09-12-2023, 10:56 AM
Good question on junior tournaments/slams versus D1 tennis. Fundamentally, D1 tennis is just a higher level, as junior events are all 18 and under, and D1 players are necessarily a bit older. Now, some of the names that pop up as elite junior players sometimes translate to the top of the collegiate rankings, sure, but it's also hit or miss. I think one of the highest-ranked players according to the ITF junior rankings that has come to Stanford in recent years is Ana Geller, and her collegiate career to date hasn't justified those rankings.
They're young, you know? And development isn't linear and some kids get to a higher level earlier and then plateau, whereas other kids continue to grow. (Ma was unquestionably ahead of Yepifanova when they arrived here and throughout their freshman year, but Yepifanova seemed to overtake her last year. I still think Ma is the better player, but there are mental aspects to the grind of a season that she needs to master.)
There's also a player choice element to it. Some players choose to play lower-grade professional tournaments (that's what Yu did this past summer, with little success, and what Blokhina mostly did her last year before college) for the opportunity to play against women rather than girls.
And for others, it's a stage of their careers that they move past. Blokhina won a couple matches there in 2021, I believe, but Yepifanova's run to the U.S. Open girls' finals was when she was 16, whereas Hui is an 18-year-old high school graduate.
Ultimately, it's rare for even highly-touted prospects to jump into an elite D1 team's lineup at the top. Michaela Gordon did it, but before her, it had been many years at Stanford. And yes, Connie Ma did it two years ago now (and with Yepifanova jumping in at 2, it was doubly shocking). Yu and Hui might be at the level that Ma/Yepifanova were two years ago, but that's two years of tough college matches, physical development, and mental growth that they haven't had the opportunity to get yet. They'll certainly leapfrog some players, but they're not gonna leapfrog those two. And with how Blake's game has come along, I don't think they'll get over her, either. (They might. Or one of them might. We'll see! Team tennis is a great meritocracy, and eventually better players will climb that ladder.)
My guess that Yu remains above Hui in the pecking order is really just that--a guess. It's informed by four years of being the unquestioned top recruit, but form matters a great deal in tennis, and Yu hasn't won much this summer while Hui has been on a tear.
Getting two recruits this good into the team can also have a galvanizing effect on players who'd previously felt secure in their lineup spots. How does Blokhina step up her game? How does Xu? The prospect of being out of the top six could have led those two to work very hard this summer. (Blokhina has been playing pro tournaments all summer, with mixed success, whereas I can't see any matches from Xu.) And what about Geller, Houghton, or Emma Sun? They've already been on the outside looking in, so does the prospect of falling further behind lead them to take a step? (Houghton played a couple of overseas ITF tournaments this summer and did OK, whereas I don't see matches from Geller or Sun. Note: the lack of tournament play doesn't mean they're not working, and perhaps they're focusing more on training, practice, and tweaking things in their games that way.)
Now, as far as how we stack up against the best teams in the country, I think we're right there. You have to put UNC as the clear favorite up top. But then I think there's a group of teams in the next tier down, and we're in that tier (along with Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, and Michigan). NC State beat us handily in last year's NCAAs, but they lose their top two players, so I think they take a step back. Texas loses its #1 as well, but they return everyone else and they add Old Dominion's #1, a top 20 preseason player in Tanya Sasnouskaya, so that's a great bit of reloading on the fly from them. Similarly, Georgia lost its #1 in Lea Ma and its #5, but the Bulldogs also have the #4 incoming recruiting class, plus the #1 and #6 newcomers. (Note: those rankings issued before Georgia signed Alexandra Vecic, an accomplished German who is the #1 newcomer. So, while Stanford formally has the #1 class, I'd put Georgia's class with Vecic ahead of ours, as good as ours is.) N.C. State also has a highly-ranked class coming in, but I tend to think it's more quantity than elite quality at the top, so I don't see an ace coming in.
We're a clearer favorite in the Pac-12 than I think we've been in a few years, too, though ASU and USC are dangerous and UCLA is always a threat. I think both UCLA and USC (which lost Maddy Sieg to the pro ranks) are good enough to beat us depending on the day, but just looking at the roster, we should win. And we get them at home this year, too, so that'll certainly help. (CU and Utah are the other home conference matches; we'll get Cal, UW/WSU, and UA/ASU on the road.)
