Roster decision thread

[BostonCard]

I'm generally in favor of more flexibility for athletes, and I support waiving the transfer rules, but this could be a disaster for Stanford.

BC

[SamuelMcF]

I'm generally in favor of more flexibility for athletes, and I support waiving the transfer rules, but this could be a disaster for Stanford.

BC

I don't anticipate transfers without degrees in hand. Would totally nullify the point of coming to Stanford in the first place.

[old spanish trail]

[quote="BostonCard" pid='302398' dateline='1608510588']
I'm generally in favor of more flexibility for athletes, and I support waiving the transfer rules, but this could be a disaster for Stanford.

BC

I don't anticipate transfers without degrees in hand. Would totally nullify the point of coming to Stanford in the first place.

______________________________________________________

Exactly

[BostonCard]

I'm generally in favor of more flexibility for athletes, and I support waiving the transfer rules, but this could be a disaster for Stanford.

BC

I don't anticipate transfers without degrees in hand. Would totally nullify the point of coming to Stanford in the first place.

Good point; I hope you are right.

BC

[lex24]

I'm generally in favor of more flexibility for athletes, and I support waiving the transfer rules, but this could be a disaster for Stanford.

BC

Agree.

[Mick]

Of those possible six year players I don’t see any NFL prospects. Of the others I expect Dalman (redshirt senior) to go, Mills probably and Fehoko maybe. If Sanders gets his degree does’t he have a service obligation? So breaking in a new QB means a rebuilding year even if he learns to hand off.

Dalman makes sense to me.  I think it would be a of immense proportions mistake for either Mills or Fehoko to go to the NFL.  Both have much upside that needs to be actualized to optimize their NFL draft positions.

[Goose]

Of those possible six year players I don’t see any NFL prospects. Of the others I expect Dalman (redshirt senior) to go, Mills probably and Fehoko maybe. If Sanders gets his degree does’t he have a service obligation? So breaking in a new QB means a rebuilding year even if he learns to hand off.

Dalman makes sense to me.  I think it would be a of immense proportions mistake for either Mills or Fehoko to go to the NFL.  Both have much upside that needs to be actualized to optimize their NFL draft positions.

With Mills it depends a lot on his "current" draft position. If he is already a first round pick, no reason to wait. In fact, later first round may get him a better team than early first round, albeit less money. The challenge is of course to accurately determine what your draft position actually is. Playing next year at Stanford makes sense only if he is not a first round pick. Even then, there is the risk of injury, and with his history that could potentially torpedo getting drafted at all.
Fehoko OTOH should for sure stay at Stanford. He was not even the #1 wide receiver at Stanford when the year started. He has skills, but it would appear he often doesn't concentrate as much as necessary (drops the easy ones). I also am not so sure he is a good route runner. He gets a lot of catches because of physical ability. That won't translate to the NFL. He needs to show he has the technical skills IMHO to get drafted very high.

[82lsju]

With Mills it depends a lot on his "current" draft position. If he is already a first round pick, no reason to wait. In fact, later first round may get him a better team than early first round, albeit less money. The challenge is of course to accurately determine what your draft position actually is. Playing next year at Stanford makes sense only if he is not a first round pick. Even then, there is the risk of injury, and with his history that could potentially torpedo getting drafted at all.

here ranks him the 16th QB

https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.89.
Projected Round (2021): 6-FA.
View Ranking History

12/15/20: Mills finally got to play after missing the start of the Pac-12's season due to a COVID-19 test. He has completed over 65 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards and four scores. He also has 25 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

8/29/20: Mills was in and out of the lineup for Stanford in 2019, but he flashed some potential with the ability to improve as he gains experience. It will be interesting to see how Mills develops as the full-time starter.

and here

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-d...-rankings/

projects 88th pick (8th QB)

[teejers1]

With Mills it depends a lot on his "current" draft position. If he is already a first round pick, no reason to wait. In fact, later first round may get him a better team than early first round, albeit less money. The challenge is of course to accurately determine what your draft position actually is. Playing next year at Stanford makes sense only if he is not a first round pick. Even then, there is the risk of injury, and with his history that could potentially torpedo getting drafted at all.

here ranks him the 16th QB

https://walterfootball.com/draft2021QB.php

Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 214.
Projected 40 Time: 4.89.
Projected Round (2021): 6-FA.
View Ranking History

12/15/20: Mills finally got to play after missing the start of the Pac-12's season due to a COVID-19 test. He has completed over 65 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards and four scores. He also has 25 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

8/29/20: Mills was in and out of the lineup for Stanford in 2019, but he flashed some potential with the ability to improve as he gains experience. It will be interesting to see how Mills develops as the full-time starter.

and here

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-d...-rankings/

projects 88th pick (8th QB)

I'd love it if Mills stayed at Stanford, obviously.  But no way he falls past the second round.  If so, he will be an absolute steal for a team.

[Goose]

I'd love it if Mills stayed at Stanford, obviously.  But no way he falls past the second round.  If so, he will be an absolute steal for a team.

If he is the 16th ranked QB, he almost certainly falls past the second round. OTOH, it only takes one team to want him and the "rankings" make no difference at all. That is why the decision will be pretty difficult IMHO.

[fullmetal]

This year's QB class is deep.  I don't think Mills should go.

[needle]

The concern is whether Mills can stay healthy. No idea what sort of medical tests the NFL puts aspiring draft picks through.

[lex24]

No idea where Mills goes in the draft. Will they have a combine this year?  Pro days on campus?  Doubt it.  The medical issue will be the big question.  He certainly has the arm skills, pocket presence and mobility to play in the NFL.  I’d love to see the Niners get him.  

