01-29-2024, 10:35 AM
Looking ahead to National Indoors, the top 8 teams by ITA ranking are the seeded teams, while the remaining 8 teams are unseeded and are drawn randomly against the seeded teams, though I believe they take steps to ensure that there are not intra-conference matchups in the first round. So, with the understanding that this could shift somewhat, the seeded teams should look like this:
(1) UNC
(2) Stanford
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Georgia
(5) Michigan
(6) Pepperdine
(7) N.C. State
(8) Florida
That leaves an "unseeded" pool of #9 A&M, #10 Texas, #11 UVA, #13 Ohio State, #14 Auburn, #18 USC, and #19 Cal, plus host #22 Washington. We won't play USC, Cal, or UW for sure in the first round, and I think--but I'm not sure--that they try and avoid other regular-season rematches in the first round, too, so that might mean we don't face Texas or A&M in that first match. That leaves the likeliest opponents for the first match as UVA, Ohio State, or Auburn--all excellent teams, but also teams where we should have a slight edge. If chalk holds, it would be a rematch in last year's NCAA semifinal in the second round with now-#7 N.C. State (who is 5-0 but who hasn't really been tested yet), and then a semifinal against #3 Oklahoma State, with #1 UNC looming. Sometimes you get some wonky results at Kick-Off Weekend, and there are some teams that are lucky to be there and don't really belong. But this field is all wheat, no chaff (with the possible exception of #22 UW, who hasn't played anyone yet, and who struggled to beat a Memphis team that didn't finish last year ranked in the top 75). So, it's a great opportunity to get a sense of where we stand with the rest of the nation's best at this early point in the season.
I have no idea what will happen, but we can expectation-set a little. An appearance in the final confirms what we currently think--we're absolutely in the mix for a national title, even if UNC is the favorite. And frankly, losing in a competitive semifinal to the #3 team doesn't really change that calculus for me. But losing earlier than that suggests we've still got some work to do, and probably on the mental toughness/finishing matches front. I think we're the 2nd-best team in the country, but I don't know that we are. And if we have a relatively disappointing showing at National Indoors, it doesn't mean that the season is lost, for a few reasons:
(1) Recall that we are an outdoor team, while other teams primarily play indoors or play in relatively equal amounts at their indoor and outdoor facilities, so we're not entirely in our element here. (2) We tend to do worse at this particular tournament than we do at NCAAs, in part due to it being indoors, and in part to the fact that we seem to improve over the course of the season more than other teams do. We often have work to do at this point in the season. (3) We last won this tournament in 2011, and we have won four NCAA titles since that time. (4) Our National Indoors win in 2011 didn't mean we were the best, as we didn't follow it up with a NCAA title. That said, the three previous times we won this tournament, we followed it up with the NCAA team title (our ridiculous run in '04, '05, and '06).
(1) UNC
(2) Stanford
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Georgia
(5) Michigan
(6) Pepperdine
(7) N.C. State
(8) Florida
That leaves an "unseeded" pool of #9 A&M, #10 Texas, #11 UVA, #13 Ohio State, #14 Auburn, #18 USC, and #19 Cal, plus host #22 Washington. We won't play USC, Cal, or UW for sure in the first round, and I think--but I'm not sure--that they try and avoid other regular-season rematches in the first round, too, so that might mean we don't face Texas or A&M in that first match. That leaves the likeliest opponents for the first match as UVA, Ohio State, or Auburn--all excellent teams, but also teams where we should have a slight edge. If chalk holds, it would be a rematch in last year's NCAA semifinal in the second round with now-#7 N.C. State (who is 5-0 but who hasn't really been tested yet), and then a semifinal against #3 Oklahoma State, with #1 UNC looming. Sometimes you get some wonky results at Kick-Off Weekend, and there are some teams that are lucky to be there and don't really belong. But this field is all wheat, no chaff (with the possible exception of #22 UW, who hasn't played anyone yet, and who struggled to beat a Memphis team that didn't finish last year ranked in the top 75). So, it's a great opportunity to get a sense of where we stand with the rest of the nation's best at this early point in the season.
I have no idea what will happen, but we can expectation-set a little. An appearance in the final confirms what we currently think--we're absolutely in the mix for a national title, even if UNC is the favorite. And frankly, losing in a competitive semifinal to the #3 team doesn't really change that calculus for me. But losing earlier than that suggests we've still got some work to do, and probably on the mental toughness/finishing matches front. I think we're the 2nd-best team in the country, but I don't know that we are. And if we have a relatively disappointing showing at National Indoors, it doesn't mean that the season is lost, for a few reasons:
(1) Recall that we are an outdoor team, while other teams primarily play indoors or play in relatively equal amounts at their indoor and outdoor facilities, so we're not entirely in our element here. (2) We tend to do worse at this particular tournament than we do at NCAAs, in part due to it being indoors, and in part to the fact that we seem to improve over the course of the season more than other teams do. We often have work to do at this point in the season. (3) We last won this tournament in 2011, and we have won four NCAA titles since that time. (4) Our National Indoors win in 2011 didn't mean we were the best, as we didn't follow it up with a NCAA title. That said, the three previous times we won this tournament, we followed it up with the NCAA team title (our ridiculous run in '04, '05, and '06).