11-17-2024, 02:06 PM
7. Ok, enough suspense on player of the game. What a game by Mosley. Multiple true freshman school records (though with Ayomanor's redshirt freshman explosion last year we're somewhat limited in other historical superlatives). The only Stanford players to have 18 points in a game since 2016 are Ayomanor against Colorado last year, Fehoko against UCLA in 2020, Parkinson against Oregon State in 2018 (24 points!), Arcega-Whiteside against San Diego State in 2018 (20), Arcega-Whiteside against UCLA in 2018, Scarlett against Rice in 2017, Scarlett against UCLA in 2017, Arcega-Whiteside in the Alamo Bowl against TCU in 2017, Love against Arizona State in 2017, Love against Washington in 2017, McCaffrey against Arizona in 2016, McCaffrey against Oregon in 2016, and McCaffrey against Cal in 2016. (Ok, not THAT rare, but only the second time post-pandemic). Mosley moving the chains a ridiculous nine times matches Ayomanor's Colorado performance in that respect. [Moving the chains (first down) leader board: Mosley (9), Tabb (2), Ayomanor (2), Daniels, Roush, Lamson, Cisse, Bachmeier, Davis] A 62 yard touchdown is needless to say a massive explosive play. In short, this was a coming out party. We will see how the next few weeks go, but Mosley is in the mix to potentially lead ACC freshmen in receiving yards per game. Looking at the historical sweep of Stanford freshmen, Mosley is currently accounting for 19 percent of our passing offense (and keep in mind that is after missing the first three games of the season), which if he stays at that level or above will rank with Ayomanor, Sherman, Bradford, and Yurosek as the most impactful receiving freshmen for Stanford in the 23 years I've tracked that stat. I think it is safe to say, especially since the early games were returning from injury, that this performance is a validating one for the hype Mosley was getting in the off-season. We have an absurdly good WR duo for a team of our quality. (Speaking of which, Ayomanor mostly had a quiet game and the "interception" was a bad mistake by him, but his two big plays in this game were very, very big)
8. I think Mosley made Daniels look good more than Daniels made Mosley look good but fundamentally it does take two to tango and this was a good game by Daniels. Daniels' second half of the season improvement and regression to a more competitive level of play continued, with his Total QBR ranking 62nd of 111 QBs nationally this week, which likely undervalues his level of play as the interception was a big mark against him that I think most of us put on Ayomanor and would have rather seen ruled a fumble. On the year, Daniels is now up to the #90 QB in America, with nine Power Four guys worse. Much more respectable than he was looking earlier in the year. In fact, with a good close to the season he has a chance of besting his ranking from last year (#85) and perhaps McKee's from the year before that (#79). I still think Daniels holds us back, but on a team where that is true in so many places we do have to credit him from the grit and contributions that give us a chance. He's got a chance to remain QB1 for a third year. Let's see how the next few weeks go.
9. I think it's becoming clear that whatever one thinks of Daniels, OL holds us back even more. This is bad, folks. Sacks are partly a QB stat, but six sacks allowed against a team that averages 2.50 is not good. The run game stats I mentioned above are not good. Being ten games into a season and having none of your currently starting OL be among the top 600 OL in the country (SIX MOTHER FREAKING HUNDRED) is not good. [One backup is top 400 and one currently injured player is top 500] This situation is so catastrophically bad at OL that I am loath to single out any one individual (if I did House having the second worst season ever recorded for a Stanford guy would be something to highlight) but just as an explanation of why I am despondent about it, so much of our theory of the case, to the extent that we have one, is that we have young OL who will get better and yet our young OL are not showing signs of getting better, having a baseline that is particularly promising, or sticking around for the long haul (especially considering they burned redshirts). I think we need to expect major changes in the off-season to provide an indication we are trying to fix this debilitating weakness, for instance in the form of both a shuffle on the coaching staff and an insistence that we bring in significant transfers.
10. When I refer to a team effort and contributions across the phases, a fair amount of that on defense has to do with a few players really showing up. It's not as stark as the singular importance Mosley had on the offense, but a few guys stood out more than the others on defense. On a day when only 6-7 defenders had multiple plays that showed up positively in the box score (Bailey, Bernadel, Rose, Staples, Edwards, and Franklin, plus Cooper had one such play but was not credited with a tackle for loss or forced fumble on the play where he set the edge and the back fumbled and fell on it), Bailey and Bernadel each uncorked six positive plays while Rose and Staples each had four, though in Staples' case two were QB hurries where good plays by Shough made it ultimately a better play for Louisville than for Stanford. Bailey stands out to me above all not only for the number of helpful plays but that two of them came in fourth quarter crunch time, including a third down hurry. As usual disappointed not to have more impact from the DL but have to shout out Rowell getting hands up and causing the interception that went to Bernadel, who in addition to the interception was productive in run defense and stepped up nicely in Sinclair's absence. I wish Tafiti and Phillips (hate to say it but I don't think Stanford will miss Phillips much when he's gone) would have built on recent quality performances and that Morris and Nicholson hadn't regressed toward the mean the last two games.
