11-03-2024, 01:42 PM
5. It seems beside the point to dissect the particulars of a game like this but if I am trying to will into existence a Stanford football team worth taking seriously I guess it's once more into the breach. The most interesting thing about this game is how well the offense played in a game in which the final score was our most embarrassing of the season. We scored 2.33 points per non-garbage drive, making the #105 points per drive defense look like the #76 points per drive defense. Bad, but far from worst game of the season bad. And it looked even better than that from a yardage standpoint. Thanks in large part to Daniels' two massive touchdown runs but not only due to those plays, the offense moved the ball a fair bit against NC State, though it was too dependent on big plays rather than consistent moving of the chains. Believe it or not, yesterday was the most yards per play we've ever had under Taylor and aside from Colgate 2022 the most we've had since September 2021 against Vanderbilt. It's the most we've had against a (for now) top 100 yards per play defense since the first game of the pandemic in 2020. It was also a great yardage performance even relative to other Power Four teams, with Clemson the only offense to gain yards per play like that against the Wolfpack this year. The problem was that our offense only got to run 55 plays yesterday, the fewest in the Taylor era (only 24 in the first half!). Fundamentally, NC State's offense could do whatever they wanted against our defense and that was all she wrote. Taylor's side of the ball didn't have a chance given April's side allowing 6.5 points per non-garbage drive (!), making the #98 points per drive offense look like the greatest offense in college football history. This is the second time in four games in which we have let an opposing offense score at will to the point their production exceeded the best offenses in history. But at least Notre Dame has a very good offense. NC State's offense kind of sucks. This was the most yards per play we've given up this season despite NC State being the seventh best SP+ offense and eighth best FEI offense we've faced, which is to say the worst FBS offense we've faced. To let such a bad offense score a touchdown every time is a special kind of failure.
6. As we could all see, it was a comprehensive defensive failure. That was the highest passer rating we've allowed since September 2022 against USC. CJ Bailey is the #45 Total QBR guy in the country and was #1 this week. Just had his way. With Bailey being a true freshman thrust into action mid-season, a Pollyanna might cite the possibility he's the real deal as the explanation for this torching and I'd like to believe that, but this game was consistent with our endemic pass defense incompetence. To wit: we are now #131 in defensive passer rating. Fact is nobody in Power Four is as incapable of pass defense as we are. To date we've told ourselves a story of compensating somewhat for that with a competitive run defense. Alas, that went down in an inglorious blaze yesterday too. After consistently holding opponents under their average, we gave up three yards more per carry than NC State's average. This was the second worst we've been carved up by a run game in the April era and the most success NC State has had on the ground since the first game of the 2021 season. Complete disaster for our run defense. I noted earlier in the year that the April run defense showed some signs of life last year - doing better than the opponent's average seven times - but in the final analysis it was a bad run defense (#100 in yards per carry allowed). It is sobering to think that after all the signs of progress we perceived seeing this season in the run defense we now head into the final three games #79 in yards per carry allowed. This could be deja vu with last year in terms of run defense progress turning out to be fool's gold. The fact the breakdown happened at this stage of the season against a very bad run game (even after yesterday NC State is #86 in yards per carry) raises the alarm for me that we are seeing the breakdown of will and fight in our defense.
7. The offensive stats kind of shocked me when I dug into them this morning. This was easily our most efficient passing day (aside from Cal Poly) in the two year Taylor era AND the most yards per carry in a game in the Taylor era. Simply put, the Taylor offense has never gobbled up yards like it did yesterday. The passing game was not able to take more advantage of the efficiency because we only passed 16 times, the lowest in the last eight seasons. Part of this was the offense being hamstrung by what the defense allowed NC State to do in controlling the game but it also, like the Notre Dame game, may speak to a lack of trust in our passing. Still, the chunk plays to Ayomanor and Mosley may be something to build on. There were also things to build on in the run game. Daniels' enormous runs to paydirt had a lot to do with the rushing stats being so good but it was a very good rushing performance independent of that with Tabb's extremely encouraging debut (72 yards on 6.2 yards per carry) as well. NC State has a bad run defense but so do TCU, Wake Forest, Clemson, Syracuse, and Cal Poly yet in no other game have we run like this. Encouraging. Three of our four best run blocking performances in PFF's lights have been in the last month. Stanford also joins SMU and NC State as the only teams with three players in the top 30 in the ACC in yards per carry (Davis, Daniels, and Ford), and that's before Tabb is now added to the mix. If the Taylor regime sticks around it is easier to see the hopes for the run game's future than it was a year ago this time. I think that's about all that qualifies for longer term optimism these days, but I'd be remiss not to point out the glimmer of hope for the run game going forward (which IMHO has more to do with RBs than with the OL rounding into shape).
