Threats to public health officials

[oldalum]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...might-too/



I trust large public polling over your anecdotal experiences. Many Trump voters believe there was fraud. Millions. Not healthy for our government.

Was there fraud in the election. I believe there was, but I also believe it was minuscule and not necessarily all pro-Biden. Probably a few people who were not technically eligible to vote did so. No effect on the final results.

The link you cite says little about the election "fraud". It makes an argument that the birther conspiracy hung on, so the election fraud conspiracy will too. Not actually relevant to the state of the election fraud conspiracy at the moment, because the article just assumes it exists. The article does have a link to
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...SKBN27Y1AJ
which does talk about the election and how many people are "concerned". I think that link is the poll to which you refer, as I could find no other relevant poll in the 538 article. I am including a quote from that link here:

The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump’s open defiance of Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public’s confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans.
Altogether, 73% of those polled agreed that Biden won the election while 5% thought Trump won. But when asked specifically whether Biden had “rightfully won,” Republicans showed they were suspicious about how Biden’s victory was obtained.
Fifty-two percent of Republicans said that Trump “rightfully won,” while only 29% said that Biden had rightfully won.
Asked why, Republicans were much more concerned than others that state vote counters had tipped the result toward Biden: 68% of Republicans said they were concerned that the election was “rigged,” while only 16% of Democrats and one-third of independents were similarly worried.

Note that the date of this poll was November 13-17. Note also that it says "concerned" that the election was "rigged", not believed or were certain there was fraud. This was while Trump was tweeting there was fraud and that his lawyers were going to prove it. As we all know, that didn't happen. Back then, it could have been true. Being "concerned" wasn't irrational. By now, the idea has been pretty much debunked. I strongly suspect if the poll was current the data would be much different. It is hard to remain "concerned" there was fraud when in no case has it been found. 16% of Democrats and 33% of independents were "concerned" too, so it isn't totally a political preference that drives "concern". Some of those independents were Trump voters. By now, I would bet the 68% is probably down in the 30% region and dropping. Note also that the 68% of Republicans who were concerned is greater than the 52% who at the time said Trump had actually won, so concern != believe.

I am sure there will be a residue of people who believe the election was not on the up and up, just like you occasionally hear somebody say Gore won. However, I don't think it will be many. The recounts and lawsuits being dismissed for lack of any evidence will tend to do that.

wow Goose that sure took a lot of 'splainin', and a lot of confidence in many Trump voters to reject conspiracy theories regarding the lawsuits and recounts (the courts are rigged, the election officials are conspiring, the Dominion software is rigged, etc.) when it seems to me they have shown no propensity at all to reject conspiracy theories about anything on the basis of evidence or lack thereof (can't prove a negative). How about this finding from the Economist's poll, conducted Nov 15-17:

"Some 88% of people who voted for Trump earlier this month falsely believe Biden did not legitimately win the election, compared to just 2% of Biden voters, The Economist and YouGov found in a poll released Thursday."

Forbes article with link to poll

If you think the majority of these 63+ million Trump voters have already changed or will change their minds about the legitimacy of Biden's election, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that until more data is obtained a few months from now.

BTW, to tie back to the topic, the question of legitimacy could be important for the effectiveness of the Biden team's management of the pandemic.

[Goose]

If you think the majority of these 63+ million Trump voters have already changed or will change their minds about the legitimacy of Biden's election, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that until more data is obtained a few months from now.

That works for me.

[ATLcardinal]

Hmmm, believe it or not I didn't believe my statement that the majority of Trump voters think the election was rigged and Trump actually won was all that controversial.  I think most of you don't live in Georgia (or Idaho, based on a conversation I had with a friend in Idaho last night).  Our neighbors are flatly saying that the election was rigged and Trump won.  Maybe I should correct my statement and add 'rightfully', i.e. "the election was rigged and Trump rightfully won" because they are aware of the actual published vote numbers and the ongoing certifications.  They just believe the whole thing was a fraud, Trump received more legal votes and therefore rightfully won the election.  Interpret that as you will, my anecdotal experience is no better than anyone else's anecdotal experience (I think polling backs me up, for what little polls may be worth these days).  Maybe/probably this will fade over time, it should, but I think it is a safe prediction that Trump will use his platform to try to keep this viewpoint alive.