As far as non-conference matches, I'd expect to see Pepperdine, and they're a contender every year. We were supposed to play them at home last year, but the match was cancelled, so we'll see if we get that home match again or if we're on the road. We've also been playing Texas annually in recent years, so that should be another great early challenge. And provided we qualify (and we should--our Kickoff Weekend opponents of Colorado and the winner of Maryland-UNLV all finished last season ranked #52 or worse), we should get a good sense of where we are at Indoor Nationals in February.
They're young, you know? And development isn't linear and some kids get to a higher level earlier and then plateau, whereas other kids continue to grow. (Ma was unquestionably ahead of Yepifanova when they arrived here and throughout their freshman year, but Yepifanova seemed to overtake her last year. I still think Ma is the better player, but there are mental aspects to the grind of a season that she needs to master.)
There's also a player choice element to it. Some players choose to play lower-grade professional tournaments (that's what Yu did this past summer, with little success, and what Blokhina mostly did her last year before college) for the opportunity to play against women rather than girls.
And for others, it's a stage of their careers that they move past. Blokhina won a couple matches there in 2021, I believe, but Yepifanova's run to the U.S. Open girls' finals was when she was 16, whereas Hui is an 18-year-old high school graduate.
Ultimately, it's rare for even highly-touted prospects to jump into an elite D1 team's lineup at the top. Michaela Gordon did it, but before her, it had been many years at Stanford. And yes, Connie Ma did it two years ago now (and with Yepifanova jumping in at 2, it was doubly shocking). Yu and Hui might be at the level that Ma/Yepifanova were two years ago, but that's two years of tough college matches, physical development, and mental growth that they haven't had the opportunity to get yet. They'll certainly leapfrog some players, but they're not gonna leapfrog those two. And with how Blake's game has come along, I don't think they'll get over her, either. (They might. Or one of them might. We'll see! Team tennis is a great meritocracy, and eventually better players will climb that ladder.)
My guess that Yu remains above Hui in the pecking order is really just that--a guess. It's informed by four years of being the unquestioned top recruit, but form matters a great deal in tennis, and Yu hasn't won much this summer while Hui has been on a tear.
Getting two recruits this good into the team can also have a galvanizing effect on players who'd previously felt secure in their lineup spots. How does Blokhina step up her game? How does Xu? The prospect of being out of the top six could have led those two to work very hard this summer. (Blokhina has been playing pro tournaments all summer, with mixed success, whereas I can't see any matches from Xu.) And what about Geller, Houghton, or Emma Sun? They've already been on the outside looking in, so does the prospect of falling further behind lead them to take a step? (Houghton played a couple of overseas ITF tournaments this summer and did OK, whereas I don't see matches from Geller or Sun. Note: the lack of tournament play doesn't mean they're not working, and perhaps they're focusing more on training, practice, and tweaking things in their games that way.)
Now, as far as how we stack up against the best teams in the country, I think we're right there. You have to put UNC as the clear favorite up top. But then I think there's a group of teams in the next tier down, and we're in that tier (along with Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, and Michigan). NC State beat us handily in last year's NCAAs, but they lose their top two players, so I think they take a step back. Texas loses its #1 as well, but they return everyone else and they add Old Dominion's #1, a top 20 preseason player in Tanya Sasnouskaya, so that's a great bit of reloading on the fly from them. Similarly, Georgia lost its #1 in Lea Ma and its #5, but the Bulldogs also have the #4 incoming recruiting class, plus the #1 and #6 newcomers. (Note: those rankings issued before Georgia signed Alexandra Vecic, an accomplished German who is the #1 newcomer. So, while Stanford formally has the #1 class, I'd put Georgia's class with Vecic ahead of ours, as good as ours is.) N.C. State also has a highly-ranked class coming in, but I tend to think it's more quantity than elite quality at the top, so I don't see an ace coming in.
We're a clearer favorite in the Pac-12 than I think we've been in a few years, too, though ASU and USC are dangerous and UCLA is always a threat. I think both UCLA and USC (which lost Maddy Sieg to the pro ranks) are good enough to beat us depending on the day, but just looking at the roster, we should win. And we get them at home this year, too, so that'll certainly help. (CU and Utah are the other home conference matches; we'll get Cal, UW/WSU, and UA/ASU on the road.)
As far as non-conference matches, I'd expect to see Pepperdine, and they're a contender every year. We were supposed to play them at home last year, but the match was cancelled, so we'll see if we get that home match again or if we're on the road. We've also been playing Texas annually in recent years, so that should be another great early challenge. And provided we qualify (and we should--our Kickoff Weekend opponents of Colorado and the winner of Maryland-UNLV all finished last season ranked #52 or worse), we should get a good sense of where we are at Indoor Nationals in February.