[Mick]

I'm not sure whether stars being predictive matters a ton. The important thing, for the non-expert, is that they're grokkable. It may be that you can figure out how good a prospect is from offer lists and measurables, but then again, maybe not. Is an offer list headed by UCLA and Wisconsin better than one headed by Washington, Nebraska and Arkansas? Not immediately obvious to me. (And that's compounded by recent trends for ever-expanding numbers of offers from schools, which makes it harder to figure out what an "offer" means. Does it mean you're the #1 OLB on the board, or the #15 guy?)

Given all that, why not simply pay attention to something that's easy to understand and has a well-known correlation with individual and team success?

In my professional life, I'm what amounts to a sales manager for lawyers.  On occasion, a lawyer will want to use a low-probability-of-success sales approach, usually one that has worked in the past, but in a broadly different situation.  Slaves to precedent, they can be.  I always say the same thing: "Fine, if you want to go that route, go ahead.  But you'd better win.  Otherwise, we'll go with the strategy that has won in the past, in this situation."

I feel the same about two-stars vs. five-star athletes.  Fine, go with the two star.  As long as you win.

[Mick]

I'm not sure whether stars being predictive matters a ton. The important thing, for the non-expert, is that they're grokkable. It may be that you can figure out how good a prospect is from offer lists and measurables, but then again, maybe not. Is an offer list headed by UCLA and Wisconsin better than one headed by Washington, Nebraska and Arkansas? Not immediately obvious to me. (And that's compounded by recent trends for ever-expanding numbers of offers from schools, which makes it harder to figure out what an "offer" means. Does it mean you're the #1 OLB on the board, or the #15 guy?)

Given all that, why not simply pay attention to something that's easy to understand and has a well-known correlation with individual and team success?

In my professional life, I'm what amounts to a sales manager for lawyers.  On occasion, a lawyer will want to use a low-probability-of-success sales approach, usually one that has worked in the past, but in a broadly different situation.  Slaves to precedent, they can be.  I always say the same thing: "Fine, if you want to go that route, go ahead.  But you'd better win.  Otherwise, we'll go with the strategy that has won in the past, in this situation."

I feel the same about two-stars vs. five-star athletes.  Fine, go with the two star.  As long as you win.