8. Bummer for Daniels and for us that he got knocked out of the game. He was playing extremely well, #4 of 98 quarterbacks nationally in Total QBR this week (Lamson was #89), which I find remarkable given the fumbles. You turn the ball over on a strip-sack and also give up a big loss because you don't keep your eyes on the center's snap and you still end up with one of the better QB weeks nationally? Has to be a heck of a game to do that, and he did have a heck of a game. I presume (but don't know) it was a concussion or something close enough to that ballpark we didn't risk it; hope he's ok. One of my better in-season predictions this season was my call that Daniels would start reverting to the mean and play much better than his miserable September. Yesterday was not only the best game of his career but he's been much better these last three games than he had been prior to that. He's now #95 of 130 QBs nationally in Total QBR on the season, with seven Power Four QBs worse, and clearly trending in the right direction. Meanwhile, our (my) certitude that QB was what was holding the team back appears to have been a bit overstated. #95 of 130 is bad, but it's becoming increasingly clear a great many things on our team are that bad or worse. It's kind of sobering but Daniels is one of the ten or so best players on our team. Looking forward, people in and out of the program are going to wonder if we run it back with him as QB1 next year. Too early to say and one has to imagine Taylor (if he keeps his job) presents it once again as a competition. But with the new indications that we are going to try to preserve Brown's redshirt if we can (he is allowed one more game but if he plays in two of the remaining games that burns his year), it seems that we won't get many more data points on Brown this year. I'd be very open to a transfer but my guess is that Daniels puts together another solid game or two this season and we go into the off-season with happy talk that we have multiple QBs we believe in. I don't think fans should trust in that/Taylor as much as we did heading into this season.
9. Where I think Taylor's confidence has been most reinforced by what we've seen on the field this year is his talk about the young running backs. His anticipation preseason was palpable and I don't think the young backs have disappointed, especially considering they are running behind what PFF considers the #107 run blocking in the nation. I mentioned above that Ford and Davis are both top 30 in the ACC in yards per carry, and Tabb's college debut yesterday was an even better yards per carry than either. We'll see what it all looks like at the end of the year, but I am more confident than I have been in years that Stanford has talent and depth at running back. If we could ever block for these guys I think they'd be fun (and effective) as hell. Elsewhere among skill players, Ayomanor has been really heating up the last few weeks, Mosley is not quite as advertised but had one great big play yesterday, and Roush had a quiet game statistically but PFF thought he dominated in run blocking. [Moving the sticks (first down) leader board: Ayomanor (4, also drew a pass interference), Daniels (3), Lamson (3), Tabb (2), Mosley, Roush, Irvin] Along the offensive line, PFF thought House and Baklenko had the best games of their careers (Baklenko swapping in for McLaughlin after the latter's early failures got him benched again), Leyrer had a second consecutive solid game, Maikkula was meh (but continuing a trend of being more serviceable than the early games this season), and Pale's slump continued.
6. As we could all see, it was a comprehensive defensive failure. That was the highest passer rating we've allowed since September 2022 against USC. CJ Bailey is the #45 Total QBR guy in the country and was #1 this week. Just had his way. With Bailey being a true freshman thrust into action mid-season, a Pollyanna might cite the possibility he's the real deal as the explanation for this torching and I'd like to believe that, but this game was consistent with our endemic pass defense incompetence. To wit: we are now #131 in defensive passer rating. Fact is nobody in Power Four is as incapable of pass defense as we are. To date we've told ourselves a story of compensating somewhat for that with a competitive run defense. Alas, that went down in an inglorious blaze yesterday too. After consistently holding opponents under their average, we gave up three yards more per carry than NC State's average. This was the second worst we've been carved up by a run game in the April era and the most success NC State has had on the ground since the first game of the 2021 season. Complete disaster for our run defense. I noted earlier in the year that the April run defense showed some signs of life last year - doing better than the opponent's average seven times - but in the final analysis it was a bad run defense (#100 in yards per carry allowed). It is sobering to think that after all the signs of progress we perceived seeing this season in the run defense we now head into the final three games #79 in yards per carry allowed. This could be deja vu with last year in terms of run defense progress turning out to be fool's gold. The fact the breakdown happened at this stage of the season against a very bad run game (even after yesterday NC State is #86 in yards per carry) raises the alarm for me that we are seeing the breakdown of will and fight in our defense.
