima]

Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.
 

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.

Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Looks like Carmel and Pebble Beach might get flooded out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/fl...r-AA16foVT

The morning news showed images of Hollister completely flooded. . . .

Reminder that these numbers are ratios. Value depends on the numerator and the denominator. If you wantvthe raw totals, download the Excel workbook linked in my article.

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Re the highlighted statement above, don’t bet on that. If the rest of the season is dry and sunny, sublimation will occur. That means no runoff.

The studies I have been looking over estimate sublimation at around 15% of snowpack, at most.  The southern Sierra is already at 123% of April 1 normal, so I think we are on track for at least a normal year in much of the Sierra.  However, I'd like to see the whole Sierra get well above normal before rejoicing.  And we really need to do a lot better than normal to make a dent in the drought.  We need more snow in February and March.

A bigger worry, perhaps, is that a too-early melt could occur, as with a rain-on-snow event, which would release the water in the snowpack too early before it could be stored or used.  Many reservoirs can't be filled early since they need to reserve space to prevent potential flooding, so ideally we need the snowpack to stay cold and in place until flood danger is over and irrigation season needs it. 

Warmer winter and spring storms could produce this kind of disaster, and they are probably more likely in this era of changed climate.  It was a warm rain event that produced the flooding of 96-97, when rain fell up to 10,000 feet in the Sierra on New Year's Day.

Good points. But 15% ain’t chicken feed.

[TonyLima]

Just in time. My look at the Bay Area rainfall situation . Here's a preview.
 

Interesting info, thanks for sharing. Curious at how it is collected for each location. Some incongruities seem to pop up, like Martinez is way above normal, while Benicia is at normal. Similarly Danville is slightly up, yet Walnut Creek and Dublin are both way up. . . .I'd imagine taken as a whole, the data averages out and shows that overall, we've had a ton of rain.

Large disparity between Gilroy and Hollister, two towns that are virtually adjacent.

Looks like Carmel and Pebble Beach might get flooded out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/fl...r-AA16foVT

The morning news showed images of Hollister completely flooded. . . .

Reminder that these numbers are ratios. Value depends on the numerator and the denominator. If you wantvthe raw totals, download the Excel workbook linked in my article.

---

Re the highlighted statement above, don’t bet on that. If the rest of the season is dry and sunny, sublimation will occur. That means no runoff.

The studies I have been looking over estimate sublimation at around 15% of snowpack, at most.  The southern Sierra is already at 123% of April 1 normal, so I think we are on track for at least a normal year in much of the Sierra.  However, I'd like to see the whole Sierra get well above normal before rejoicing.  And we really need to do a lot better than normal to make a dent in the drought.  We need more snow in February and March.

A bigger worry, perhaps, is that a too-early melt could occur, as with a rain-on-snow event, which would release the water in the snowpack too early before it could be stored or used.  Many reservoirs can't be filled early since they need to reserve space to prevent potential flooding, so ideally we need the snowpack to stay cold and in place until flood danger is over and irrigation season needs it. 

Warmer winter and spring storms could produce this kind of disaster, and they are probably more likely in this era of changed climate.  It was a warm rain event that produced the flooding of 96-97, when rain fell up to 10,000 feet in the Sierra on New Year's Day.

Good points. But 15% ain’t chicken feed.