[BostonCard]

I didn’t want to get too into it because it is even more technical/wonky, but the other major assumption that went into the math is that the observations are independent, which they are clearly not; there is a very strong correlation in the near term, and since this is an oscillating pattern, probably a strong inverse correlation over the course of an oscillation.

I have no idea how much these simplifying assumptions affect the calculation of just how common (or rare) the temperature anomaly is.  I take this as a back-of-the envelope “assume a spherical cow” kind of simplifying assumptions that makes the calculation much easier (trivial in today’s era of computers and calculators) to convey that this is quite an outlier in terms of ocean temperatures.  I think it is fine for a newspaper article; I would not rely on it if I were an insurance adjustor.

BC

[BostonCard]

I didn’t want to get too into it because it is even more technical/wonky, but the other major assumption that went into the math is that the observations are independent, which they are clearly not; there is a very strong correlation in the near term, and since this is an oscillating pattern, probably a strong inverse correlation over the course of an oscillation.

I have no idea how much these simplifying assumptions affect the calculation of just how common (or rare) the temperature anomaly is.  I take this as a back-of-the envelope “assume a spherical cow” kind of simplifying assumptions that makes the calculation much easier (trivial in today’s era of computers and calculators) to convey that this is quite an outlier in terms of ocean temperatures.  I think it is fine for a newspaper article; I would not rely on it if I were an insurance adjustor.

BC