Cases in Santa Clara County (SCC) grew exponentially for 6 weeks beginning the 2nd week of June. July 12-18 had 3 days higher than any day from a previous week. The previous week had 5 days higher than any day from a previous week. Etc. July 12-18 was the sixth week of rising case numbers that had all the signs of exponential growth.
If I told you that in the next week (July 19-25), SCC had 56% fewer cases than in the preceding week (dropped from 1636 during July 12-18 to 719 during July 19-25), you might think it was a miracle. You might say "Open the bars and let's drink to that." or "Open the churches and let's praise God." I'm sure some will say that.
But, before you toast the rapid change in numbers, or sing a hymn of thanksgiving, take a look at the testing figures: SCC had 56% fewer tests in the week of July 19-25 than the previous week (dropped from 42,826 to 18,736).
56% fewer cases and 56% fewer tests. Coincidence? I think not.
On July 23, California changed the rules for whose tests can get processed. This has affected the number of tests of SCC residents that can be processed.
I think pretty obviously, this change, while it may be necessary for fast & equitable testing in the state or country, has caused probably 900 or more cases of COVID-19 to be missed in this past week alone.
In some other county, one might try to say that maybe this decrease was a result of the closing of certain businesses in the middle of the prior week (July 15, as applied to SCC). Other than some businesses that were open for two days (July 13 & 14), SCC already had those businesses closed. So there was no real effect. (Indeed if there were any effect, it would be that those two days would have INCREASED cases during the week when cases plummeted, due to incubation times.)
The exponential growth SCC had for 6 weeks probably didn't go away. I suspect those missing cases are in the community and possibly causing R to rise.
I think this has been a disaster for SCC, at least. I think it also highlights the problem of inadequate testing virtually everywhere in the US.
You will see that the % positive rate dropped simultaneously with this change in the rules. That suggests to me that the disease rate in those who can't get the test now is higher than those that can. I hope the county can look at the preceding week's testing and identify if the new rules had been in place, would the % positive rate been lower or not? (By the way, SCC has been reporting incorrect 7-day % positive numbers. I sent a note to them Thursday night showing how their numbers are not calculated as the state specifies. (They were averaging the daily % positive values.))
In mid-June, President Trump reportedly joked, "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, actually." I find it ironic that California is proving him right.
[edited 7/31 8PM. Previously had 54% for both reductions. I meant 56% for both, and have corrected it.]
If I told you that in the next week (July 19-25), SCC had 56% fewer cases than in the preceding week (dropped from 1636 during July 12-18 to 719 during July 19-25), you might think it was a miracle. You might say "Open the bars and let's drink to that." or "Open the churches and let's praise God." I'm sure some will say that.
But, before you toast the rapid change in numbers, or sing a hymn of thanksgiving, take a look at the testing figures: SCC had 56% fewer tests in the week of July 19-25 than the previous week (dropped from 42,826 to 18,736).
56% fewer cases and 56% fewer tests. Coincidence? I think not.
On July 23, California changed the rules for whose tests can get processed. This has affected the number of tests of SCC residents that can be processed.
I think pretty obviously, this change, while it may be necessary for fast & equitable testing in the state or country, has caused probably 900 or more cases of COVID-19 to be missed in this past week alone.
In some other county, one might try to say that maybe this decrease was a result of the closing of certain businesses in the middle of the prior week (July 15, as applied to SCC). Other than some businesses that were open for two days (July 13 & 14), SCC already had those businesses closed. So there was no real effect. (Indeed if there were any effect, it would be that those two days would have INCREASED cases during the week when cases plummeted, due to incubation times.)
The exponential growth SCC had for 6 weeks probably didn't go away. I suspect those missing cases are in the community and possibly causing R to rise.
I think this has been a disaster for SCC, at least. I think it also highlights the problem of inadequate testing virtually everywhere in the US.
You will see that the % positive rate dropped simultaneously with this change in the rules. That suggests to me that the disease rate in those who can't get the test now is higher than those that can. I hope the county can look at the preceding week's testing and identify if the new rules had been in place, would the % positive rate been lower or not? (By the way, SCC has been reporting incorrect 7-day % positive numbers. I sent a note to them Thursday night showing how their numbers are not calculated as the state specifies. (They were averaging the daily % positive values.))
In mid-June, President Trump reportedly joked, "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, actually." I find it ironic that California is proving him right.
[edited 7/31 8PM. Previously had 54% for both reductions. I meant 56% for both, and have corrected it.]