11-05-2026, 02:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2026, 02:19 PM by OCcardinal.)
(11-04-2026, 10:54 PM)steinerwj Wrote: Pre-season poll - St.Mary's 9th out of 10 teams in WCCThis will surely be a quad 4 game when all is said and done. The 9th place WCC teams typically end up somewhere in the 220s in NET Rating. So I compared some stats with those from Stanford's 20 Quad 4 games over the previous two seasons (2024–25 and 2025–26):
- Scoring: +7.0 points above average (87 vs. 80.0). Best: 107 vs. 2024–25 Le Moyne (NET 357). Worst: 54 vs. 2025–26 Washington State (NET 227).
- Winning margin: +5.8 above average (+33 vs. +27.2). Best: +64 vs. 2024–25 Le Moyne (NET 357). Worst: −4 vs. 2025–26 FGCU (NET 157).
- FG shooting: +7.6 percentage points above average (56.5% vs. 48.9%). Best: 66.7% vs. 2025–26 Lehigh (NET 191). Worst: 29.8% vs. 2025–26 Wake Forest (NET 128).
- 3PT shooting: +0.4 percentage points above average (35.3% vs. 34.9%). Best: 70.0% vs. 2024–25 Washington State (NET 124). Worst: 11.1% vs. 2025–26 Washington State (NET 227). [Interesting to have both the best and worst performances against the same team!]
- Rebounding margin: +1.8 rebounds above average (+15 vs. +13.2). Best: +31 vs. 2025–26 UC Davis (NET 167). Worst: −2 vs. 2024–25 Gonzaga (NET 95).
- Assists: +6.4 above average (22 vs. 15.6). Best: 25 vs. 2024–25 Le Moyne (NET 357). Worst: 9 vs. 2024–25 UC Davis (NET 145) and 2025–26 UC Davis (NET 167).
- Steals: +7.0 above average (16 vs. 9.0). Best: 17 vs. 2025–26 Cornell (NET 299). Worst: 2 vs. 2025–26 UC Davis (NET 167).
- Opponent turnovers forced: +9.2 above average (25 vs. 15.8), the best of all 21 games. Previous best: 21 vs. 2025–26 Cornell (NET 299) and 2025–26 Cal Poly (NET 338). Worst: 6 vs. 2025–26 UC Davis (NET 167).
- Stanford turnovers committed: +2.5 above average (15 vs. 12.5). Best: 5 vs. 2024–25 Gonzaga (NET 95) and 2025–26 Pittsburgh (NET 265). Worst: 25 vs. 2024–25 UC San Diego (NET 182).
- Opponent FG% allowed: +3.0 percentage points worse than average (37.7% vs. 34.7%), ranked T-14th of 21. Best: 22.4% vs. 2025–26 UC Davis (NET 167). Worst: 48.2% vs. 2025–26 FGCU (NET 157).
- Opponent 3PT% allowed: +22.5 percentage points worse than average (50.0% vs. 27.5%), tied for worst of 21 games. Best: 0.0% vs. 2024–25 Pittsburgh (NET 135). Worst: 50.0% vs. 2024–25 Washington State (NET 124), tied with Saint Mary's.
However, the defensive shooting stats are a bit concerning. Saint Mary's 50.0% three-point shooting tied for the worst Stanford allowed against this group, nearly double the historical average of 27.5%. (Though they improved in the second half.) Stanford also committed more turnovers than usual (15 vs. 12.5). Much better than 30, but a bit high for a team of this caliber.
