1. That was simultaneously a disappointing game yet also one totally typical of our season. It was disappointing because it was a winnable game that we didn't win (or even come all that close due to the frequency of getting in our own way), ostensibly our biggest rivalry game of the year yet one where we didn't come out with much fire outside a few notable performances, and our last real chance at a home win. [We are the only team in FBS not to have a home win this season. In the last 1,485 days we have won three games at home (one against very lowly Colgate). Nobody gets to enjoy home football games less than Stanford fans.] It was typical because this is how we typically play. That was our median performance of the season, a performance befitting our quality as a team. [With Sagarin now updated, the final results of our games this season have been befitting the #77 (at Hawaii), #209 (at USC), #184 (Sacramento State), #35 (Arizona), #135 (Oregon), #49 (at Colorado), #193 (UCLA), #40 (Washington), #26 (at Washington State), #193 (at Oregon State), and #125 (Cal) teams in the nation.] We are who we thought we were. At the same time, I do think we're seeing enough to put this team ahead of the 1960, 1983, and 2006 teams, and that wasn't a guarantee given how bad the roster is. We're treading water while we wait for some life rafts.
2. We have been modestly competitive this season against middling teams and that was again the case yesterday. The game could have gone differently were it not for the jaw-dropping amount of penalties (100 yards!) or if a few close officiating calls on massive momentum swingers went the other way. Alas, the penalty-prone Stanford team is not an anomaly. We are an extremely undisciplined team, 115th in penalty yards per game. This is the second game this season with 100 penalty yards and the fifth time with 8+ penalties. Shaw had 100+ penalty yards four times in 12 years. We shouldn't be obsessed with avoiding penalties nor should we play timidly, but it's time to acknowledge that against Sacramento State, UCLA, Washington, and Cal, penalties played a big role in losing and/or letting the game get out of control. I really do think Stanford could have been in this game with even just an average number of penalties. I don't want to dwell on that, though, because Cal was the better team and our performance was typical for us in many respects.
3. The best thing about this game for us (aside from our All-American of course) was some defensive fight. Cal's 2.45 points per non-garbage drive made the #52 offense in the country look like the #43 offense. Cal is the seventh best offense we've played in 11 games and, predictably, we did better against them than we have typically done this season. We also did slightly better on a yards per play basis than most teams do against Cal's offense, the fifth best defensive performance against them and below their average yards per play on the year (and well below our average allowed, but again that also has to do with Cal being a mediocre offense by our schedule's standards). This was our best defensive performance since the Washington game.
4. There was much less to like on offense. Our 1.36 points per non-garbage drive made the #124 defense in the country look like the #9 defense. Cal is fighting it out with Colorado and USC for the worst scoring defense on our schedule so being held to 15 points is profoundly pathetic and when you consider that nine of them were impressive kicks by our All-American that is really a horrendous offensive game. We have played six defenses better than Cal on a yards per play basis on the season yet only three defenses have stifled us worse than this in terms of yards per play. Bad offensive game.
5. The biggest unit-wide bright spot was one we've seen several times this season, run defense, which had been trending upward before getting mauled by Oregon State and yesterday bounced back very nicely. Most observers will miss this given Ott's extremely workmanlike game (36 carries) but we kept him over a yard per carry below his average, Cal as a team 1.31 yards below their average, and were more stifling on a yard per carry basis than anybody they've played other than Auburn and Utah. Very good run defense performance when taking the opponent into account. We aren't good enough to play with bullies like Oregon State, but against good but not great run games we can hold our own. That is not true for pass defense. This was one of Cal's most successful passing games of the season (second best passer rating, tied for second best yards per attempt, third most yards). We already knew we were one of the worst pass defenses in the nation and I think yesterday said as much about Cal as it did about us. Cal's two best passer ratings have been the last two weeks and I think the real story is they have found their QB (more so than we have). Mendoza is #65 in the nation in Total QBR and #61 in PFF while Daniels is #86 and #102 in those metrics.
6. Speaking of those metrics, for the second straight week there is fundamental difference between the two on whether Daniels played well. Interestingly, against Oregon State Total QBR liked Daniels and PFF nuked him while against Cal it was the reverse. Total QBR had his performance #120 or 131 QBs nationally this week while PFF thought it was the best game of his career. I don't know what to make of this other than to try to look holistically at the various measures, which continues to give us a picture of a below average QB who isn't horrible. I don't think that is enough to hold off a QB competition next year. Indeed, anybody who wanted Daniels to seize the starting role and demonstrate improvement over the course of the season has to be disappointed with his November. This was our third straight game with a passer rating among the worst in the nation. That's even more sobering considering Cal has an awful pass defense (#110 in passer rating allowed, #102 in yards per attempt allowed) and we let them hold us under our passing norms in every respect. We had the dead last lowest yards per attempt anybody has had against them and barely edged out Idaho in passer rating. I assume this can at least partly be explained by Daniels playing less than 100 percent health-wise, but this was really bad.
