10-31-2020, 09:17 AM

From B. Douglas Bernheim in the Department of Economics. Notably this is only from June 20 to September 22.

https://t.co/kwqQ8R5mVW?amp=1

Quote:We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying

the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion

within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each

event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that

capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including

demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total

of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these

variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that

they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents.

Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately

resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-

specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths

(not necessarily among attendees).

https://t.co/kwqQ8R5mVW?amp=1