[jacket3ree]

LA Times, quoting Daniel Swain (climate scientist from UCLA) is reporting a 40% to 60% chance of a wet winter, at least in Southern California:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story...California

Scott Handel of the NOAA essentially repeated those odds, saying it's equally likely between dry and wet winter, but given the EL Nino conditions, they believe a slightly wetter-than-normal chance for the LA area.

Jan Null, meteorologist with the Golden Gate Weather Services says that the weather model indicated by La Nina called for dry conditions, and of course we received 30+ atmospheric rivers last water year. She predicted a dry December, a normal January and a wet February and March -- qualifying the prediction with fact that there are many other factors that could impact the outcome. Of course.

FYI, Jan is a man. We work with him quite often.

Remember, this is nature and forecasts are just that, forecasts. That NYE22 storm we are still recovering from was predicted to produce just shy of an inch of rain along the San Mateo Bayfront. We saw about 5 inches over a 24-hour period, with about 90% of that occurring over the maximum 12 hours.

P.S. Everyone should read Cadillac Desert, and I also recommend Arax's The Dreamt Land: Chasing Water and Dust Across California. Gets right at the heart of what 81alum is saying.

[jacket3ree]

LA Times, quoting Daniel Swain (climate scientist from UCLA) is reporting a 40% to 60% chance of a wet winter, at least in Southern California:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story...California

Scott Handel of the NOAA essentially repeated those odds, saying it's equally likely between dry and wet winter, but given the EL Nino conditions, they believe a slightly wetter-than-normal chance for the LA area.

Jan Null, meteorologist with the Golden Gate Weather Services says that the weather model indicated by La Nina called for dry conditions, and of course we received 30+ atmospheric rivers last water year. She predicted a dry December, a normal January and a wet February and March -- qualifying the prediction with fact that there are many other factors that could impact the outcome. Of course.

FYI, Jan is a man. We work with him quite often.

Remember, this is nature and forecasts are just that, forecasts. That NYE22 storm we are still recovering from was predicted to produce just shy of an inch of rain along the San Mateo Bayfront. We saw about 5 inches over a 24-hour period, with about 90% of that occurring over the maximum 12 hours.

P.S. Everyone should read Cadillac Desert, and I also recommend Arax's The Dreamt Land: Chasing Water and Dust Across California. Gets right at the heart of what 81alum is saying.