[ColoradoTree]

Well, that sure did not go to expectations! 

I absolutely love that response to how last Sunday vs. UCLA went. That Pepperdine team has the depth and talent to go toe to toe with anyone in the country, and I expect the Waves to make a deep NCAA run. And we handled them. I thought this was going to be a bruising fight, and instead, we end up with individual match scorelines that look like what I'd expect against a team ranked in the 40s, not one ranked #3. We got punched in the mouth, and we came back with a vengeance. That's the kind of mentality you want to see as we get closer to May. 

Some takeaways:

* First, the lineup. Ma got moved down, while Yepifanova got moved up. While you're all likely familiar with my view at this point that Ma is generally the better player, you have to take form into account, and this swap is a perfectly reasonable response to recent form. But any time you make a move like this, you wonder how the players will react. And both delivered. 
* Broadus is a top-10 player currently (not sure I agree with that as a general matter, but she's ranked there for the moment), and Yepifanova controlled her. Outstanding.
* Tjen has been ranked as high as #1 in the country in her history (if you recall, she burst onto the scene as a freshman at Oregon, but that was the only season she spent there). She can reach that gear, and she got closer to it in the second set against Ma, but Ma was equal to the challenge. 
* Every time Eleana Yu has slid into the lineup this year, she has delivered, and I love everything I've seen from her. She had no trouble chalking up a win. 
* As for the unfinished matches, they tell different stories. Hui was the only one on the verge of losing, but she was still very much in that second set and perhaps could've turned it around if necessary. Xu lost her first set going away, but she was about to win her second and force a third, so you like the momentum shift there. She could've folded, but that's good fight. And Blake won her first against another top-10 opponent in Zaar, lost the second, but was right there again to start the third. You can't say how it would've gone, but to be honest, anytime we play another top team, I pencil in Blake for a loss. Not that she hasn't delivered there on occasion, but I don't see her as usually on the same level as the other #1s on those teams. So anytime she's right there in a third set against a top player, that's a win as against expectations at least. 
* We got the doubles point against a really good doubles team, and Ma/Yepifanova were this close to giving Broadus/Tjen their very first loss of the season. 
* Hey, India Houghton! Jumped into doubles on the #2 line with Blake after Blokhina was a late scratch, and she helped deliver the doubles point with a 7-5 win. Some seniors don't respond well to being out of the lineup consistently, but that effort and result tell you all you need to know about Houghton's attitude. Love it. 
* That result means we now have 7 Top 25 wins: #3 Pepperdine; #8 Texas; #9 USC; #11 Texas A&M; #12 Ohio State; #13 Florida; and #21 San Diego (away). And because the win over USD was on the road, the 10% bonus means it's roughly equal to beating the #15 team at home or at a neutral site. While we now have to take the hit of a loss to UCLA in addition to the loss to Oklahoma State, that win over us also boosts UCLA's rankings, and now they're ranked #14, meaning the loss is also less painful going forward. 
* In terms of what's in front of us, we have just four regular season matches left: vs. #59 Oregon on Sunday; at unranked Wazzu next Friday; at #25 Washington Sunday the 14th; and at #10 Cal on April 19. (A road win over #25 is like a home win over #19/#20, and a road win over #10 is like a home win over #7.)
* So, that's two matches remaining that would deliver a lot of rankings value, and if we win both, we'd be at 9 top 25ish wins going into the Pac-12 tournament, where we'd be likely to play another match or two against the likes of Cal, USC, and UCLA. So we could still climb as high as #3 before NCAAs, which would be a nice place to be. (Right now, Oklahoma State is miles ahead of everyone, with a rankings average of 88.81; Michigan is second with 77.66; and then you've got four teams within decent reach of one another--Pepperdine at 67.42; UVA at 66.32; Stanford at 65.32; and UNC at 63.52. This win should be enough to vault us ahead of UVA and Pepperdine for now, but the question is whether we'll stay there over the next couple of weeks. UNC should climb as well, having just beaten UVA.)
* Looking at what's left for the teams around us in the rankings; #2 Michigan plays basically nobody and then will probably end up playing Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament final, since those are the only two teams of reasonable quality in the Big Ten this year--so it could be tough to stay at #2, but they already have nine very good wins, so they probably will; Pepperdine plays at Cal today, has UCLA next week, and has USD the week after, so they could get a few more quality wins, and maybe USD again in the WCC tournament--as it stands, Pepperdine has 7 top 25 wins; UVA is at #20 Duke tomorrow and gets #19 Miami and #28 FSU next week before the ACC tournament, so they've got chances as well--the ACC is such a deep conference; and UNC's win over UVA was their last opportunity for a quality win before the ACC tournament, as they get the basement of the conference over the next three matches.

