01-26-2024, 10:37 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2024, 11:00 AM by ColoradoTree.)
ITA Kick-Off Weekend starts today! We play Colorado at 2pm after Maryland and UNLV play at 11am, and assuming a pit hasn't opened and swallowed Taube whole, we'll play the Maryland/UNLV winner tomorrow at 2pm.
First up, the Buffs (1-0, 0-0 Pac-12). They were pretty middling last year, finishing 13-13 with a 2-8 conference record. But in that are some glimmers of hope for how they could potentially pull something off. CU's #4 (Ana El Sayed) beat Blokhina last year to keep Stanford's final score to 6-1, but that comes with a big grain of salt, as Blokhina retired due to injury. They lost just 4-3 to Cal after getting singles wins on Courts 1 (Balzert over Giavara), 4 (El Sayed over Viller Moeller), and 6 (Hayes over Brown), while they were on the wrong side of a 7-5 third-set scoreline on Court 3 that would've swung it the other way. They beat WSU 5-2 despite losing doubles, getting wins on 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6. And they upset a ranked UW team 4-3 behind three-set wins from Balzert on 1, Stanojevic on 3, El Sayed on 4, and Tokac on 5. But Balzert is gone now.
They are 1-0 after a 7-0 thrashing of UC Riverside that saw El Sayed at the top of the lineup, but, um, UC Riverside is woeful (they were 2-16 last year, and their two wins came against, I kid you not, "Westmont" and "Hope International," which the Internet tells me are technically real schools but you can't believe everything you read).
(I may live in Colorado, but I'm no Buffs fan--I used to be mildly pleased when they'd do well in a particular sport because it made people I like happy, but after they destroyed the hope of the rest of the then-Pac-10 staying together, I'm happy to root against them like the villains they are. Not entirely fair to the women's tennis program, I recognize, but who says sports fandom is rational?)
Anyway, the Buffs are not a credible threat here, absent something catastrophic happening, so hopefully it's a nice tune-up that doesn't tax our players too much.
Looking ahead to Maryland and UNLV, both teams should present more of a challenge. Maryland went 17-9 last year, 5-6 in the Big Ten, but were ranked #52 at the end of the season and weren't really that close to the bubble of making the tournament, but that margins at that point are fine and a couple matches going the other way could've turned it for them. UNLV was 19-4 and 8-2 in the Mountain West on the road to winning that championship and punching a ticket to NCAAs, but they ran into then-#24 USC in the first round, who won 4-0 behind doubles and three lopsided singles matches at Courts 1 (Sieg over Helgesson), 2 (Cayetano over Kovacs), and 4 (Cheong over Hu), while Snow Han was a game away from clinching herself on Court 3 over Salsa Aher. To UNLV's credit, they were about to force third sets on 5 (Coco Zhao) and 6 (Aura Fang). Maryland is 2-0 on the year with victories over Georgetown and GW, while this will be UNLV's first match of the year.
How to watch: https://gostanford.com/sports/2022/3/17/...ideo-stats
Sometimes Kick-Off Weekend brings greater challenges, but at last spring's draft (https://slam.tennis/ita/draft/2024/ncaaw), you can see that teams tried hard to avoid coming here. We were the last team to catch a #2 seed and the last to catch a #3 seed, suggesting teams didn't want to come out west for nothing. (As a reminder, for the Kick-Off Weekend draft, the fifteen host teams are selected by season-ending ranking order, and then one by one, the teams next up in the rankings get to pick where they go. So, you can see that the tennis world felt like they stood a better chance of picking off #8 Iowa State, #10 Ohio State, and #14 Tennessee than against teams like us, UNC, Georgia, and A&M. Lots of factors at play for where teams decide to go, and certainly travel is one of them (e.g., after the potentially winnable regions were all booked up, #40 Charlotte probably sighed and figured staying close to home in Chapel Hill was a better overall decision than heading across the country).
As a reminder, by winning two matches at Kick-Off Weekend, teams book a spot at the National Team Indoor Championship, or Indoor Nationals, which this year is hosted by UW on February 9-12, so the Huskies are automatically in the field while the other fifteen teams have to win their way there.
I usually like to look at Pac-12 prospects this weekend for two reasons--(1) a rising tide lifts all boats, as I want the Pac-12 teams to do well against national competition so our wins over--or losses to--them make us look better; and (2) a vague sense of conference pride. With the latter reason falling by the wayside, I suppose we're left with the former.
* Oregon is the 4th seed at UNC. They'll get absolutely smoked, and they'll probably be the underdog against the Charlotte-Kentucky loser.
* Arizona is the 3rd seed at the UGA region, playing South Carolina in the first round. Arizona has a shot at an upset over South Carolina, but not over UGA.
* Utah is the 4th seed at Michigan. They'll lose handily.
* UCLA is the 2nd seed at Ames, IA, with a first round match against Oklahoma State (who was ranked #19 at the end of last year but is ranked #3 right now after beating the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan and Ohio State to start the year). They could absolutely win, and if so, they'd be favored over Iowa State in the final, but the Pokes are a tough, tough test.
* ASU is the 3rd seed in Columbus, OH, playing Kansas first. Toss-up of a match, and they'd have a decent chance at an upset in the next match if they can pull it off.
* Cal is the 2nd seed at Oklahoma, playing Illinois first. A good test and should be an even match, but unclear if Cal has the horsepower to beat Oklahoma and book a spot at Indoor Nationals.
