Yesterday, 08:24 PM
1. It was great to be on campus for a win on a beautiful day amidst the reunion throngs. It was not great that the state of the program is such that the throngs almost all stayed outside the stadium. I can’t really blame them. I am normally a highly attentive diehard but I focused on the gridiron less than I ever remember doing, deciding that conversations outside the stadium with friends (shoutout Jackie Brown!) were worth missing kickoff and conversations in the stadium with freshmen dorm mates were worth missing plays here and there and there again. If that was my attitude, no wonder the multitudes decided to stay at tailgates, stroll the campus, or play with their kids. The team has not shown it’s worth much opportunity cost or excitement, and this was fairly pointless to play an overmatched Elon (oh so many jokes this weekend asking who/what/where/why is Elon). I basically felt like the game was a pleasant backdrop for conversations among those of us reunion attendees fond about football and gameday tradition. A place to be like a class lunch or class panel, much less appointment necessity than a class party or class tailgate. It gave me something to think about that the Classes Without Quizzes made me feel more connected to the school than the football game did. The crowd (a misnomer if there ever was one) yesterday really drove home that the school needs to get serious about football or else it is probably too embarrassing and wasteful to bother.
2. But we did win handily. More to like than has been our norm. It was the second best scoreboard performance relative to opponent of the Pritchard era and only the second time he’s had a top 100 kind of outcome (outcomes so far befitting #104, #146, #146, #54, #250, #166, and #91). Looking at net yards per play versus an opponent’s norm, this game was on par with 2022 Colgate as genuine domination and better than 2024 Cal Poly despite the score. The offense doing 2.43 yards per play better than Elon’s average allowed is essentially identical to the Colgate game’s 2.42. The defense doing 1.00 yards per play better than Elon’s norm is right in between how we did against Cal Poly and Colgate (and obviously much better than the Sacramento State fiasco). In other words, this game reinforced that we are one of the worst power teams in the country but at the same time was better than most games recently. On the season, we are Sagarin #99 and are in the negative 1.2x net yard for play range, pretty similar to our typical 2020s levels of performance. Having so many reunion conversations with friends close to the program who are being fed lines about our impending investments and dissatisfaction with the status quo, I get a picture we are resigned to the current mire and hope for improvements over the horizon. The horizon has felt like a mirage for quite a while now.
3. Each side of the ball for us had a fun bright spot. On offense, it was getting 200+ yards rushing and our most yards per carry in a game in five years. It’s Elon, but they’re a stout FCS run defense. Based on how we’ve been playing, I did not consider run success at all a given. This was a nice confidence boost for the line and career best stat padding for Ford. The passing game was less impressive, only modestly ahead of our averages, worse than we did against both Hawaii and Georgia Tech. Somewhat jarring to not be able to carve up an FCS pass defense. On defense, it was utter domination of an atrocious passing team. Not a fair fight. 1.9 yards per attempt is one of the funniest stats you’ll ever see. Other than the 2014 Army game, which only had five pass attempts, I can’t recall anything quite like it. The 2017 Oregon game had a better defensive passer rating due to interceptions. This was a serious contender for modern records in Stanford pass defense when the opponent actually passed. Far less happy was run defense giving up similar stats to Elon’s run game as what we accomplished in that phase. Giving up 220 yards on 6.5 yards per carry is a horrid failure. Our run defense was worse than Wofford, Maine, Sacred Heart, Rhode Island, Davidson, and Glenville State. Were it not for New Hampshire, we would have done worse than everybody an FCS team has played two thirds into the season. Shameful.
