New wave of SIP

[magnus]

New Mexico appears to be the first state to go back into a shelter in place mode.

https://www.governor.state.nm.us/2020/11...trictions/

This will last 2 weeks and closes most non-essential businesses.  Residents are advised to stay at home except for essential trips.

With no sign of slow down, I'd expect more states to follow suit.  As we saw earlier, some counties (like El Paso) have already started down the shelter in place path.

[BostonCard]

Oregon right behind.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020...california

BC

[Genuine Realist]

Oregon right behind.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020...california

BC

Political disaster. Very unwise.

[M T]

California has rules in place that are going to be closing some things down as cases go up.

California has issued a travel advisory.

It is very wise to protect your citizens, even from unwise citizens.

Travel Advisory for Non-Essential Travel[1]
1. Persons arriving in California from other states or countries, including returning California residents, should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival. These persons should limit their interactions to their immediate household. This recommendation does not apply to individuals who cross state or country borders for essential travel.
2. Californians are encouraged to stay home or in their region and avoid non-essential travel to other states or countries. Avoiding travel can reduce the risk of virus transmission and bringing the virus back to California.

[1] “Non-essential travel” includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature.
[2] “Essential travel” includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.

[Snorlax94]

The timing is obvious.

The fear of course is that Thanksgiving get-togethers will lead to a of immense proportions spike in cases, and it will, so you start a 2 week shelter in place 13 days before Thanksgiving, so people will have time to plan accordingly, and, they hope, not plan any Thanksgiving gatherings.

Then, miraculously, the plan is to lift the SIP just in time for Black Friday, to try to contain Covid as much as possible now while retaining as much commerce as possible in December. It’s not an unreasonable attempt. Without a SiP now, the cases would grow wildly up to Black Friday, and the peak could arrive right when retail and food eatablishments are most desperate to stay in business.

I hope they can get their cases down enough, but I worry they will not.

[lex24]

California has rules in place that are going to be closing some things down as cases go up.

California has issued a travel advisory.

It is very wise to protect your citizens, even from unwise citizens.

Travel Advisory for Non-Essential Travel[1]
1. Persons arriving in California from other states or countries, including returning California residents, should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival. These persons should limit their interactions to their immediate household. This recommendation does not apply to individuals who cross state or country borders for essential travel.
2. Californians are encouraged to stay home or in their region and avoid non-essential travel to other states or countries. Avoiding travel can reduce the risk of virus transmission and bringing the virus back to California.

[1] “Non-essential travel” includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature.
[2] “Essential travel” includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.

Unenforceable.  Achieves nothing. Impose a national travel ban.  And watch all hell break loose. 
It’s the holidays.  People are going to travel.  Not as many as usual. But plenty.

[M T]

California has rules in place that are going to be closing some things down as cases go up.

California has issued a travel advisory.

It is very wise to protect your citizens, even from unwise citizens.

Travel Advisory for Non-Essential Travel[1]
1. Persons arriving in California from other states or countries, including returning California residents, should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival. These persons should limit their interactions to their immediate household. This recommendation does not apply to individuals who cross state or country borders for essential travel.
2. Californians are encouraged to stay home or in their region and avoid non-essential travel to other states or countries. Avoiding travel can reduce the risk of virus transmission and bringing the virus back to California.

[1] “Non-essential travel” includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature.
[2] “Essential travel” includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.

Unenforceable.  Achieves nothing. Impose a national travel ban.  And watch all hell break loose. 
It’s the holidays.  People are going to travel.  Not as many as usual. But plenty.

I see "advisory", "should", "recommendation", "encouraged".  

Asserting "Unenforceable" here is as pertinent as replying "Unenforceable" to "Have a good day!".

I'd love to see Newsom publicly impose a 14-day quarantine on himself for going to that dinner.

[lex24]

California has rules in place that are going to be closing some things down as cases go up.

California has issued a travel advisory.

It is very wise to protect your citizens, even from unwise citizens.