[Mick]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...might-too/



I trust large public polling over your anecdotal experiences. Many Trump voters believe there was fraud. Millions. Not healthy for our government.

Was there fraud in the election. I believe there was, but I also believe it was minuscule and not necessarily all pro-Biden. Probably a few people who were not technically eligible to vote did so. No effect on the final results.

The link you cite says little about the election "fraud". It makes an argument that the birther conspiracy hung on, so the election fraud conspiracy will too. Not actually relevant to the state of the election fraud conspiracy at the moment, because the article just assumes it exists. The article does have a link to
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...SKBN27Y1AJ
which does talk about the election and how many people are "concerned". I think that link is the poll to which you refer, as I could find no other relevant poll in the 538 article. I am including a quote from that link here:

The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump’s open defiance of Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public’s confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans.
Altogether, 73% of those polled agreed that Biden won the election while 5% thought Trump won. But when asked specifically whether Biden had “rightfully won,” Republicans showed they were suspicious about how Biden’s victory was obtained.
Fifty-two percent of Republicans said that Trump “rightfully won,” while only 29% said that Biden had rightfully won.
Asked why, Republicans were much more concerned than others that state vote counters had tipped the result toward Biden: 68% of Republicans said they were concerned that the election was “rigged,” while only 16% of Democrats and one-third of independents were similarly worried.

Note that the date of this poll was November 13-17. Note also that it says "concerned" that the election was "rigged", not believed or were certain there was fraud. This was while Trump was tweeting there was fraud and that his lawyers were going to prove it. As we all know, that didn't happen. Back then, it could have been true. Being "concerned" wasn't irrational. By now, the idea has been pretty much debunked. I strongly suspect if the poll was current the data would be much different. It is hard to remain "concerned" there was fraud when in no case has it been found. 16% of Democrats and 33% of independents were "concerned" too, so it isn't totally a political preference that drives "concern". Some of those independents were Trump voters. By now, I would bet the 68% is probably down in the 30% region and dropping. Note also that the 68% of Republicans who were concerned is greater than the 52% who at the time said Trump had actually won, so concern != believe.

I am sure there will be a residue of people who believe the election was not on the up and up, just like you occasionally hear somebody say Gore won. However, I don't think it will be many. The recounts and lawsuits being dismissed for lack of any evidence will tend to do that.

wow Goose that sure took a lot of 'splainin', and a lot of confidence in many Trump voters to reject conspiracy theories regarding the lawsuits and recounts (the courts are rigged, the election officials are conspiring, the Dominion software is rigged, etc.) when it seems to me they have shown no propensity at all to reject conspiracy theories about anything on the basis of evidence or lack thereof (can't prove a negative). How about this finding from the Economist's poll, conducted Nov 15-17:

"Some 88% of people who voted for Trump earlier this month falsely believe Biden did not legitimately win the election, compared to just 2% of Biden voters, The Economist and YouGov found in a poll released Thursday."

Forbes article with link to poll

If you think the majority of these 63+ million Trump voters have already changed or will change their minds about the legitimacy of Biden's election, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that until more data is obtained a few months from now.

BTW, to tie back to the topic, the question of legitimacy could be important for the effectiveness of the Biden team's management of the pandemic.

Hillary Clinton called Trump an illegitimate president in 2016.  So did Jimmy Carter.  In an ABC poll, one-third of Clinton's supporters claimed that Trump's win in 2016 was illegitimate.  18% of all Americans believed it was illegitimate.  Hillary has never admitted or accepted Trump's win as legitimate.  Trump won't recognize Biden's win as legitimate either.

I'm waiting for the Lefties to admit the parallels.  I suspect that I'll have a rather long wait...

[JustAnotherFan]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...might-too/



I trust large public polling over your anecdotal experiences. Many Trump voters believe there was fraud. Millions. Not healthy for our government.