* USC is the 3rd seed in Knoxville and will have a tough time against #21 Miami to start things off, and #17 Tennessee will presumably be waiting in the wings, but USC probably has the best path to Indoor Nationals for a Pac-12 team other than Stanford and hosts UW.
First up, the Buffs (1-0, 0-0 Pac-12). They were pretty middling last year, finishing 13-13 with a 2-8 conference record. But in that are some glimmers of hope for how they could potentially pull something off. CU's #4 (Ana El Sayed) beat Blokhina last year to keep Stanford's final score to 6-1, but that comes with a big grain of salt, as Blokhina retired due to injury. They lost just 4-3 to Cal after getting singles wins on Courts 1 (Balzert over Giavara), 4 (El Sayed over Viller Moeller), and 6 (Hayes over Brown), while they were on the wrong side of a 7-5 third-set scoreline on Court 3 that would've swung it the other way. They beat WSU 5-2 despite losing doubles, getting wins on 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6. And they upset a ranked UW team 4-3 behind three-set wins from Balzert on 1, Stanojevic on 3, El Sayed on 4, and Tokac on 5. But Balzert is gone now.
They are 1-0 after a 7-0 thrashing of UC Riverside that saw El Sayed at the top of the lineup, but, um, UC Riverside is woeful (they were 2-16 last year, and their two wins came against, I kid you not, "Westmont" and "Hope International," which the Internet tells me are technically real schools but you can't believe everything you read).
(I may live in Colorado, but I'm no Buffs fan--I used to be mildly pleased when they'd do well in a particular sport because it made people I like happy, but after they destroyed the hope of the rest of the then-Pac-10 staying together, I'm happy to root against them like the villains they are. Not entirely fair to the women's tennis program, I recognize, but who says sports fandom is rational?)
Anyway, the Buffs are not a credible threat here, absent something catastrophic happening, so hopefully it's a nice tune-up that doesn't tax our players too much.
Looking ahead to Maryland and UNLV, both teams should present more of a challenge. Maryland went 17-9 last year, 5-6 in the Big Ten, but were ranked #52 at the end of the season and weren't really that close to the bubble of making the tournament, but that margins at that point are fine and a couple matches going the other way could've turned it for them. UNLV was 19-4 and 8-2 in the Mountain West on the road to winning that championship and punching a ticket to NCAAs, but they ran into then-#24 USC in the first round, who won 4-0 behind doubles and three lopsided singles matches at Courts 1 (Sieg over Helgesson), 2 (Cayetano over Kovacs), and 4 (Cheong over Hu), while Snow Han was a game away from clinching herself on Court 3 over Salsa Aher. To UNLV's credit, they were about to force third sets on 5 (Coco Zhao) and 6 (Aura Fang). Maryland is 2-0 on the year with victories over Georgetown and GW, while this will be UNLV's first match of the year.
How to watch: https://gostanford.com/sports/2022/3/17/...ideo-stats
Sometimes Kick-Off Weekend brings greater challenges, but at last spring's draft (https://slam.tennis/ita/draft/2024/ncaaw), you can see that teams tried hard to avoid coming here. We were the last team to catch a #2 seed and the last to catch a #3 seed, suggesting teams didn't want to come out west for nothing. (As a reminder, for the Kick-Off Weekend draft, the fifteen host teams are selected by season-ending ranking order, and then one by one, the teams next up in the rankings get to pick where they go. So, you can see that the tennis world felt like they stood a better chance of picking off #8 Iowa State, #10 Ohio State, and #14 Tennessee than against teams like us, UNC, Georgia, and A&M. Lots of factors at play for where teams decide to go, and certainly travel is one of them (e.g., after the potentially winnable regions were all booked up, #40 Charlotte probably sighed and figured staying close to home in Chapel Hill was a better overall decision than heading across the country).
As a reminder, by winning two matches at Kick-Off Weekend, teams book a spot at the National Team Indoor Championship, or Indoor Nationals, which this year is hosted by UW on February 9-12, so the Huskies are automatically in the field while the other fifteen teams have to win their way there.
I usually like to look at Pac-12 prospects this weekend for two reasons--(1) a rising tide lifts all boats, as I want the Pac-12 teams to do well against national competition so our wins over--or losses to--them make us look better; and (2) a vague sense of conference pride. With the latter reason falling by the wayside, I suppose we're left with the former.
* Oregon is the 4th seed at UNC. They'll get absolutely smoked, and they'll probably be the underdog against the Charlotte-Kentucky loser.
* Arizona is the 3rd seed at the UGA region, playing South Carolina in the first round. Arizona has a shot at an upset over South Carolina, but not over UGA.
* Utah is the 4th seed at Michigan. They'll lose handily.
* UCLA is the 2nd seed at Ames, IA, with a first round match against Oklahoma State (who was ranked #19 at the end of last year but is ranked #3 right now after beating the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan and Ohio State to start the year). They could absolutely win, and if so, they'd be favored over Iowa State in the final, but the Pokes are a tough, tough test.
* ASU is the 3rd seed in Columbus, OH, playing Kansas first. Toss-up of a match, and they'd have a decent chance at an upset in the next match if they can pull it off.
* Cal is the 2nd seed at Oklahoma, playing Illinois first. A good test and should be an even match, but unclear if Cal has the horsepower to beat Oklahoma and book a spot at Indoor Nationals.
* USC is the 3rd seed in Knoxville and will have a tough time against #21 Miami to start things off, and #17 Tennessee will presumably be waiting in the wings, but USC probably has the best path to Indoor Nationals for a Pac-12 team other than Stanford and hosts UW.