12-02-2024, 07:15 PM
Time for the annual check-in comparing how I did in predicting Stanford's top contributors with how PFF viewed our players as faring. Here are the top 35 contributors for 2024 Stanford football ranked in order of PFF grades (with the delta between predicted and actual included parenthetically):
1. David Bailey - 90.7 (+3)
2. Gaethan Bernadel - 75.2 (+22)
3. Ashton Daniels - 75.1 (nailed it!)
4. Collin Wright - 73.0 (-2)
5. Elic Ayomanor - 72.1 (-4)
6. Jaylen'Dai Sumlin - 70.0 (not on the board preseason)
7. Tristan Sinclair - 68.2 (+19)
8. Emmett Mosley V - 66.1 (+5)
9. Scotty Edwards - 66.0 (-4)
10. Connor McLaughlin - 65.8 (nailed it!)
10. Chris Davis Jr. - 65.8 (+1 but really nailed it! because he and McLaughlin were 10/11)
12. Mitch Leigber - 65.4- (+11)
13. Micah Ford - 64.9 (-4)
14. Levi Rogers - 64.5 (-8)
15. Ismael Cisse - 63.7 (not on the board preseason)
16. Anthony Franklin - 63.0 (-9)
17. Sam Roush - 62.9 (+2)
18. Brandon Nicholson - 62.8 (+9)
19. Zahran Manley - 62.3 (-4)
20. Wilfredo Aybar - 62.1 (-8)
21. Tevarua Tafiti - 61.6 (-1)
22. Benji Blackburn - 60.8 (+12)
23. Ernest Cooper - 60.6 (not on the board preseason)
24. Matt Rose - 58.9 (not on the board preseason)
25. Zach Rowell - 58.2 (+3)
26. Jake Maikkula - 58.1 (+4)
27. Braden Marceau-Olayinka - 57.9 (not on the board preseason)
28. Tobin Phillips - 57.2 (-14)
29. Simione Pale - 56.8 (-4)
30. Luke Baklenko - 55.7 (-1)
31. Jack Leyrer - 52.7 (-10)
32. Aaron Morris - 51.3 (+3)
33. Tiger Bachmeier - 48.2 (-17)
34. Cam Richardson - 45.0 (not on the board preseason)
35. Kahlil House - 43.3 (not on the board preseason)
Observations:
* I got six of the top ten right but with Davis I probably should get credit for seven, plus I was close on Mosley and Ford. That's the best I've done since my remarkable eight in 2020. I had five in 2023 and four each in 2022 and 2021. I didn't do as well at the very top of the roster as I usually do as Ayomanor and Wright slightly disappointed. I always get 28-29 of the top 35 right and this year was the same, 28 right for the fourth time in five years (29 the other year). All in all this was one of my best performances.
* The players I got wrong were Elijah Brown, Che Ojarikre, Jackson Harris, Clay Patterson, Fisher Anderson, Jay Green, and Omari Porter. That was mostly a function of injuries. My big miss was not predicting that House would leap frog Anderson, though perhaps if that decision was less exuberant/speculative/wishful I would have been right about that too. Harris’ doghouse situation is the mystery of the year.
* Bailey was our best player but he played a lot less than most of the other top guys, 364 snaps compared to 703 for Bernadel or even among OLBs 580 for Tafiti and 460 for Cooper. We basically turned Bailey into a rotational guy. Given the high level of production there’s a case to be made for that, but it’s odd for your most talented player to be 13th on the defense and 27th (!) on the team in snaps despite not missing a game. PFF would perhaps make a case for Bernadel to be named the defensive MVP but I predict it will be Sinclair. Losing the two of them simultaneously leaves a big hole in the defense, though I think them each having such glow ups this year coupled with years of data from the Wisconsin defense can give us reasonable hope that 2023 was an outlier and we can expect this staff to make ILBs look good. I feel ok about the Galvan, Rose, Mattingly group next year, to mention anybody who emerges or transfers in. I think this is a group we could upgrade rather than an outlier concern.
* Two years in to the Taylor regime the position I would say has most consistently over-performed talent and expectations has been safety. Couple that with special teams generally being an asset and the need for a green defensive coordinator to have an experienced sounding board and I would say that from this outsider’s perspective Gregory adds a lot of value. Especially with Green and Ojarikre being hurt this year, I feel much better about safety than many do. As with everywhere we need difference makers and lack that but this is a more competent group than at least some positions, without the on-paper talent that would give any confidence that would be the case.
* After an encouraging 2023, DL had a disappointing year. Talk about a group that could use a difference maker. I like the depth that has emerged but we really need Kolodziej to coax something more out of somebody than what we got this year from this group.
* Pending retention, wide receiver and running back look like the strengths of the team for next year. Based on current trajectories it is possible tight end will no longer be a drag. That would be nice. Again, pending retention, a lot to look forward to with skill positions for next year.