4. Warren seemed ok, turning in his best Total QBR since Georgia Tech but not one of his standout performances. He’s now 83rd on the season in Total QBR, not holding us back but also not a difference maker. The big statistical star was of course Ford. Happy for him and hope it’s not his last century mark game. I don’t think this fun fact will last but for what it’s worth Ford is now tied with Cole Tabb for 11th in the nation in rushing touchdowns (Ashton Daniels is fourth). Irvin had a few first downs and the touchdown but the fumble made the margin less wide than it should have been. Quiet day for the receivers. PFF thought Prongos was supernova dominant and that House and Williams were good. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Ford (14), Irvin (3), Hall (2), Nico Brown (2), Onovughe (2), Blackburn (2), Hampton (2), Holt]
5. The defense didn’t have anybody really superlative by either my box score tracking or PFF but had a number of solid performances. Bryant, Davis, Mattingly, Tafiti, Marceau-Olayinka, and Kaminski graded well. Bryant is lately playing like one of our better players. Davis has had a nightmare year, so it was nice to see him affect the scoreboard by making the tackle on third and forever to force an unsuccessful field goal attempt, get a tackle for loss, and defend a pass. It was a nice reward for BMO’s not always rewarded disruption that he twice forced a punt via hurries. Bachhuber, Staples, Rowell, and Galvan had grades that are really tough to stomach against FCS opposition, though Staples and Rowell had several plays each that showed up in the box score (as did Shovlin).
6. What the heck Emmet Kenney? A missed 35 yard chip shot and a missed extra point are horrible looks, and it’s far from the first time this season we’ve had reason to question place kicking reliability. Pretty frustrating for a player of his station in the program. Disappointing career trajectory for him. Those four gimme points off the board plus the Irvin touchback fumble are reminders that the game was even less close than the score. Should have been a cover and more dominant vibes. Winning by 35-38 would have felt a lot better. This team just can’t seem to generate real momentum in the micro or the macro. Flintoft had net punts of 44 to the 37 (good), 30 to the 26 (quite bad), 38 to the 46 (mediocre) and 41 to the 16 (solid). Butler had a return of 13 to give up 12 yards of field position and Davis had a 37 yard return to gain 13 yards of field position. The special teams standout was Thorpe and the punt return unit with a 17 yard return to get to midfield, a 33 yard return to get into Phoenix territory, and a 9 yard return, as well as a fair catch that may have saved a few yards. Eckhardt and Kuo had coverage tackles.
7. Game balls: Micah Ford, Darrius Davis, Liam Thorpe, Tavita Thompson
8. Hard to say any game is big for a program that attracts a homecoming “crowd” like we just did and is just hoping to get to four or five wins that would still place us among the dregs of recent college football. Still, by our standards, Friday night upcoming is one to circle on the calendar. This may be our most winnable game left, certainly one of the two obvious candidates remaining to get another win to get to the modal outcome of a repeat four win season. We can have legitimate hope of stealing one from the cross-country traveling and late night playing NC State. After our blowout frequency and magnitude, it would be wild to get to .500. It could happen. This would be a good time for Pritchard and the squad to show they are capable of playing like an FBS team two games in a row. They’ve yet to show that.
2. But we did win handily. More to like than has been our norm. It was the second best scoreboard performance relative to opponent of the Pritchard era and only the second time he’s had a top 100 kind of outcome (outcomes so far befitting #104, #146, #146, #54, #250, #166, and #91). Looking at net yards per play versus an opponent’s norm, this game was on par with 2022 Colgate as genuine domination and better than 2024 Cal Poly despite the score. The offense doing 2.43 yards per play better than Elon’s average allowed is essentially identical to the Colgate game’s 2.42. The defense doing 1.00 yards per play better than Elon’s norm is right in between how we did against Cal Poly and Colgate (and obviously much better than the Sacramento State fiasco). In other words, this game reinforced that we are one of the worst power teams in the country but at the same time was better than most games recently. On the season, we are Sagarin #99 and are in the negative 1.2x net yard for play range, pretty similar to our typical 2020s levels of performance. Having so many reunion conversations with friends close to the program who are being fed lines about our impending investments and dissatisfaction with the status quo, I get a picture we are resigned to the current mire and hope for improvements over the horizon. The horizon has felt like a mirage for quite a while now.
