[Hank 91]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=10491.msg96112#msg96112 date=1409542126]
Keep in mind that Vegas spreads aren't predictions, at least not about who will win. They're predictions about how people will bet. Some teams get a boost just because lots of people bet on them, and USC is one. My guess is that if we were playing Unabashedly Scamming Charlatans's team but with a different name, the spread would be -6 or -7.

If this were true, you could make some easy money by betting against Unabashedly Scamming Charlatans every game. After all, you only need to be right 53.7% of the time to make money. I think the market is efficient and there are enough people countering this to make the large schools' point spreads accurate.
[/quote]

If this weren't true, betting lines wouldn't move during the week. They don't move because teams are getting better or worse, they move because too much money is coming in on one side or the other.

Other teams with inflated lines are NotreDame and the Dallas Cowboys.

[Hank 91]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=10491.msg96112#msg96112 date=1409542126]
Keep in mind that Vegas spreads aren't predictions, at least not about who will win. They're predictions about how people will bet. Some teams get a boost just because lots of people bet on them, and USC is one. My guess is that if we were playing Unabashedly Scamming Charlatans's team but with a different name, the spread would be -6 or -7.

If this were true, you could make some easy money by betting against Unabashedly Scamming Charlatans every game. After all, you only need to be right 53.7% of the time to make money. I think the market is efficient and there are enough people countering this to make the large schools' point spreads accurate.
[/quote]

If this weren't true, betting lines wouldn't move during the week. They don't move because teams are getting better or worse, they move because too much money is coming in on one side or the other.

Other teams with inflated lines are NotreDame and the Dallas Cowboys.