* Leyrer, Morris, Bachmeier, Richardson, and House played like guys we need to over-recruit. Bachmeier being over-recruited appears to have already happened with JonAnthony Hall. With Leyrer I would expect that to be addressed via a transfer or freshman (several options across the rising redshirt and true freshmen classes). With House we appear committed to trial by fire as we did with Pale and Baklenko. With Morris and Richardson……whooo boy. We can always hope for a diamond in the true freshman rough, but that didn’t work for us this year. Come on transfer ex machina. For what it’s worth, this year when it came to the 2023 players who played like they needed to be over-recruited we did indeed over-recruit in most instances but did the aforementioned trial by fire with Baklenko and saw our patience with Sinclair pay off. I would expect something similar this year with House being safe and Leyrer and/or Bachmeier having at least a chance of forbearance.
* We had EIGHT true freshman key contributors. And I thought four in 2023 was a lot. This was quite the youth movement, as announcers reminded us ad nauseum. Hopefully it pays dividends down the road. And this isn’t even counting guys like Brown, Tabb, and Asiain, or big recruits I’m not counting on but could have it click health and/or potential-wise like Umeh and Stephenson. Those who talk about it being a young team that will get better aren’t wrong. Some things to look forward to next year.
* Another silver lining is that we had six key contributors with 70+ grades (as of now….caveat for all of this is PFF makes adjustments), so many more than last years rock bottom of two. Sumlin is an asterisk as he is right on the cusp and barely back door snuck into being a key contributor in the last few games (I would imagine most fans without the benefit of snap counts would view new single season QB rushing touchdown record holder Lamson as a more key contributor) but even putting him aside it seems like we will have several good players back next year. It’s Master of the Obvious stuff but retaining Bailey, Ayomanor, Wright, and Daniels is a big deal.
* Another silver lining is that we continued the progress from last year in avoiding disastrously incompetent performances, with three sub-50 grades better than the four last year which was better than the five in 2022 which was better than the eight in 2021. We also repeated last year’s accomplishment of not having a laughable sub-40 grade or two as we did at the tail end of Shaw. PFF is providing some evidence of slowly crawling out of Shaw’s hole.
* The focus of our coming weeks will be how much we can retain to try build some momentum in this dreadfully slow rebuild. Last year we returned 12 of our 15 best players, one of the absolute most returning production in the nation. Next year it looks like it may be 10-11, still a lot. Keep an eye on that as it will be important to make next year feel like a build with some continuity.
P.S. I did this yesterday before the Baklenko news.
1. David Bailey - 90.7 (+3)
2. Gaethan Bernadel - 75.2 (+22)
3. Ashton Daniels - 75.1 (nailed it!)
4. Collin Wright - 73.0 (-2)
5. Elic Ayomanor - 72.1 (-4)
6. Jaylen'Dai Sumlin - 70.0 (not on the board preseason)
7. Tristan Sinclair - 68.2 (+19)
8. Emmett Mosley V - 66.1 (+5)
9. Scotty Edwards - 66.0 (-4)
10. Connor McLaughlin - 65.8 (nailed it!)
10. Chris Davis Jr. - 65.8 (+1 but really nailed it! because he and McLaughlin were 10/11)
12. Mitch Leigber - 65.4- (+11)
13. Micah Ford - 64.9 (-4)
14. Levi Rogers - 64.5 (-8)
15. Ismael Cisse - 63.7 (not on the board preseason)
16. Anthony Franklin - 63.0 (-9)
17. Sam Roush - 62.9 (+2)
18. Brandon Nicholson - 62.8 (+9)
19. Zahran Manley - 62.3 (-4)
20. Wilfredo Aybar - 62.1 (-8)
21. Tevarua Tafiti - 61.6 (-1)
22. Benji Blackburn - 60.8 (+12)
23. Ernest Cooper - 60.6 (not on the board preseason)
24. Matt Rose - 58.9 (not on the board preseason)
25. Zach Rowell - 58.2 (+3)
26. Jake Maikkula - 58.1 (+4)
27. Braden Marceau-Olayinka - 57.9 (not on the board preseason)
28. Tobin Phillips - 57.2 (-14)
29. Simione Pale - 56.8 (-4)
30. Luke Baklenko - 55.7 (-1)
31. Jack Leyrer - 52.7 (-10)
32. Aaron Morris - 51.3 (+3)
33. Tiger Bachmeier - 48.2 (-17)
34. Cam Richardson - 45.0 (not on the board preseason)
35. Kahlil House - 43.3 (not on the board preseason)
Observations:
* I got six of the top ten right but with Davis I probably should get credit for seven, plus I was close on Mosley and Ford. That's the best I've done since my remarkable eight in 2020. I had five in 2023 and four each in 2022 and 2021. I didn't do as well at the very top of the roster as I usually do as Ayomanor and Wright slightly disappointed. I always get 28-29 of the top 35 right and this year was the same, 28 right for the fourth time in five years (29 the other year). All in all this was one of my best performances.