I’m just sorry we didn’t get to see more of him. Now I guess it’s McKee’s time.

[Hulk01]

Coming into the UCLA game, Fehoko's two-year stats:
17 games, 45 catches, 910 yards, six touchdowns.

Wilson's:
16 games, 75 catches, 933 yards, six touchdowns

Wedington's:
14 games, 66 catches, 663 yards, one touchdown

[Phogge]

McKee... an off-season of practicing handoffs.

[cardcrimson]

This year's QB class is deep.  I don't think Mills should go.

Thought I read on another thread (I think the one stating Mills is NFL ready) that this QB class was weak. I didn't think so either, but the poster was a self described authority. . . .

I agree with you, btw.

---

McKee... an off-season of practicing handoffs.

Nice.

[CardinalSagehen]

The way I look at the list of priorities at the beginning of this thread is not so much based on absolute value, but value above replacement.

I agree with Hulk that there may be some recency bias in stating Fehoko's importance relative to others. If not for the UCLA game, we wouldn't be talking about him going to the NFL. Assuming Wedington and/or OSB return for a 5th year, we can mitigate the possible loss of Fehoko in a deep position group - they aren't the same kind of physical specimen that Fehoko is, but they're just as fast (if not faster) and can help stretch the field. 

It would be a much bigger coup if Dalman stayed, which I assume will not happen. Sarell is great, but our plan would be to plug in Hinton, so I wouldn't put him quite as high on the list. DWP and Heimuli are also hard to replace and might stay - I'd put each of them higher on the list.

[lex24]

The way I look at the list of priorities at the beginning of this thread is not so much based on absolute value, but value above replacement.

I agree with Hulk that there may be some recency bias in stating Fehoko's importance relative to others. If not for the UCLA game, we wouldn't be talking about him going to the NFL. Assuming Wedington and/or OSB return for a 5th year, we can mitigate the possible loss of Fehoko in a deep position group - they aren't the same kind of physical specimen that Fehoko is, but they're just as fast (if not faster) and can help stretch the field. 

It would be a much bigger coup if Dalman stayed, which I assume will not happen. Sarell is great, but our plan would be to plug in Hinton, so I wouldn't put him quite as high on the list. DWP and Heimuli are also hard to replace and might stay - I'd put each of them higher on the list.

Keeping as much of the o-line in place as possible is, to me, job one.  I’m assuming Mills is gone.  If the line plays at or above 2020 level, they will be fine offensively.  They have two good RBs in Jones and Peat, the wideout group should be anywhere from good to excellent - assuming OSB, Wedington, Wilson and Fehoko all don’t leave.  Speaking of WR, I like Higgins a lot.  Caught a lot of balls in traffic this year. Humphreys needs to get stronger.  

QB should be interesting.  McKee is obviously talented.  Question is how much of that will be tapped. 

Defensive,  I think will continue to be an issue.

[Phogge]

DWP is much improved but is still raw. He needs to stay and if he continues to develop he may have a future. NFL teams need tons of D linemen. Hinton is a beast, Sarell improved. Late round pick or FA? Dalman is steady, obviously learned from his dad and maybe third or fourth round. With the Niners plugging in guards to play center and probably about to give up on Richburg he could start right away.

Wedington is an ideal slot guy and should stay. Wilson too. Fehoko is married, spent two years on a mission and should listen to the NFL advice people. However I agree that another year would help his development and there are some great receivers in the next draft, including a bunch from the SEC. One of the season’s surprising developments was the emergence of Higgins so Stanford is rich in receivers even if Fehoko leaves. And Farrell is built for the slot.

Heimuli is another mission guy so he’s probably gone. They have two recruits who will be tried at FB but the cupboard is bare on the current roster.

The big problem are the LB’s and the DB’s. Most of the corners can’t cover their grandmother and we know about the safeties. The injured inside guys are crystal and shouldn’t be counted on. Andres Fox looked lost when he got in and the outside is thin with the loss of the other Fox and Reid. Umeroh looked great in limited play in 2019 but never played a 2020 down I think. Huuuuge weakness going forward.

[donkey687]

The way I look at the list of priorities at the beginning of this thread is not so much based on absolute value, but value above replacement.

I agree with Hulk that there may be some recency bias in stating Fehoko's importance relative to others. If not for the UCLA game, we wouldn't be talking about him going to the NFL. Assuming Wedington and/or OSB return for a 5th year, we can mitigate the possible loss of Fehoko in a deep position group - they aren't the same kind of physical specimen that Fehoko is, but they're just as fast (if not faster) and can help stretch the field. 

It would be a much bigger coup if Dalman stayed, which I assume will not happen. Sarell is great, but our plan would be to plug in Hinton, so I wouldn't put him quite as high on the list. DWP and Heimuli are also hard to replace and might stay - I'd put each of them higher on the list.

Yes, I put together the list taking into account replacement value. The WRs were hard to rank as losing 1 or 2 isn't a big deal, but if we lose 3 of them, the 4th becomes very important. Even though Wilson and Wedington had similar productivity, Fehoko's measurables (speed, height and vertical leap) will make him a much higher ranked prospect like JJAW but faster.  I agree that I may have underrated DWP importance on that list, but I think he is a below average DT in the Pac12 and my assumption is that we would plug that position with someone younger that wouldn't be a big step down. However, that may not be correct as we didn't see any younger guys breaking into the rotation this year other than Pakola pre-injury.  Walk-on LaBounty got some snaps against UCLA which isn't a great sign for Phillips who didn't seem to make the traveling roster as a frosh.