We're #1 !!!

[M T]

...no one is going to sacrifice their own activities if they don't see others also taking steps to follow guidelines.

So, if each of us "others" shows we're taking steps, maybe a few more will choose to sacrifice.  
Better that than more to be sacrificed to the disease.

Unfortunately, there is little coverage on the news of us staying home, only coverage of those in public.

[Goose]

So, if each of us "others" shows we're taking steps, maybe a few more will choose to sacrifice.  
Better that than more to be sacrificed to the disease.

Nice thought, but I have seen little to no evidence it is true. It seems to me everybody has decided what they are willing to do and for how long. Once those limits are reached, no more "sacrifice". If people got some pushback from their neighbors, MAYBE it would help, but since that isn't happening I don't see the "good example" working.

[magnus]

So, if each of us "others" shows we're taking steps, maybe a few more will choose to sacrifice.  
Better that than more to be sacrificed to the disease.

Nice thought, but I have seen little to no evidence it is true. It seems to me everybody has decided what they are willing to do and for how long. Once those limits are reached, no more "sacrifice". If people got some pushback from their neighbors, MAYBE it would help, but since that isn't happening I don't see the "good example" working.

Habits (not masking) are hard to break.  It takes extra effort to break them, but almost no effort at all to revert.

[Mick]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...atherings/

Here's the problem in a nutshell:

But public health officials nationwide say case investigations are increasingly leading them to small, private social gatherings. This behind-doors transmission trend reflects pandemic fatigue and widening social bubbles, experts say — and is particularly insidious because it is so difficult to police and likely to increase as temperatures drop and holidays approach.

And honestly, this is the sort of thing that is going to be most difficult to try to prevent.  It's one thing to close bars and restaurants.  It's another to restrict people from having friends over.  The best approach is probably going to be educating people and doing a public awareness campaign and hoping for the best.  If you try to issue an public health edict, it will go over like a lead balloon.

BC

Small, private social gatherings definitely don't help.  But these are probably worse:

https://www.nola.com/gambit/news/the_lat.../1/gallery

[BostonCard]

You know what else won't help...

Even if it can be made safe, and even if it has the blessing of the Congressional Physician, this is f-ing stupid.

The average family who is going to be told in short order that they can't have Thanksgiving with anyone else is going to look at this and be pissed that, yet again, there seems to be one set of rules for Congress and one set of rules for everyone else.

BC

[BostonCard]

Another sobering update:

AT this pace, we will break 200,000 cases a day by next week.  Another record in hospitalizations; we're not far from 10% of all hospital beds in the country filled with COVID-19 cases.

BC

[magnus]

You know what else won't help...

Even if it can be made safe, and even if it has the blessing of the Congressional Physician, this is f-ing stupid.

The average family who is going to be told in short order that they can't have Thanksgiving with anyone else is going to look at this and be pissed that, yet again, there seems to be one set of rules for Congress and one set of rules for everyone else.

BC

Dinner cancelled. 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-...-democrats

[Mick]

You know what else won't help...
The average family who is going to be told in short order that they can't have Thanksgiving with anyone else is going to look at this and be pissed that, yet again, there seems to be one set of rules for Congress and one set of rules for everyone else.

BC

Seems to be one set of rules for Congress and one set of rules for everyone else.  That is literally true:

https://archives-democrats-rules.house.g...coc2ai.htm

As bad as Orange's approval rating is, his approval rating has been consistently higher than that of Congress, currently at 19%:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx

[BostonCard]

I expect we will start seeing 2000 deaths a day (the most since the spring peak) by next week. We will hit 80,000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 by later this week.  Nearly 10% of tests are positive, which means we are likely missing even more cases.

There are about 100,000 ICU beds in the country, and 13,000 of them are occupied with COVID-19 patients.

I keep waiting for case counts to slow down, which would be an indication that things are starting to trend in the right direction.  however, they keep rising.

BC

[82 Card]

Worldometers.info has today's body count only slightly below 2k. They are showing 173,632 new cases and 1,956 deaths. These numbers will probably go up tomorrow when they fill in the Nebraska data for today.

The 7 day average for new cases is just under 165k. Using the projection methodology posted by Magnus last week (7 day average of new cases x 1.8% gives expected deaths in 22 days), we can expect to have about 2,970 deaths per day around Dec. 10. Might as well round that to 3k. If this continues in it's current trajectory, we could lose close to 100k in just December. That's probably wrong, but in which direction?

[BostonCard]

Today's Worldometer shows >2000 deaths, the first time it has breached 2000 deaths since early May.

COVIDtracker's data is at 1900 again, but we broke 80,000 hospitalized patients.

BC

[dabigv13]

No sign of slowdown in SoCal. Still climbing a steep curve. Hospitalized patients are now higher than the spring peak, but not as high as summer peak. ICU and vent usage not up to that level yet but probably in 7-10 days. Another week after that and we will likely be surpassing the summer peak.

[Goose]

No sign of slowdown in SoCal. Still climbing a steep curve. Hospitalized patients are now higher than the spring peak, but not as high as summer peak. ICU and vent usage not up to that level yet but probably in 7-10 days. Another week after that and we will likely be surpassing the summer peak.

I just hope that 3 weeks from now we are not seeing a further positive inflection from Thanksgiving travel/dinners. If we just keep going on our current trajectory, it will be bad enough. If it gets even steeper, I hate to think what the results will be.

[BostonCard]

Today's update is more of the same.  Record number of new cases (almost 200,000) and hospitalizations.  More than 1800 deaths for the third consecutive days.  I feel like I did in March, watching cases and deaths rise almost every day, and the scariest feeling was not knowing when we were going to peak and start to go down.

R(t) is estimated at > 1 in 48 states and DC (all except Mississippi and SD)

https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/detail...58&src=ctp

REmember, what we are seeing today in terms of cases reflects infections that happened last week.  Even if we took steps to reverse it today, we wouldn't see reductions in cases until next week, a decline in hospitalizations until the week after, and a decline in deaths until mid-December.

BC

[chrisk]

How Norway and Finland are outperforming Sweden and the Rest of the West:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-and...sZfJEoLlXg