Softball

[BobK]

Beat Davis today 6-3 with a 4 run 6th inning. 
The team is now 5-2.   

I don't know how good Davis might be but in John's last year we lost at Davis. 

[d4cohn]

UC Davis went 15-35 last season, with an RPI of 205. RPI rankings probably won't be released for this season until conference play starts.

[BobK]

Thanks for the info.  Post more 😀

[d4cohn]

Thanks Bob. I think I only have a little ways to go to reach the number of posts that you have made on this board. :)

[Phogge]

I think Bobbbbbbbb is the clubhouse leader in posts on TOS.

[BobK]

Diarrhea of the fingers

On softball now 5-2 and next in a very tough tournament I hold no illusions.  But I'm a fan and will remain upbeat.  And post away.

[Mick]

Beat Davis today 6-3 with a 4 run 6th inning. 
The team is now 5-2.   

I don't know how good Davis might be but in John's last year we lost at Davis.

In John's last year, Stanford beat Davis twice and didn't lose.  Scores were 10-1 in five innings at Davis on 2/18/14 and 3-2 on 3/9/14 at Stanford.  Rittman was career 14-2 against Davis, so you were probably referring to either the 2-1 Road loss in 2012 or the 5-4 road loss in 2013.

The current coach is 2-1 against Davis.

[BobK]

Getting old Mick.  It was John's last year I was there. Glad it was a win.
My last journey was a loss

[JJJ]

If I'm deciphering the mess on the sidearm sports website correctly, we are up 16-2 vs UC Santa Barbara in the 4th inning after having lost to Omaha 3-2 earlier today.  Although Sidearm sports shows we're currently playing Omaha...

[BobK]

Yep. Not a mess leading 16-2 though 😀

[JJJ]

And that's the final score, 16-2. Not a mess (except maybe if I were trying to keep the scorebook accurate). 6-3 record heading into Sunday!

[fullmetal]

Is this a vote of confidence for Hanson?  I remember earlier posts saying that she was struggling too much for us to be confident in her potential to turn this team around.  But it could have also been aftershocks from the team's fracturing. 

[d4cohn]

Here is a list of softball's 2017 non-conference opponents, along with a list of their 2016 records and RPI, as well as the game outcome:

Team, Record, RPI, Outcome
UTEP , 23-32, 151, Win
Creighton, 25-22, 177, Win
Western Michigan, 22-28, 180, Win
Purdue, 27-28, 86, Win
San Diego, 22-29, 200, Loss
Fresno St., 42-12-1, 21, Loss
UC Davis, 15-35, 205,  Win
Omaha, 30-29, 172, Loss
UC Santa Barbara, 28-28, 126, Win
Pacific, 20-28, 179, Win
Bethune-Cookman, 21-32, 225, ?
Florida St. , 55-10, 5, ?
St. John's, 29-20, 109, ?
San Diego State, 30-22, 63, ?
Purdue, 27-28, 86, ?
Drake, 30-24, 125, ?
Jacksonville, 28-30, 101, ?
Jacksonville, 28-30, 101, ?
Alabama, 51-14, 6, ?
Drake, 30-24, 125, ?
UC Davis, 15-35, 205, ?
Grand Canyon, 35-15, 55, ?
Connecticut, 19-33, 171, ?
Lehigh, 36-16, 77, ?
Cal Poly, 27-23, 80, ?
Lehigh, 36-16, 77, ?

For perspective, no Pac-12 team (other than us) finished with an RPI below 38 last year. I apologize if the list above is hard to follow, but to summarize, we have only one win over a team that finished in the RPI Top 100 last season, only one win over a team with a winning record last season, and the one team on our schedule so far with an RPI comparable to teams we will face in Pac-12 play and who could contend in the Pac-12 (Fresno St.), we got annihilated 24-8 in five innings. The games to watch in the non-conference as far as progress, for me, will be Alabama and Florida St; they are the only two remaining teams in the non-conference that compare to Pac-12 competition. However, in previous years under Coach Hanson, we have beaten Alabama in 2015 and Missouri in 2016 in the non-conference only to finish a combined 2-46 in Pac-12 play. As such, for me, Pac-12 play will be the best indication of the state of the program.

Also, Coach Hanson last year had an All-American first baseman, a catcher that had played for the U.S. national team, among other great players, with a team that was not divided like the 2015 team was, and still went 0-24 in conference play.