7. Our run game continues to be focused around QB runs. It's interesting that in a game Lamson barely played we had our highest yards per carry in the last eight games, despite Cal being an average run defense (better than Washington, Washington State, and Colorado). I am torn on whether this is an indictment of Lamson's importance (clearly he gives an important dimension on high leverage short yardage runs but it's interesting we had some relative success on the ground without having to switch up QBs) or the fact that the offense particularly stunk means we missed Lamson out there. It was a jarring pendulum shift in game planning/QB usage that a week ago we played a third of our plays with both of them in the game together and then yesterday we barely played Lamson. As much as anything this may speak to Taylor tinkering and adjusting game plans to try to squeeze blood out of this turnip. I respect the effort to see what sticks but proof is in the pudding and three weeks in a row the pudding hasn't lifted. Looking back at our season it is becoming clearer that the second half of the season has been really ugly offensively outside of Ayomanor's brilliance. I'm starting to get somewhat concerned by the theory of the case for the offense improving.
2. We have been modestly competitive this season against middling teams and that was again the case yesterday. The game could have gone differently were it not for the jaw-dropping amount of penalties (100 yards!) or if a few close officiating calls on massive momentum swingers went the other way. Alas, the penalty-prone Stanford team is not an anomaly. We are an extremely undisciplined team, 115th in penalty yards per game. This is the second game this season with 100 penalty yards and the fifth time with 8+ penalties. Shaw had 100+ penalty yards four times in 12 years. We shouldn't be obsessed with avoiding penalties nor should we play timidly, but it's time to acknowledge that against Sacramento State, UCLA, Washington, and Cal, penalties played a big role in losing and/or letting the game get out of control. I really do think Stanford could have been in this game with even just an average number of penalties. I don't want to dwell on that, though, because Cal was the better team and our performance was typical for us in many respects.
3. The best thing about this game for us (aside from our All-American of course) was some defensive fight. Cal's 2.45 points per non-garbage drive made the #52 offense in the country look like the #43 offense. Cal is the seventh best offense we've played in 11 games and, predictably, we did better against them than we have typically done this season. We also did slightly better on a yards per play basis than most teams do against Cal's offense, the fifth best defensive performance against them and below their average yards per play on the year (and well below our average allowed, but again that also has to do with Cal being a mediocre offense by our schedule's standards). This was our best defensive performance since the Washington game.
4. There was much less to like on offense. Our 1.36 points per non-garbage drive made the #124 defense in the country look like the #9 defense. Cal is fighting it out with Colorado and USC for the worst scoring defense on our schedule so being held to 15 points is profoundly pathetic and when you consider that nine of them were impressive kicks by our All-American that is really a horrendous offensive game. We have played six defenses better than Cal on a yards per play basis on the season yet only three defenses have stifled us worse than this in terms of yards per play. Bad offensive game.
5. The biggest unit-wide bright spot was one we've seen several times this season, run defense, which had been trending upward before getting mauled by Oregon State and yesterday bounced back very nicely. Most observers will miss this given Ott's extremely workmanlike game (36 carries) but we kept him over a yard per carry below his average, Cal as a team 1.31 yards below their average, and were more stifling on a yard per carry basis than anybody they've played other than Auburn and Utah. Very good run defense performance when taking the opponent into account. We aren't good enough to play with bullies like Oregon State, but against good but not great run games we can hold our own. That is not true for pass defense. This was one of Cal's most successful passing games of the season (second best passer rating, tied for second best yards per attempt, third most yards). We already knew we were one of the worst pass defenses in the nation and I think yesterday said as much about Cal as it did about us. Cal's two best passer ratings have been the last two weeks and I think the real story is they have found their QB (more so than we have). Mendoza is #65 in the nation in Total QBR and #61 in PFF while Daniels is #86 and #102 in those metrics.
6. Speaking of those metrics, for the second straight week there is fundamental difference between the two on whether Daniels played well. Interestingly, against Oregon State Total QBR liked Daniels and PFF nuked him while against Cal it was the reverse. Total QBR had his performance #120 or 131 QBs nationally this week while PFF thought it was the best game of his career. I don't know what to make of this other than to try to look holistically at the various measures, which continues to give us a picture of a below average QB who isn't horrible. I don't think that is enough to hold off a QB competition next year. Indeed, anybody who wanted Daniels to seize the starting role and demonstrate improvement over the course of the season has to be disappointed with his November. This was our third straight game with a passer rating among the worst in the nation. That's even more sobering considering Cal has an awful pass defense (#110 in passer rating allowed, #102 in yards per attempt allowed) and we let them hold us under our passing norms in every respect. We had the dead last lowest yards per attempt anybody has had against them and barely edged out Idaho in passer rating. I assume this can at least partly be explained by Daniels playing less than 100 percent health-wise, but this was really bad.
7. Our run game continues to be focused around QB runs. It's interesting that in a game Lamson barely played we had our highest yards per carry in the last eight games, despite Cal being an average run defense (better than Washington, Washington State, and Colorado). I am torn on whether this is an indictment of Lamson's importance (clearly he gives an important dimension on high leverage short yardage runs but it's interesting we had some relative success on the ground without having to switch up QBs) or the fact that the offense particularly stunk means we missed Lamson out there. It was a jarring pendulum shift in game planning/QB usage that a week ago we played a third of our plays with both of them in the game together and then yesterday we barely played Lamson. As much as anything this may speak to Taylor tinkering and adjusting game plans to try to squeeze blood out of this turnip. I respect the effort to see what sticks but proof is in the pudding and three weeks in a row the pudding hasn't lifted. Looking back at our season it is becoming clearer that the second half of the season has been really ugly offensively outside of Ayomanor's brilliance. I'm starting to get somewhat concerned by the theory of the case for the offense improving.