3. Each side of the ball for us had a fun bright spot. On offense, it was getting 200+ yards rushing and our most yards per carry in a game in five years. It’s Elon, but they’re a stout FCS run defense. Based on how we’ve been playing, I did not consider run success at all a given. This was a nice confidence boost for the line and career best stat padding for Ford. The passing game was less impressive, only modestly ahead of our averages, worse than we did against both Hawaii and Georgia Tech. Somewhat jarring to not be able to carve up an FCS pass defense. On defense, it was utter domination of an atrocious passing team. Not a fair fight. 1.9 yards per attempt is one of the funniest stats you’ll ever see. Other than the 2014 Army game, which only had five pass attempts, I can’t recall anything quite like it. The 2017 Oregon game had a better defensive passer rating due to interceptions. This was a serious contender for modern records in Stanford pass defense when the opponent actually passed. Far less happy was run defense giving up similar stats to Elon’s run game as what we accomplished in that phase. Giving up 220 yards on 6.5 yards per carry is a horrid failure. Our run defense was worse than Wofford, Maine, Sacred Heart, Rhode Island, Davidson, and Glenville State. Were it not for New Hampshire, we would have done worse than everybody an FCS team has played two thirds into the season. Shameful.
4. Warren seemed ok, turning in his best Total QBR since Georgia Tech but not one of his standout performances. He’s now 83rd on the season in Total QBR, not holding us back but also not a difference maker. The big statistical star was of course Ford. Happy for him and hope it’s not his last century mark game. I don’t think this fun fact will last but for what it’s worth Ford is now tied with Cole Tabb for 11th in the nation in rushing touchdowns (Ashton Daniels is fourth). Irvin had a few first downs and the touchdown but the fumble made the margin less wide than it should have been. Quiet day for the receivers. PFF thought Prongos was supernova dominant and that House and Williams were good. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Ford (14), Irvin (3), Hall (2), Nico Brown (2), Onovughe (2), Blackburn (2), Hampton (2), Holt]
5. The defense didn’t have anybody really superlative by either my box score tracking or PFF but had a number of solid performances. Bryant, Davis, Mattingly, Tafiti, Marceau-Olayinka, and Kaminski graded well. Bryant is lately playing like one of our better players. Davis has had a nightmare year, so it was nice to see him affect the scoreboard by making the tackle on third and forever to force an unsuccessful field goal attempt, get a tackle for loss, and defend a pass. It was a nice reward for BMO’s not always rewarded disruption that he twice forced a punt via hurries. Bachhuber, Staples, Rowell, and Galvan had grades that are really tough to stomach against FCS opposition, though Staples and Rowell had several plays each that showed up in the box score (as did Shovlin).
6. What the heck Emmet Kenney? A missed 35 yard chip shot and a missed extra point are horrible looks, and it’s far from the first time this season we’ve had reason to question place kicking reliability. Pretty frustrating for a player of his station in the program. Disappointing career trajectory for him. Those four gimme points off the board plus the Irvin touchback fumble are reminders that the game was even less close than the score. Should have been a cover and more dominant vibes. Winning by 35-38 would have felt a lot better. This team just can’t seem to generate real momentum in the micro or the macro. Flintoft had net punts of 44 to the 37 (good), 30 to the 26 (quite bad), 38 to the 46 (mediocre) and 41 to the 16 (solid). Butler had a return of 13 to give up 12 yards of field position and Davis had a 37 yard return to gain 13 yards of field position. The special teams standout was Thorpe and the punt return unit with a 17 yard return to get to midfield, a 33 yard return to get into Phoenix territory, and a 9 yard return, as well as a fair catch that may have saved a few yards. Eckhardt and Kuo had coverage tackles.
7. Game balls: Micah Ford, Darrius Davis, Liam Thorpe, Tavita Thompson
8. Hard to say any game is big for a program that attracts a homecoming “crowd” like we just did and is just hoping to get to four or five wins that would still place us among the dregs of recent college football. Still, by our standards, Friday night upcoming is one to circle on the calendar. This may be our most winnable game left, certainly one of the two obvious candidates remaining to get another win to get to the modal outcome of a repeat four win season. We can have legitimate hope of stealing one from the cross-country traveling and late night playing NC State. After our blowout frequency and magnitude, it would be wild to get to .500. It could happen. This would be a good time for Pritchard and the squad to show they are capable of playing like an FBS team two games in a row. They’ve yet to show that.