11. Special teams was a story of Kenney, obviously. Made field goals of 41, 24, and 52 (game-winner!) were big contributions. Fun quote from Kenney to Taylor about how Kenney was prepared to nail the initial try before the Louisville offsides, but I sure am glad we got the offsides. Again, I don't think we win without Louisville shooting themselves in the foot. Will take it any day though! Flintoft had net punts of 37 to the 13 (solid), 31 to the 47 (bad due to the return), 31 to the 15 (less than ideal), and 38 to the 32 (remarkably ok result on a blocked punt). Bachmeier had punt returns of 3 and 6 yards and kick returns of 12 to the 20, 22 to the 26, and 13 to the 20. He's a very mediocre returner in both jobs. I hope we can upgrade that going forward but for now am grateful for basic competence. While Kenney will of course get the game ball for walking off the second time this season, it's a mixed bag on kickoffs, in this one getting good starting position due to a holding call and otherwise letting Louisville start on the 42 on an ill-advised pooch, 35 on the always aggravating kick out of bounds, 22 (shout out to Butler and Dubre in coverage), 23 (shout out to Leigber in coverage), and 19 (shout out to Kasemervisz and Mattingly in coverage in crunch time). Our special teams is ok but not an advantage. By the way, our five most relied upon special teams players all participated in Senior Day (Dubre, Raines, Evan Jackson, Shield Taylor, Kasemervisz), so we are losing a ton from special teams. However, Gregory has spoken to relying on veterans (and, implicitly, backups) for special teams, so one can imagine we can cycle new guys into these roles fairly easily next year).
12. Speaking of Senior Day tea leaves, the group photo of the Senior Day participants included, from left to right, Sinclair, Leigber, Dubre, Shield Taylor, Bernadel, Franklin, Evan Jackson, Aristotle Taylor, Raines, Lucas, Kenney, Leyrer, Uke, Buckey, Weselman, Lamson, and Kasemervisz. Among those who have eligibility remaining, Leigber, Franklin, and Leyrer are starters while Lamson is a key contributor. I think it would probably be preferable for Franklin and Leyrer to come back, but neither plays at a level that it moves the needle. Ultimately, this Senior Day group cycling out is a benefit to the program. In terms of participation, it is odd that Sinclair would be the only super senior to participate, with Patterson, Phillips, Bryce Farrell, Ungar, Rogers, McLaughlin, and Porter all not in the photo. I wonder if the photo wasn't everybody or if those players' absence indicates anything about the possibility some of those guys may come back. Aybar and Mayberry were the only other seniors not in the photo. My two cents are that Leigber, Franklin, Patterson, Phillips, Rogers (though he wouldn't seem to have eligibility left, making non-participation more mysterious), McLaughlin, and Aybar are the only ones that should be invited back and/or considered for enticements to stay via revenue sharing or NIL.
13. Game balls: Mosley, Bailey, Kenney, Taylor
14. It's premature to say this game salvaged the season but happily it at least gives us some hope. Having two more games like this and ending the season 5-7 would undoubtedly feel like progress. The season would then take on a totally different feel than where we've been most of this fall. One can also imagine scenarios in which effective salesmanship/spin makes a four win season feel like something we can build on. After yesterday, it now feels much more reasonable to hope these last two games can be something worth rooting for. For now, all that is before is Big Game and a pretty classic (for this rivalry) matchup of a mediocre team trying to make a bowl against a bad team with a puncher's chance of ruining the party. Let's get the Axe!
8. I think Mosley made Daniels look good more than Daniels made Mosley look good but fundamentally it does take two to tango and this was a good game by Daniels. Daniels' second half of the season improvement and regression to a more competitive level of play continued, with his Total QBR ranking 62nd of 111 QBs nationally this week, which likely undervalues his level of play as the interception was a big mark against him that I think most of us put on Ayomanor and would have rather seen ruled a fumble. On the year, Daniels is now up to the #90 QB in America, with nine Power Four guys worse. Much more respectable than he was looking earlier in the year. In fact, with a good close to the season he has a chance of besting his ranking from last year (#85) and perhaps McKee's from the year before that (#79). I still think Daniels holds us back, but on a team where that is true in so many places we do have to credit him from the grit and contributions that give us a chance. He's got a chance to remain QB1 for a third year. Let's see how the next few weeks go.
9. I think it's becoming clear that whatever one thinks of Daniels, OL holds us back even more. This is bad, folks. Sacks are partly a QB stat, but six sacks allowed against a team that averages 2.50 is not good. The run game stats I mentioned above are not good. Being ten games into a season and having none of your currently starting OL be among the top 600 OL in the country (SIX MOTHER FREAKING HUNDRED) is not good. [One backup is top 400 and one currently injured player is top 500] This situation is so catastrophically bad at OL that I am loath to single out any one individual (if I did House having the second worst season ever recorded for a Stanford guy would be something to highlight) but just as an explanation of why I am despondent about it, so much of our theory of the case, to the extent that we have one, is that we have young OL who will get better and yet our young OL are not showing signs of getting better, having a baseline that is particularly promising, or sticking around for the long haul (especially considering they burned redshirts). I think we need to expect major changes in the off-season to provide an indication we are trying to fix this debilitating weakness, for instance in the form of both a shuffle on the coaching staff and an insistence that we bring in significant transfers.