Was there fraud in the election. I believe there was, but I also believe it was minuscule and not necessarily all pro-Biden. Probably a few people who were not technically eligible to vote did so. No effect on the final results.

The link you cite says little about the election "fraud". It makes an argument that the birther conspiracy hung on, so the election fraud conspiracy will too. Not actually relevant to the state of the election fraud conspiracy at the moment, because the article just assumes it exists. The article does have a link to
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...SKBN27Y1AJ
which does talk about the election and how many people are "concerned". I think that link is the poll to which you refer, as I could find no other relevant poll in the 538 article. I am including a quote from that link here:

The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump’s open defiance of Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public’s confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans.
Altogether, 73% of those polled agreed that Biden won the election while 5% thought Trump won. But when asked specifically whether Biden had “rightfully won,” Republicans showed they were suspicious about how Biden’s victory was obtained.
Fifty-two percent of Republicans said that Trump “rightfully won,” while only 29% said that Biden had rightfully won.
Asked why, Republicans were much more concerned than others that state vote counters had tipped the result toward Biden: 68% of Republicans said they were concerned that the election was “rigged,” while only 16% of Democrats and one-third of independents were similarly worried.

Note that the date of this poll was November 13-17. Note also that it says "concerned" that the election was "rigged", not believed or were certain there was fraud. This was while Trump was tweeting there was fraud and that his lawyers were going to prove it. As we all know, that didn't happen. Back then, it could have been true. Being "concerned" wasn't irrational. By now, the idea has been pretty much debunked. I strongly suspect if the poll was current the data would be much different. It is hard to remain "concerned" there was fraud when in no case has it been found. 16% of Democrats and 33% of independents were "concerned" too, so it isn't totally a political preference that drives "concern". Some of those independents were Trump voters. By now, I would bet the 68% is probably down in the 30% region and dropping. Note also that the 68% of Republicans who were concerned is greater than the 52% who at the time said Trump had actually won, so concern != believe.

I am sure there will be a residue of people who believe the election was not on the up and up, just like you occasionally hear somebody say Gore won. However, I don't think it will be many. The recounts and lawsuits being dismissed for lack of any evidence will tend to do that.

wow Goose that sure took a lot of 'splainin', and a lot of confidence in many Trump voters to reject conspiracy theories regarding the lawsuits and recounts (the courts are rigged, the election officials are conspiring, the Dominion software is rigged, etc.) when it seems to me they have shown no propensity at all to reject conspiracy theories about anything on the basis of evidence or lack thereof (can't prove a negative). How about this finding from the Economist's poll, conducted Nov 15-17:

"Some 88% of people who voted for Trump earlier this month falsely believe Biden did not legitimately win the election, compared to just 2% of Biden voters, The Economist and YouGov found in a poll released Thursday."

Forbes article with link to poll

If you think the majority of these 63+ million Trump voters have already changed or will change their minds about the legitimacy of Biden's election, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that until more data is obtained a few months from now.

BTW, to tie back to the topic, the question of legitimacy could be important for the effectiveness of the Biden team's management of the pandemic.

Hillary Clinton called Trump an illegitimate president in 2016.  So did Jimmy Carter.  In an ABC poll, one-third of Clinton's supporters claimed that Trump's win in 2016 was illegitimate.  18% of all Americans believed it was illegitimate.  Hillary has never admitted or accepted Trump's win as legitimate.  Trump won't recognize Biden's win as legitimate either.

I'm waiting for the Lefties to admit the parallels.  I suspect that I'll have a rather long wait...

I wonder if that 1/3rd number for the people who believed Trump's win in 2016 was illegitimate were focused on foreign interference in the election or the fact that he lost the popular vote by 3 million? From a scale perspective the Trumpers are more absurd than the "lefties" on two counts. One, there has been no credible evidence that any foreign entity interfered in support of Biden. Two, Biden beat Trump by over 6 million votes, he didn't lose the popular vote. The parallels are not compelling. 

Also, kind of an aside, but the overwhelming majority of Democrats are not lefties. As AOC rightly said, if it were virtually any other country she and Biden would be in different parties with Biden being in a conservative party. Democrats are center right. Most lefties cannot stand Biden.