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Looking across the bay right now, Pepperdine won the doubles point over Cal, but it was very, very close. They currently lead 1-0, but Cal got the first sets in the four matches they'd need to win:

1. Viller Moeller (Cal) leads Zaar 6-0, 3-1
2. Tjen leads Alsola (Cal) 6-1, 3-2
3. Wiersholm (Cal) leads Broadus 6-2, 1-1
4. Mushika (Cal) leads Campana 6-2, 0-2
5. Redelijk leads Folch (Cal) 6-3, 1-0
6. Mi (Cal) leads Yang 6-3, 3-2

We can afford to be somewhat agnostic about how this one turns out, since both are on our schedule and both are pretty highly-ranked, but it's interesting to note that Pepperdine has already beaten Cal twice this season--the first time at Indoor Nationals, 4-2, and the second time a couple weeks ago in Malibu by a 6-1 score. If the Waves want to make it 3 for 3, they'll need to win a three-setter or two.

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Viller Moeller crushed Zaar, 6-0, 6-1, and Lan Mi rolled over Vivian Yang 3&3, so it's 2-1 Cal. Redelijk is a game away from Pepperdine's second point, Tjen is a game away from what would be the third point, and Broadus has turned her match around and is up a double break in the second, while Mushika is a game away from beating Campana on 4. This one looks destined to be 4-3 either way, depending on how the Broadus-Wiersholm match turns out.

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Tjen and Redelijk won to make it 3-2 Pepperdine. Campana fought back to force a tiebreaker on 4, which she won, and Broadus leads Wiersholm 3-2 in their third set.

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Wiersholm turned it around and beat Broadus 6-4 in the third, so it's down to Campana-Mushika, and that one is 4-4 in the third. On a knife's edge!

[ColoradoTree]

Well, that sure did not go to expectations! 

I absolutely love that response to how last Sunday vs. UCLA went. That Pepperdine team has the depth and talent to go toe to toe with anyone in the country, and I expect the Waves to make a deep NCAA run. And we handled them. I thought this was going to be a bruising fight, and instead, we end up with individual match scorelines that look like what I'd expect against a team ranked in the 40s, not one ranked #3. We got punched in the mouth, and we came back with a vengeance. That's the kind of mentality you want to see as we get closer to May. 

Some takeaways:

* First, the lineup. Ma got moved down, while Yepifanova got moved up. While you're all likely familiar with my view at this point that Ma is generally the better player, you have to take form into account, and this swap is a perfectly reasonable response to recent form. But any time you make a move like this, you wonder how the players will react. And both delivered. 
* Broadus is a top-10 player currently (not sure I agree with that as a general matter, but she's ranked there for the moment), and Yepifanova controlled her. Outstanding.
* Tjen has been ranked as high as #1 in the country in her history (if you recall, she burst onto the scene as a freshman at Oregon, but that was the only season she spent there). She can reach that gear, and she got closer to it in the second set against Ma, but Ma was equal to the challenge. 
* Every time Eleana Yu has slid into the lineup this year, she has delivered, and I love everything I've seen from her. She had no trouble chalking up a win. 
* As for the unfinished matches, they tell different stories. Hui was the only one on the verge of losing, but she was still very much in that second set and perhaps could've turned it around if necessary. Xu lost her first set going away, but she was about to win her second and force a third, so you like the momentum shift there. She could've folded, but that's good fight. And Blake won her first against another top-10 opponent in Zaar, lost the second, but was right there again to start the third. You can't say how it would've gone, but to be honest, anytime we play another top team, I pencil in Blake for a loss. Not that she hasn't delivered there on occasion, but I don't see her as usually on the same level as the other #1s on those teams. So anytime she's right there in a third set against a top player, that's a win as against expectations at least. 
* We got the doubles point against a really good doubles team, and Ma/Yepifanova were this close to giving Broadus/Tjen their very first loss of the season. 
* Hey, India Houghton! Jumped into doubles on the #2 line with Blake after Blokhina was a late scratch, and she helped deliver the doubles point with a 7-5 win. Some seniors don't respond well to being out of the lineup consistently, but that effort and result tell you all you need to know about Houghton's attitude. Love it. 
* That result means we now have 7 Top 25 wins: #3 Pepperdine; #8 Texas; #9 USC; #11 Texas A&M; #12 Ohio State; #13 Florida; and #21 San Diego (away). And because the win over USD was on the road, the 10% bonus means it's roughly equal to beating the #15 team at home or at a neutral site. While we now have to take the hit of a loss to UCLA in addition to the loss to Oklahoma State, that win over us also boosts UCLA's rankings, and now they're ranked #14, meaning the loss is also less painful going forward. 
* In terms of what's in front of us, we have just four regular season matches left: vs. #59 Oregon on Sunday; at unranked Wazzu next Friday; at #25 Washington Sunday the 14th; and at #10 Cal on April 19. (A road win over #25 is like a home win over #19/#20, and a road win over #10 is like a home win over #7.)
* So, that's two matches remaining that would deliver a lot of rankings value, and if we win both, we'd be at 9 top 25ish wins going into the Pac-12 tournament, where we'd be likely to play another match or two against the likes of Cal, USC, and UCLA. So we could still climb as high as #3 before NCAAs, which would be a nice place to be. (Right now, Oklahoma State is miles ahead of everyone, with a rankings average of 88.81; Michigan is second with 77.66; and then you've got four teams within decent reach of one another--Pepperdine at 67.42; UVA at 66.32; Stanford at 65.32; and UNC at 63.52. This win should be enough to vault us ahead of UVA and Pepperdine for now, but the question is whether we'll stay there over the next couple of weeks. UNC should climb as well, having just beaten UVA.)
* Looking at what's left for the teams around us in the rankings; #2 Michigan plays basically nobody and then will probably end up playing Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament final, since those are the only two teams of reasonable quality in the Big Ten this year--so it could be tough to stay at #2, but they already have nine very good wins, so they probably will; Pepperdine plays at Cal today, has UCLA next week, and has USD the week after, so they could get a few more quality wins, and maybe USD again in the WCC tournament--as it stands, Pepperdine has 7 top 25 wins; UVA is at #20 Duke tomorrow and gets #19 Miami and #28 FSU next week before the ACC tournament, so they've got chances as well--the ACC is such a deep conference; and UNC's win over UVA was their last opportunity for a quality win before the ACC tournament, as they get the basement of the conference over the next three matches.

---

Looking across the bay right now, Pepperdine won the doubles point over Cal, but it was very, very close. They currently lead 1-0, but Cal got the first sets in the four matches they'd need to win:

1. Viller Moeller (Cal) leads Zaar 6-0, 3-1
2. Tjen leads Alsola (Cal) 6-1, 3-2
3. Wiersholm (Cal) leads Broadus 6-2, 1-1
4. Mushika (Cal) leads Campana 6-2, 0-2
5. Redelijk leads Folch (Cal) 6-3, 1-0
6. Mi (Cal) leads Yang 6-3, 3-2

We can afford to be somewhat agnostic about how this one turns out, since both are on our schedule and both are pretty highly-ranked, but it's interesting to note that Pepperdine has already beaten Cal twice this season--the first time at Indoor Nationals, 4-2, and the second time a couple weeks ago in Malibu by a 6-1 score. If the Waves want to make it 3 for 3, they'll need to win a three-setter or two.

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Viller Moeller crushed Zaar, 6-0, 6-1, and Lan Mi rolled over Vivian Yang 3&3, so it's 2-1 Cal. Redelijk is a game away from Pepperdine's second point, Tjen is a game away from what would be the third point, and Broadus has turned her match around and is up a double break in the second, while Mushika is a game away from beating Campana on 4. This one looks destined to be 4-3 either way, depending on how the Broadus-Wiersholm match turns out.

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Tjen and Redelijk won to make it 3-2 Pepperdine. Campana fought back to force a tiebreaker on 4, which she won, and Broadus leads Wiersholm 3-2 in their third set.

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Wiersholm turned it around and beat Broadus 6-4 in the third, so it's down to Campana-Mushika, and that one is 4-4 in the third. On a knife's edge!