[CTcard]

In theory the Crystal Ball should produce reasonably accurate predictions -- wisdom of crowds and all that 

I have seen a few detailed studies on the purported wisdom of crowds. From what I remember, there is some evidence of increased accuracy if the topic is one in which most everyone has some reasonable information but nobody has substantially better info than average. The concept is apparently quite fallacious if the topic involves specialized information.

Where predicting which schools recruits will pick falls is unclear to me. In some cases it seems the pundits don't have much in the way of particular information - relying upon general concepts like geographic proximity, which are the more powerful programs, their own preferences, or pull something out of ... nowhere. In some cases there does seem to be particular information, perhaps the kids or those who really know them (parents, sometimes coaches) have made statements that make their intentions fairly clear.

There may also be an extra-Stanford effect. A certain set of kids keep their interest in Stanford under wraps until they know if it actually will be an option for them (i.e. gain acceptance). This is such a rare situation in the world of college football I think many pundits simply cannot process the idea.

[CTcard]

In theory the Crystal Ball should produce reasonably accurate predictions -- wisdom of crowds and all that 

I have seen a few detailed studies on the purported wisdom of crowds. From what I remember, there is some evidence of increased accuracy if the topic is one in which most everyone has some reasonable information but nobody has substantially better info than average. The concept is apparently quite fallacious if the topic involves specialized information.

Where predicting which schools recruits will pick falls is unclear to me. In some cases it seems the pundits don't have much in the way of particular information - relying upon general concepts like geographic proximity, which are the more powerful programs, their own preferences, or pull something out of ... nowhere. In some cases there does seem to be particular information, perhaps the kids or those who really know them (parents, sometimes coaches) have made statements that make their intentions fairly clear.

There may also be an extra-Stanford effect. A certain set of kids keep their interest in Stanford under wraps until they know if it actually will be an option for them (i.e. gain acceptance). This is such a rare situation in the world of college football I think many pundits simply cannot process the idea.