[BostonCard]

I'm only continuing this because the statistics interests me, not because I'm trying to argue anything about our former coach.

First, there is some selective data going on. 

In 1995 we made the second round despite being a 10 seed; 36% probability
In 1996 we made the second round despite being a 9 seed (we exceeded our seeding, but not our probability); 54% probability
In 1997 we made the sweet sixteen despite being a 6 seed; 36% probability
In 1998 we made the final four despite being a 3 seed; 13% probability

Not surprisingly, we had a tendency to exceed our seed when we had low seeds.  When we were seeded better, we tended to underperform our seedings
In 1989 we were a three seed and lost in the first round (16% probability)
In 1999 we were a two seed and lost in the second round (37% probability)
In 2000 we were a one seed and lost in the second round (13% probability)
In 2001 we were a one seed and lost in the elite eight (29% probability)
In 2003 we were a four seed and lost in the second round (57% probability)
In 2004 we were a one seed and lost in the second round (13% probability)

Let's call 1992 (12 seed losing in the first round), 1996 (9 seed losing in the second round), 2001 (8 seed losing in the second round), and 2003 (4 seed losing in the second round) to be doing about what was expected statistically.

During Montgomery's tenure, then, we exceeded expectations three times (1995, 1997, 1998) met expectations three times (1992, 1996, 2001), and missed expectations four times (1989, 2000, 2001, and 2004).  It is really hard to say that Monty systematically missed expectations.

BC

[BostonCard]

I'm only continuing this because the statistics interests me, not because I'm trying to argue anything about our former coach.

First, there is some selective data going on. 

In 1995 we made the second round despite being a 10 seed; 36% probability
In 1996 we made the second round despite being a 9 seed (we exceeded our seeding, but not our probability); 54% probability
In 1997 we made the sweet sixteen despite being a 6 seed; 36% probability
In 1998 we made the final four despite being a 3 seed; 13% probability

Not surprisingly, we had a tendency to exceed our seed when we had low seeds.  When we were seeded better, we tended to underperform our seedings
In 1989 we were a three seed and lost in the first round (16% probability)
In 1999 we were a two seed and lost in the second round (37% probability)
In 2000 we were a one seed and lost in the second round (13% probability)
In 2001 we were a one seed and lost in the elite eight (29% probability)
In 2003 we were a four seed and lost in the second round (57% probability)
In 2004 we were a one seed and lost in the second round (13% probability)

Let's call 1992 (12 seed losing in the first round), 1996 (9 seed losing in the second round), 2001 (8 seed losing in the second round), and 2003 (4 seed losing in the second round) to be doing about what was expected statistically.

During Montgomery's tenure, then, we exceeded expectations three times (1995, 1997, 1998) met expectations three times (1992, 1996, 2001), and missed expectations four times (1989, 2000, 2001, and 2004).  It is really hard to say that Monty systematically missed expectations.

BC