Travel Advisory for Non-Essential Travel[1]
1. Persons arriving in California from other states or countries, including returning California residents, should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival. These persons should limit their interactions to their immediate household. This recommendation does not apply to individuals who cross state or country borders for essential travel.
2. Californians are encouraged to stay home or in their region and avoid non-essential travel to other states or countries. Avoiding travel can reduce the risk of virus transmission and bringing the virus back to California.

[1] “Non-essential travel” includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature.
[2] “Essential travel” includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.

Unenforceable.  Achieves nothing. Impose a national travel ban.  And watch all hell break loose. 
It’s the holidays.  People are going to travel.  Not as many as usual. But plenty.

I see "advisory", "should", "recommendation", "encouraged".  

Asserting "Unenforceable" here is as pertinent as replying "Unenforceable" to "Have a good day!".

I'd love to see Newsom publicly impose a 14-day quarantine on himself for going to that dinner.

Point taken.  Unenforceable was a poor word choice.  Should have said useless.

[dabigv13]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

[Genuine Realist]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

I agree with the societal changes, and I think they are happening. BUT .   .

Almost the worst political mistake you can make as an American politician is to attempt to impose on the American people a moral order with which they don't agree. I do believe more than a few governors - by coincidence or not, all Democrats - Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Kate Brown, etc. - have done exactly that. With he Great Satan disappearing from center stage, they are now wide open. 

Biden is destined to have an extremely short honeymoon, because these are intractable problems for which there is no good solution.  The election was anything but a referendum for the Democrats - quite the contrary. The more alert of them are already scared to death for 2022, when the convenient target of Trump will be gone. (They will still run against him.)

For my two cents, the worst thing they can do is insist on draconian SIP orders, particularly when they are unwilling to abide by them themselves. Some sensible occupancy regulations will pass muster, but the full fledged lockdown just will not work politically. (It didn't work all that well in Europe.) I believed in that stuff last March, when some breathing space was necessary to figure out what was appropriate social response. But we have pretty much done that now, and I think you are going to have to show some basic trust in the public to understand what is going on.  The public reads the same headlines the politicians do - I notice a lot more masks in open aire this last week than I did a few weeks ago. 

Attempting, however to make the people do what you think is required on a we-know-what's-best-for-you basis is to play with fire, and almost certainly get burned.

[lex24]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

I agree with the societal changes, and I think they are happening. BUT .   .

Almost the worst political mistake you can make as an American politician is to attempt to impose on the American people a moral order with which they don't agree. I do believe more than a few governors - by coincidence or not, all Democrats - Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Kate Brown, etc. - have done exactly that. With he Great Satan disappearing from center stage, they are now wide open. 

Biden is destined to have an extremely short honeymoon, because these are intractable problems for which there is no good solution.  The election was anything but a referendum for the Democrats - quite the contrary. The more alert of them are already scared to death for 2022, when the convenient target of Trump will be gone. (They will still run against him.)

For my two cents, the worst thing they can do is insist on draconian SIP orders, particularly when they are unwilling to abide by them themselves. Some sensible occupancy regulations will pass muster, but the full fledged lockdown just will not work politically. (It didn't work all that well in Europe.) I believed in that stuff last March, when some breathing space was necessary to figure out what was appropriate social response. But we have pretty much done that now, and I think you are going to have to show some basic trust in the public to understand what is going on.  The public reads the same headlines the politicians do - I notice a lot more masks in open aire this last week than I did a few weeks ago. 

Attempting, however to make the people do what you think is required on a we-know-what's-best-for-you basis is to play with fire, and almost certainly get burned.

Agree, GR.

[dabigv13]

So, choosing the more deaths and more long term disability path.

[Snorlax94]

Oh great, we’re back to Surrender Monkeys

Looks like some people are hoping the next administion will be as incompetent and hapless as the outgoing one.
 
Just because something is hard and some people give up on it, doesn’t mean everyone will wilt in the face of difficulty and give up.

Tens of thousands of Americans are going to die in the next 3 months. Tens of thousands. And hundreds of thousands of Americans will face long-term and possibly lifelong complications. Americans just responded to this question, and they are sick of lies, sick of incompetence and reject surrender.