[winflop]

Is this a vote of confidence for Hanson?  I remember earlier posts saying that she was struggling too much for us to be confident in her potential to turn this team around.  But it could have also been aftershocks from the team's fracturing.

Signs are pointing up but in my mind the only thing she can do this year is earn the right to be the coach next year, unless the team does something crazy like go to the CWS (final 8)

[BobK]

The recovery will be long. The glory days of being close to or making the World Series is maybe in the future.  But at least several years away
Losing two World Series pitchers was a killer.  World Series for their new schools. 

Keep in mind our first 4? Choices for Head coach said no. 

[cardfan77]

The recovery will be long. The glory days of being close to or making the World Series is maybe in the future.  But at least several years away
Losing two World Series pitchers was a killer.  World Series for their new schools. 

Keep in mind our first 4? Choices for Head coach said no.

Make that 3 - Stevens, Schreyer and Hoover.  Of course, Stevens transferred prior to Hanson.  Losing Hoover was major.

What record will Hanson need to retain her job?

[BobK]

I left off Stevens as the subject was Hanson. 

How many wins? See my previous post

[d4cohn]

The recovery will be long. The glory days of being close to or making the World Series is maybe in the future.  But at least several years away

To echo Bob's point, I think an important point in this discussion is what one's expectations are. In the Pac-12 conference for softball, I argue that a NCAA tournament berth is a baseline goal. In the last five years (though this trend holds going farther back), at least the majority of conference teams have made the NCAA tournament (2012: 8 out 9 teams qualified, 2013: 8 out of 9 teams qualified, 2014: 5 out of 9 teams qualified, 2015: 7 out of 9 teams qualified, 2016: 8 out of 9 teams qualified). As such, mediocre and even bad Pac-12 teams, with reasonable strengths of schedules, have still qualified for the NCAA tournament.

Building off of my previous post, I would argue that on the basis of our soft non-conference schedule alone, that an NCAA tournament berth is going to be an uphill climb; barring a stronger showing in Pac-12 play (i.e. 8-10+ conference wins), we won't be able to pick up enough quality wins to raise our RPI and SOS high enough to build a competitive tournament resume. There is also no conference tournament in Pac-12 softball, so NCAA berths for Pac-12 teams are based on the regular season alone.

Therefore, it is very possible that this staff will miss the tournament for the third straight year to start their tenure, in a conference in which just about every team makes the tournament by default.

Finally, on the point of a timeframe, I would point to Utah as a case study. In 2012, Utah entered the Pac-12 from the Mountain West Conference, which is a much lower conference for softball than the Pac-12. As such, Utah was an overmatched squad needing to significantly upgrade its talent and depth to compete in the Pac-12 (I would argue Coach Hanson has had much more talent than Utah did, but I digress). Nevertheless, in their third year in the conference, Utah made the NCAA tournament, and now is among the upper echelon of teams in the Pac-12.

I don't expect Coach Hanson to make the World Series. However, I do expect, at this point in the program building, the team to at least contend for an NCAA tournament berth. Nevertheless, I think this non-conference schedule is an indication that the team is not close to contending.

Regardless of Bernard's handling of Coach Rittman's situation and Coach Hanson's hiring, the players deserve to have a staff that allows them to develop as players and contend. Echoing fullmetal's question from earlier in the thread, I am just not confident that this staff is that group.

[Mick]

[quote author=BobK link=topic=16598.msg188887#msg188887 date=1487630086]
The recovery will be long. The glory days of being close to or making the World Series is maybe in the future.  But at least several years away

Regardless of Bernard's handling of Coach Rittman's situation and Coach Hanson's hiring, the players deserve to have a staff that allows them to develop as players and contend. Echoing fullmetal's question from earlier in the thread, I am just not confident that this staff is that group.
[/quote]

Rittman's predecessor never had a winning season.  Rittman's first season (1997) the team finished 31-27-1, 5th in the Pac-10 at 10-18.  His second season his team was 41-18, 3rd in the Pac-10 at 17-11 and it was his first of 16 consecutive NCAA postseason qualifying seasons.

16 consecutive postseasons.  16 of 18.  Then you get taken out and shot through the head. 

In his third season, he had 45 wins.  Let's see how Teevens Rachel does.

[BobK]

Sandy started the program in the 90s playing across the street from
Stanford Mall.

Mick that's so not comparable.