* The players I got wrong were Elijah Brown, Che Ojarikre, Jackson Harris, Clay Patterson, Fisher Anderson, Jay Green, and Omari Porter. That was mostly a function of injuries. My big miss was not predicting that House would leap frog Anderson, though perhaps if that decision was less exuberant/speculative/wishful I would have been right about that too. Harris’ doghouse situation is the mystery of the year.
* Bailey was our best player but he played a lot less than most of the other top guys, 364 snaps compared to 703 for Bernadel or even among OLBs 580 for Tafiti and 460 for Cooper. We basically turned Bailey into a rotational guy. Given the high level of production there’s a case to be made for that, but it’s odd for your most talented player to be 13th on the defense and 27th (!) on the team in snaps despite not missing a game. PFF would perhaps make a case for Bernadel to be named the defensive MVP but I predict it will be Sinclair. Losing the two of them simultaneously leaves a big hole in the defense, though I think them each having such glow ups this year coupled with years of data from the Wisconsin defense can give us reasonable hope that 2023 was an outlier and we can expect this staff to make ILBs look good. I feel ok about the Galvan, Rose, Mattingly group next year, to mention anybody who emerges or transfers in. I think this is a group we could upgrade rather than an outlier concern.
* Two years in to the Taylor regime the position I would say has most consistently over-performed talent and expectations has been safety. Couple that with special teams generally being an asset and the need for a green defensive coordinator to have an experienced sounding board and I would say that from this outsider’s perspective Gregory adds a lot of value. Especially with Green and Ojarikre being hurt this year, I feel much better about safety than many do. As with everywhere we need difference makers and lack that but this is a more competent group than at least some positions, without the on-paper talent that would give any confidence that would be the case.
* After an encouraging 2023, DL had a disappointing year. Talk about a group that could use a difference maker. I like the depth that has emerged but we really need Kolodziej to coax something more out of somebody than what we got this year from this group.
* Pending retention, wide receiver and running back look like the strengths of the team for next year. Based on current trajectories it is possible tight end will no longer be a drag. That would be nice. Again, pending retention, a lot to look forward to with skill positions for next year.
* Leyrer, Morris, Bachmeier, Richardson, and House played like guys we need to over-recruit. Bachmeier being over-recruited appears to have already happened with JonAnthony Hall. With Leyrer I would expect that to be addressed via a transfer or freshman (several options across the rising redshirt and true freshmen classes). With House we appear committed to trial by fire as we did with Pale and Baklenko. With Morris and Richardson……whooo boy. We can always hope for a diamond in the true freshman rough, but that didn’t work for us this year. Come on transfer ex machina. For what it’s worth, this year when it came to the 2023 players who played like they needed to be over-recruited we did indeed over-recruit in most instances but did the aforementioned trial by fire with Baklenko and saw our patience with Sinclair pay off. I would expect something similar this year with House being safe and Leyrer and/or Bachmeier having at least a chance of forbearance.
* We had EIGHT true freshman key contributors. And I thought four in 2023 was a lot. This was quite the youth movement, as announcers reminded us ad nauseum. Hopefully it pays dividends down the road. And this isn’t even counting guys like Brown, Tabb, and Asiain, or big recruits I’m not counting on but could have it click health and/or potential-wise like Umeh and Stephenson. Those who talk about it being a young team that will get better aren’t wrong. Some things to look forward to next year.
* Another silver lining is that we had six key contributors with 70+ grades (as of now….caveat for all of this is PFF makes adjustments), so many more than last years rock bottom of two. Sumlin is an asterisk as he is right on the cusp and barely back door snuck into being a key contributor in the last few games (I would imagine most fans without the benefit of snap counts would view new single season QB rushing touchdown record holder Lamson as a more key contributor) but even putting him aside it seems like we will have several good players back next year. It’s Master of the Obvious stuff but retaining Bailey, Ayomanor, Wright, and Daniels is a big deal.
* Another silver lining is that we continued the progress from last year in avoiding disastrously incompetent performances, with three sub-50 grades better than the four last year which was better than the five in 2022 which was better than the eight in 2021. We also repeated last year’s accomplishment of not having a laughable sub-40 grade or two as we did at the tail end of Shaw. PFF is providing some evidence of slowly crawling out of Shaw’s hole.
* The focus of our coming weeks will be how much we can retain to try build some momentum in this dreadfully slow rebuild. Last year we returned 12 of our 15 best players, one of the absolute most returning production in the nation. Next year it looks like it may be 10-11, still a lot. Keep an eye on that as it will be important to make next year feel like a build with some continuity.
P.S. I did this yesterday before the Baklenko news.