[BostonCard]

Whitmer, you may be surprised to find out, enjoys a net positive approval rating in Michigan, and Michiganders particularly approve of her handling of COVID-19.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p...051858002/

Nearly 54% of Michigan voters view the Democratic governor favorably and 59% approve of the job she's doing, according to the Oct. 23-25 survey of 600 likely Michigan voters. The job approval number inches up to 61% about her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

BC

[magnus]

Whitmer, you may be surprised to find out, enjoys a net positive approval rating in Michigan, and Michiganders particularly approve of her handling of COVID-19.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p...051858002/

Nearly 54% of Michigan voters view the Democratic governor favorably and 59% approve of the job she's doing, according to the Oct. 23-25 survey of 600 likely Michigan voters. The job approval number inches up to 61% about her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

BC

Seems like that's not far from party demographics?

[akiddoc]

Whitmer, you may be surprised to find out, enjoys a net positive approval rating in Michigan, and Michiganders particularly approve of her handling of COVID-19.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p...051858002/

Nearly 54% of Michigan voters view the Democratic governor favorably and 59% approve of the job she's doing, according to the Oct. 23-25 survey of 600 likely Michigan voters. The job approval number inches up to 61% about her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

BC

Seems like that's not far from party demographics?

47% of Michigan adults are Democrats or lean Democrat. 34% Republican or lean that way.

[OutsiderFan]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

I agree with the societal changes, and I think they are happening. BUT .   .

Almost the worst political mistake you can make as an American politician is to attempt to impose on the American people a moral order with which they don't agree. I do believe more than a few governors - by coincidence or not, all Democrats - Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Kate Brown, etc. - have done exactly that. With he Great Satan disappearing from center stage, they are now wide open. 

Biden is destined to have an extremely short honeymoon, because these are intractable problems for which there is no good solution.  The election was anything but a referendum for the Democrats - quite the contrary. The more alert of them are already scared to death for 2022, when the convenient target of Trump will be gone. (They will still run against him.)

For my two cents, the worst thing they can do is insist on draconian SIP orders, particularly when they are unwilling to abide by them themselves. Some sensible occupancy regulations will pass muster, but the full fledged lockdown just will not work politically. (It didn't work all that well in Europe.) I believed in that stuff last March, when some breathing space was necessary to figure out what was appropriate social response. But we have pretty much done that now, and I think you are going to have to show some basic trust in the public to understand what is going on.  The public reads the same headlines the politicians do - I notice a lot more masks in open aire this last week than I did a few weeks ago. 

Attempting, however to make the people do what you think is required on a we-know-what's-best-for-you basis is to play with fire, and almost certainly get burned.

You should withhold judgment until you see what real leadership in government looks like. You haven't seen it for so long it doesn't even seem possible it actually can exist. I'm no Presidential historian, but for my money, LBJ was the last one we had.  We've had POTUSs with good character or that wanted to do the right thing for the country, but we haven't had anyone who could truly rally the country and get them bought into doing much together for each other since him, while pushing Congress to bend to his will. Biden could be that leader. He has been flawless since Election Day in the face of less than ideal circumstances. I am more optimistic about him now and think he has the potential to be much more effective than I thought possible.

[2006alum]

I suspect communities will be more receptive to SIP rules as COVID hits their communities the way it hit NYC in March/April. Almost everyone I know who lived through those six weeks takes COVID very seriously, but precisely because our mitigation efforts were very successful initially, I think many chafe at SIP as an unnecessary restriction. When half the country resembles N.D., folks will fall into line. 

I just wish there was less moralizing/hectoring. Carrots work better than sticks, and you can bring a horse to water, but can't make them drink. Maybe we just ask nicely and remind people that masking, etc., is for the benefit of their friends, neighbors, and community. I really, really wish we could de-escalate the partisanship associated w/ all of this. It's foolish, counter-productive, and a lose-lose for everyone. If DJT is in fact out the door, can we please move past finger pointing and just focus on thoughtfully balancing productive mitigation efforts against costs to social and economic wellbeing?

