02-27-2020, 10:19 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020, 11:14 AM by OutsiderFan.)
Given we are on the verge of an unprecedented public health crisis, I hope the mods don't shut this down because it is too "controversial" to discuss here, but information is power, and I have some that I feel will help people at least a little.
Let me preface by making clear I'm not a doctor or scientist, though I have a "scientific mind" if that makes sense. I've been following the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that leads to Covid-19, for over a month, pretty closely.
First some facts based on the best available scientific and medical data, much not peer-reviewed, but still useful:
NOT Flu
- The flu has a Rate of Transmission (Ro - "R naught) of about 1, meaning basically 1-1 spread that doesn't grow much.
- Covid-19 has a Ro of at least 2.5 and probably closer to 5 or 6, meaning geometric spread.
- The virus transmits from people not showing symptoms, to others, and can incubate for up to 24 days before symptoms show.
- Spreads in multiple ways, including surfaces, water droplets (sneeze), and via air (think what you see floating in room with sun beam).
- Shows signs of being able to live 9 days on surfaces while flu is up to 48 hours.
- The complication rate (pneumonia/lung infection) is about 20% of those diagnosed with Covid-19.
- Complication requires oxygen, ventilator and on average 8-day hospital stay.
- Death rate ~ 2% based on known data; flu is .1% = this is 10x-20x more deadly than flu.
- Re-infection is occurring.
- Some research shows second infection worse, because immune system overreacts and attacks body, could complicate vaccine development.
Other items to think about
- Health workers at severe risk; patients visit with virus showing no symptoms, spread to care givers, they see new patients, who transmit to others.
- Chinese doctor who blew whistle on virus (and died) was an Ophthalmologist.
- He didn't have Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to see patients who had the virus but not showing symptoms, because why would he?
- South Korea has tested 10's of thousands and has nearly 2,000 cases.
- U.S. has tested less than 500; it's more than likely spreading in U.S. and CA in particular with nobody knowing.
- Flu cases in U.S. may actually be Covid-19 because CDC has had inadequate Covid-19 testing requirements.
- Masks really do not help much.
- Stock up on food and water - just in case.
- According to my insurance company (Anthem), someone has to declare a "national health emergency" before they will cover testing (not require out of pocket payment that creates economic incentive to avoid testing) for a virus. When asked who, Anthem rep said "we don't know."
Personal Anecdote
I'm living in CT now and have a friend who is a nurse who specializes in infection control. He went to a meeting yesterday with a medical director for a local hospital he has known and respected for years. Friend was told of a Covid-19 case confirmed in New Haven on Wednesday morning, Feb. 26. The reason I bring this up is because this person was not reported as part of official CDC U.S. case count on Wednesday. It seems to be proof the U.S. numbers are not accurate. Everyone has probably heard about the UC Davis case now being attributed to community spread (nobody knows how the person got infected), but I believe this New Haven example is also such a case, and this thing is already spreading significantly in the U.S., undetected, maybe even in those who are thought to just have the flu.
This is the best information I have to provide. I hope you all appreciate it and take appropriate measures to protect yourself, your families, and communities.
Let me preface by making clear I'm not a doctor or scientist, though I have a "scientific mind" if that makes sense. I've been following the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that leads to Covid-19, for over a month, pretty closely.
First some facts based on the best available scientific and medical data, much not peer-reviewed, but still useful:
NOT Flu
- The flu has a Rate of Transmission (Ro - "R naught) of about 1, meaning basically 1-1 spread that doesn't grow much.
- Covid-19 has a Ro of at least 2.5 and probably closer to 5 or 6, meaning geometric spread.
- The virus transmits from people not showing symptoms, to others, and can incubate for up to 24 days before symptoms show.
- Spreads in multiple ways, including surfaces, water droplets (sneeze), and via air (think what you see floating in room with sun beam).
- Shows signs of being able to live 9 days on surfaces while flu is up to 48 hours.
- The complication rate (pneumonia/lung infection) is about 20% of those diagnosed with Covid-19.
- Complication requires oxygen, ventilator and on average 8-day hospital stay.
- Death rate ~ 2% based on known data; flu is .1% = this is 10x-20x more deadly than flu.
- Re-infection is occurring.
- Some research shows second infection worse, because immune system overreacts and attacks body, could complicate vaccine development.
Other items to think about
- Health workers at severe risk; patients visit with virus showing no symptoms, spread to care givers, they see new patients, who transmit to others.
- Chinese doctor who blew whistle on virus (and died) was an Ophthalmologist.
- He didn't have Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to see patients who had the virus but not showing symptoms, because why would he?
- South Korea has tested 10's of thousands and has nearly 2,000 cases.
- U.S. has tested less than 500; it's more than likely spreading in U.S. and CA in particular with nobody knowing.
- Flu cases in U.S. may actually be Covid-19 because CDC has had inadequate Covid-19 testing requirements.
- Masks really do not help much.
- Stock up on food and water - just in case.
- According to my insurance company (Anthem), someone has to declare a "national health emergency" before they will cover testing (not require out of pocket payment that creates economic incentive to avoid testing) for a virus. When asked who, Anthem rep said "we don't know."
Personal Anecdote
I'm living in CT now and have a friend who is a nurse who specializes in infection control. He went to a meeting yesterday with a medical director for a local hospital he has known and respected for years. Friend was told of a Covid-19 case confirmed in New Haven on Wednesday morning, Feb. 26. The reason I bring this up is because this person was not reported as part of official CDC U.S. case count on Wednesday. It seems to be proof the U.S. numbers are not accurate. Everyone has probably heard about the UC Davis case now being attributed to community spread (nobody knows how the person got infected), but I believe this New Haven example is also such a case, and this thing is already spreading significantly in the U.S., undetected, maybe even in those who are thought to just have the flu.
This is the best information I have to provide. I hope you all appreciate it and take appropriate measures to protect yourself, your families, and communities.