10. When I refer to a team effort and contributions across the phases, a fair amount of that on defense has to do with a few players really showing up. It's not as stark as the singular importance Mosley had on the offense, but a few guys stood out more than the others on defense. On a day when only 6-7 defenders had multiple plays that showed up positively in the box score (Bailey, Bernadel, Rose, Staples, Edwards, and Franklin, plus Cooper had one such play but was not credited with a tackle for loss or forced fumble on the play where he set the edge and the back fumbled and fell on it), Bailey and Bernadel each uncorked six positive plays while Rose and Staples each had four, though in Staples' case two were QB hurries where good plays by Shough made it ultimately a better play for Louisville than for Stanford. Bailey stands out to me above all not only for the number of helpful plays but that two of them came in fourth quarter crunch time, including a third down hurry. As usual disappointed not to have more impact from the DL but have to shout out Rowell getting hands up and causing the interception that went to Bernadel, who in addition to the interception was productive in run defense and stepped up nicely in Sinclair's absence. I wish Tafiti and Phillips (hate to say it but I don't think Stanford will miss Phillips much when he's gone) would have built on recent quality performances and that Morris and Nicholson hadn't regressed toward the mean the last two games.
11. Special teams was a story of Kenney, obviously. Made field goals of 41, 24, and 52 (game-winner!) were big contributions. Fun quote from Kenney to Taylor about how Kenney was prepared to nail the initial try before the Louisville offsides, but I sure am glad we got the offsides. Again, I don't think we win without Louisville shooting themselves in the foot. Will take it any day though! Flintoft had net punts of 37 to the 13 (solid), 31 to the 47 (bad due to the return), 31 to the 15 (less than ideal), and 38 to the 32 (remarkably ok result on a blocked punt). Bachmeier had punt returns of 3 and 6 yards and kick returns of 12 to the 20, 22 to the 26, and 13 to the 20. He's a very mediocre returner in both jobs. I hope we can upgrade that going forward but for now am grateful for basic competence. While Kenney will of course get the game ball for walking off the second time this season, it's a mixed bag on kickoffs, in this one getting good starting position due to a holding call and otherwise letting Louisville start on the 42 on an ill-advised pooch, 35 on the always aggravating kick out of bounds, 22 (shout out to Butler and Dubre in coverage), 23 (shout out to Leigber in coverage), and 19 (shout out to Kasemervisz and Mattingly in coverage in crunch time). Our special teams is ok but not an advantage. By the way, our five most relied upon special teams players all participated in Senior Day (Dubre, Raines, Evan Jackson, Shield Taylor, Kasemervisz), so we are losing a ton from special teams. However, Gregory has spoken to relying on veterans (and, implicitly, backups) for special teams, so one can imagine we can cycle new guys into these roles fairly easily next year).
12. Speaking of Senior Day tea leaves, the group photo of the Senior Day participants included, from left to right, Sinclair, Leigber, Dubre, Shield Taylor, Bernadel, Franklin, Evan Jackson, Aristotle Taylor, Raines, Lucas, Kenney, Leyrer, Uke, Buckey, Weselman, Lamson, and Kasemervisz. Among those who have eligibility remaining, Leigber, Franklin, and Leyrer are starters while Lamson is a key contributor. I think it would probably be preferable for Franklin and Leyrer to come back, but neither plays at a level that it moves the needle. Ultimately, this Senior Day group cycling out is a benefit to the program. In terms of participation, it is odd that Sinclair would be the only super senior to participate, with Patterson, Phillips, Bryce Farrell, Ungar, Rogers, McLaughlin, and Porter all not in the photo. I wonder if the photo wasn't everybody or if those players' absence indicates anything about the possibility some of those guys may come back. Aybar and Mayberry were the only other seniors not in the photo. My two cents are that Leigber, Franklin, Patterson, Phillips, Rogers (though he wouldn't seem to have eligibility left, making non-participation more mysterious), McLaughlin, and Aybar are the only ones that should be invited back and/or considered for enticements to stay via revenue sharing or NIL.
13. Game balls: Mosley, Bailey, Kenney, Taylor
14. It's premature to say this game salvaged the season but happily it at least gives us some hope. Having two more games like this and ending the season 5-7 would undoubtedly feel like progress. The season would then take on a totally different feel than where we've been most of this fall. One can also imagine scenarios in which effective salesmanship/spin makes a four win season feel like something we can build on. After yesterday, it now feels much more reasonable to hope these last two games can be something worth rooting for. For now, all that is before is Big Game and a pretty classic (for this rivalry) matchup of a mediocre team trying to make a bowl against a bad team with a puncher's chance of ruining the party. Let's get the Axe!