7. The offensive stats kind of shocked me when I dug into them this morning. This was easily our most efficient passing day (aside from Cal Poly) in the two year Taylor era AND the most yards per carry in a game in the Taylor era. Simply put, the Taylor offense has never gobbled up yards like it did yesterday. The passing game was not able to take more advantage of the efficiency because we only passed 16 times, the lowest in the last eight seasons. Part of this was the offense being hamstrung by what the defense allowed NC State to do in controlling the game but it also, like the Notre Dame game, may speak to a lack of trust in our passing. Still, the chunk plays to Ayomanor and Mosley may be something to build on. There were also things to build on in the run game. Daniels' enormous runs to paydirt had a lot to do with the rushing stats being so good but it was a very good rushing performance independent of that with Tabb's extremely encouraging debut (72 yards on 6.2 yards per carry) as well. NC State has a bad run defense but so do TCU, Wake Forest, Clemson, Syracuse, and Cal Poly yet in no other game have we run like this. Encouraging. Three of our four best run blocking performances in PFF's lights have been in the last month. Stanford also joins SMU and NC State as the only teams with three players in the top 30 in the ACC in yards per carry (Davis, Daniels, and Ford), and that's before Tabb is now added to the mix. If the Taylor regime sticks around it is easier to see the hopes for the run game's future than it was a year ago this time. I think that's about all that qualifies for longer term optimism these days, but I'd be remiss not to point out the glimmer of hope for the run game going forward (which IMHO has more to do with RBs than with the OL rounding into shape).
8. Bummer for Daniels and for us that he got knocked out of the game. He was playing extremely well, #4 of 98 quarterbacks nationally in Total QBR this week (Lamson was #89), which I find remarkable given the fumbles. You turn the ball over on a strip-sack and also give up a big loss because you don't keep your eyes on the center's snap and you still end up with one of the better QB weeks nationally? Has to be a heck of a game to do that, and he did have a heck of a game. I presume (but don't know) it was a concussion or something close enough to that ballpark we didn't risk it; hope he's ok. One of my better in-season predictions this season was my call that Daniels would start reverting to the mean and play much better than his miserable September. Yesterday was not only the best game of his career but he's been much better these last three games than he had been prior to that. He's now #95 of 130 QBs nationally in Total QBR on the season, with seven Power Four QBs worse, and clearly trending in the right direction. Meanwhile, our (my) certitude that QB was what was holding the team back appears to have been a bit overstated. #95 of 130 is bad, but it's becoming increasingly clear a great many things on our team are that bad or worse. It's kind of sobering but Daniels is one of the ten or so best players on our team. Looking forward, people in and out of the program are going to wonder if we run it back with him as QB1 next year. Too early to say and one has to imagine Taylor (if he keeps his job) presents it once again as a competition. But with the new indications that we are going to try to preserve Brown's redshirt if we can (he is allowed one more game but if he plays in two of the remaining games that burns his year), it seems that we won't get many more data points on Brown this year. I'd be very open to a transfer but my guess is that Daniels puts together another solid game or two this season and we go into the off-season with happy talk that we have multiple QBs we believe in. I don't think fans should trust in that/Taylor as much as we did heading into this season.
9. Where I think Taylor's confidence has been most reinforced by what we've seen on the field this year is his talk about the young running backs. His anticipation preseason was palpable and I don't think the young backs have disappointed, especially considering they are running behind what PFF considers the #107 run blocking in the nation. I mentioned above that Ford and Davis are both top 30 in the ACC in yards per carry, and Tabb's college debut yesterday was an even better yards per carry than either. We'll see what it all looks like at the end of the year, but I am more confident than I have been in years that Stanford has talent and depth at running back. If we could ever block for these guys I think they'd be fun (and effective) as hell. Elsewhere among skill players, Ayomanor has been really heating up the last few weeks, Mosley is not quite as advertised but had one great big play yesterday, and Roush had a quiet game statistically but PFF thought he dominated in run blocking. [Moving the sticks (first down) leader board: Ayomanor (4, also drew a pass interference), Daniels (3), Lamson (3), Tabb (2), Mosley, Roush, Irvin] Along the offensive line, PFF thought House and Baklenko had the best games of their careers (Baklenko swapping in for McLaughlin after the latter's early failures got him benched again), Leyrer had a second consecutive solid game, Maikkula was meh (but continuing a trend of being more serviceable than the early games this season), and Pale's slump continued.