[Mick]

I'd love to see Newsom publicly impose a 14-day quarantine on himself for going to that dinner.

Probably the only thing he could do to generate a sliver of respect for himself after a colossally stupid decision.

Incidentally, Newsom has enjoyed one-man powers under this state of emergency during the entire time.  Some members of the Democratic California Assembly (but I repeat myself) are bristling:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/11/08/w...alifornia/

A judge finally told him to knock it off:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/11/02/j...-pandemic/

[Genuine Realist]

This entire thread by the Trevor Bedford, the geneticist responsible for helping identify the earliest transmission chains in Washington, and currently mapping the WH superspreader event, is well worth reading. The comparison to pandemic flu in 1918/19 is very apt. 

Essentially the choice we face is either making societal changes that will bring Rt back to 1 and ending exponential growth, or we wait until the virus brings us there through community immunity. The vaccine won't come soon enough to head that off. The second route means many many more deaths and long term sequelae of course.

I hope the lockdown comes soon in California, but at least leave the beaches and parks and forests open please!

I agree with the societal changes, and I think they are happening. BUT .   .

Almost the worst political mistake you can make as an American politician is to attempt to impose on the American people a moral order with which they don't agree. I do believe more than a few governors - by coincidence or not, all Democrats - Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Kate Brown, etc. - have done exactly that. With he Great Satan disappearing from center stage, they are now wide open. 

Biden is destined to have an extremely short honeymoon, because these are intractable problems for which there is no good solution.  The election was anything but a referendum for the Democrats - quite the contrary. The more alert of them are already scared to death for 2022, when the convenient target of Trump will be gone. (They will still run against him.)

For my two cents, the worst thing they can do is insist on draconian SIP orders, particularly when they are unwilling to abide by them themselves. Some sensible occupancy regulations will pass muster, but the full fledged lockdown just will not work politically. (It didn't work all that well in Europe.) I believed in that stuff last March, when some breathing space was necessary to figure out what was appropriate social response. But we have pretty much done that now, and I think you are going to have to show some basic trust in the public to understand what is going on.  The public reads the same headlines the politicians do - I notice a lot more masks in open aire this last week than I did a few weeks ago. 

Attempting, however to make the people do what you think is required on a we-know-what's-best-for-you basis is to play with fire, and almost certainly get burned.

You should withhold judgment until you see what real leadership in government looks like. You haven't seen it for so long it doesn't even seem possible it actually can exist. I'm no Presidential historian, but for my money, LBJ was the last one we had.  We've had POTUSs with good character or that wanted to do the right thing for the country, but we haven't had anyone who could truly rally the country and get them bought into doing much together for each other since him, while pushing Congress to bend to his will. Biden could be that leader. He has been flawless since Election Day in the face of less than ideal circumstances. I am more optimistic about him now and think he has the potential to be much more effective than I thought possible.

Excuse me, but I am 74 and have lived long enough to have witnessed real Presidential leadership. There is no question that Trump was a terrible example.

But you also have to have solutions. In these pre-vaccine days, I don't think there is an optimum. 'magic' solution. I also don't think that drastic, across-the-board SIP orders are politically tolerable.They were in the first months, but we have had close to nine months to develop nuance. In particular, the continued school closures are beyond exasperating.

If the pressure on health systems becomes so severe that drastic SIP is required, you had better demonstrate it to the public. You had also better demonstrate why it has to be imposed on the public as a whole, rather than those segments that are particularly vulnerable. That's what I mean by nuance. 

Biden is going to be infinitely more Presidential than Trump, but he has certainly not demonstrated the kind of charismatic leadership of an FDR or Kennedy. I hope he is going to be a 'lucky' President (such as Clinton was) and that effective vaccines become widely available ASAP. I don't think that the change of regimen is going to save him if he has to fall back to measures that the public perceives as too drastic, or thoughtlessly imposed - particularly when party figureheads demonstrate their unwillingness to live with the discipline they expect from others.