[TriangleTree]

Agree that the parallels to Cuba today are limited.
Whether by choice or not, Venezuela has maintained a market economy that has been hobbled but persevered. There are still too many that have too much to loose, in contrast to Cuba where by now the majority knows nothing other than life under communism.
The Venezuelan situation is likely more comparable to 1961 in Cuba before the Bay of Pigs, when there was growing discontent and many still felt that regime change was realistic.
Still, back then Cuba could rely on another superpower to back them up without risking complete isolation. Today's Venezuela can rely on Argentina and Bolivia, not exactly worldbeaters and who knows for how long. That will limit his options particularly around repression. Governments like Brazil will be forced to withdraw support if these get out of hand, and at some point the US will also have to make a call on oil reliance, which I think the shale bonanza makes more realistic. It will be interesting to see the course Maduro takes, but he's pretty cornered up. The oposition has moved to the center so there is no much room to move in that direction. He can try to accelerate the move to the left but he has clearly no broad support for it, and he can only achieve this through repression. I also don't see him stepping down as he can always hang his hat on being "democratically" elected.
Ukraine II (or is it III now?) seems like the more likely outcome, the difficult thing is that unlike Ukraine, sympathies do not show a clear geographical divide. In Venezuela's case, the divide takes place even at family level.
This one is more difficult to predict than than the Oregon game...

[TriangleTree]

Agree that the parallels to Cuba today are limited.
Whether by choice or not, Venezuela has maintained a market economy that has been hobbled but persevered. There are still too many that have too much to loose, in contrast to Cuba where by now the majority knows nothing other than life under communism.
The Venezuelan situation is likely more comparable to 1961 in Cuba before the Bay of Pigs, when there was growing discontent and many still felt that regime change was realistic.
Still, back then Cuba could rely on another superpower to back them up without risking complete isolation. Today's Venezuela can rely on Argentina and Bolivia, not exactly worldbeaters and who knows for how long. That will limit his options particularly around repression. Governments like Brazil will be forced to withdraw support if these get out of hand, and at some point the US will also have to make a call on oil reliance, which I think the shale bonanza makes more realistic. It will be interesting to see the course Maduro takes, but he's pretty cornered up. The oposition has moved to the center so there is no much room to move in that direction. He can try to accelerate the move to the left but he has clearly no broad support for it, and he can only achieve this through repression. I also don't see him stepping down as he can always hang his hat on being "democratically" elected.
Ukraine II (or is it III now?) seems like the more likely outcome, the difficult thing is that unlike Ukraine, sympathies do not show a clear geographical divide. In Venezuela's case, the divide takes place even at family level.
This one is more difficult to predict than than the Oregon game...