• Portal
  • Forum
  • Search
  • Member
  • Misc
    • View New Posts
    • View Today's Posts
    • View Forum Rules
    • Help Docs
Login or Register Hello There, Guest! Please Login or Register to gain Full Access!
Login
Username/Email:
Password: Lost Password?
 

  1. The CardBoard
  2. Emergency
  3. Covid-19
  4. Asymptomatic infections
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Thread Modes
Asymptomatic infections
OutsiderFan
Tech Mogul
******
Posts: 8,286
Threads: 752
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 182
#1
12-29-2020, 10:05 AM
From other thread I just posted in, I saw a SCC Dr. say 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

This seems exceptionally high to me, and really begs the question of how so many people can carry the virus and not develop the disease.  Does anyone here have any answers or insights into what - if any - common denominators have been identified that prevents people from developing the disease?

My instinct tells me it has something to do with blood type because nothing else makes sense. I know someone who just lost smell/taste and was tired with no fever, but that was still considered symptoms.
Find
lex24
Senator
*****
Posts: 2,792
Threads: 207
Joined: Oct 2016
Reputation: 74
#2
12-29-2020, 10:09 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2020, 10:15 AM by lex24.)
(12-29-2020, 10:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  From other thread I just posted in, I saw a SCC Dr. say 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

This seems exceptionally high to me, and really begs the question of how so many people can carry the virus and not develop the disease.  Does anyone here have any answers or insights into what - if any - common denominators have been identified that prevents people from developing the disease?

My instinct tells me it has something to do with blood type because nothing else makes sense. I know someone who just lost smell/taste and was tired with no fever, but that was still considered symptoms.

My instinct tells me the Dr. is wildly and irresponsibly guessing. Why do you assume the Dr is anywhere close to correct? Here is another take:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
Find
BostonCard
24th year senior
*******
Posts: 20,816
Threads: 1,842
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 388
#3
12-29-2020, 11:43 AM
40% asymptomatic infections is in line with previous estimates.

BC
Find
M T
Senator
*****
Posts: 2,558
Threads: 138
Joined: Dec 1969
Reputation: 87
#4
12-29-2020, 01:01 PM
(12-29-2020, 10:09 AM)lex24 Wrote:  
(12-29-2020, 10:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  From other thread I just posted in, I saw a SCC Dr. say 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

This seems exceptionally high to me, and really begs the question of how so many people can carry the virus and not develop the disease.  Does anyone here have any answers or insights into what - if any - common denominators have been identified that prevents people from developing the disease?

My instinct tells me it has something to do with blood type because nothing else makes sense. I know someone who just lost smell/taste and was tired with no fever, but that was still considered symptoms.

My instinct tells me the Dr. is wildly and irresponsibly guessing. Why do you assume the Dr is anywhere close to correct?  Here is another take:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
For those that didn't follow the link, this article (published 12/21; I don't know when it was submitted) primarily summarizes information from other studies:
  • The earlier high estimates of asymptomatic infections has been revised down to 17-20%.
  • About 49% of those that initially report as asymptomatic eventually do get symptoms.
  • There is no test to detect if a person is infectious.
  • Viral load is similar whether or not a person has symptoms (but that doesn't necessarily mean they are equally infectious).
  • The duration of viral shedding is shorter for those that remain asymptomatic.
  • Viral culture studies suggest that people with SARS-CoV-2 can become infectious one to two days before the onset of symptoms and continue to be infectious up to seven days thereafter; viable virus is relatively short lived.
  • Symptomatic and presymptomatic transmission have a greater role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than truly asymptomatic transmission.
  • The transmission rates to contacts within a specific group (secondary attack rate) may be 3-25 times lower for people who are asymptomatic than for those with symptoms.[url=https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851#ref-1][/url]
  • A city-wide prevalence study of almost 10 million people in Wuhan found no evidence of asymptomatic transmission
  • People with a symptom of coughing would seem to be more likely to spread the virus to any contact.
  • People without symptoms are more likely to have more contacts.
Between the 20% asymptomatic cases, and the 49% that are initially asymptomatic but later develop symptoms,  a number of 40% that are initially asymptomatic seems about right.
Find
JustAnotherFan
Dolly
**
Posts: 622
Threads: 60
Joined: Dec 2017
Reputation: 30
#5
12-29-2020, 05:05 PM
(12-29-2020, 01:01 PM)M T Wrote:  
(12-29-2020, 10:09 AM)lex24 Wrote:  
(12-29-2020, 10:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  From other thread I just posted in, I saw a SCC Dr. say 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

This seems exceptionally high to me, and really begs the question of how so many people can carry the virus and not develop the disease.  Does anyone here have any answers or insights into what - if any - common denominators have been identified that prevents people from developing the disease?

My instinct tells me it has something to do with blood type because nothing else makes sense. I know someone who just lost smell/taste and was tired with no fever, but that was still considered symptoms.

My instinct tells me the Dr. is wildly and irresponsibly guessing. Why do you assume the Dr is anywhere close to correct?  Here is another take:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
For those that didn't follow the link, this article (published 12/21; I don't know when it was submitted) primarily summarizes information from other studies:
  • The earlier high estimates of asymptomatic infections has been revised down to 17-20%.
  • About 49% of those that initially report as asymptomatic eventually do get symptoms.
  • There is no test to detect if a person is infectious.
  • Viral load is similar whether or not a person has symptoms (but that doesn't necessarily mean they are equally infectious).
  • The duration of viral shedding is shorter for those that remain asymptomatic.
  • Viral culture studies suggest that people with SARS-CoV-2 can become infectious one to two days before the onset of symptoms and continue to be infectious up to seven days thereafter; viable virus is relatively short lived.
  • Symptomatic and presymptomatic transmission have a greater role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than truly asymptomatic transmission.
  • The transmission rates to contacts within a specific group (secondary attack rate) may be 3-25 times lower for people who are asymptomatic than for those with symptoms.[url=https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851#ref-1][/url]
  • A city-wide prevalence study of almost 10 million people in Wuhan found no evidence of asymptomatic transmission
  • People with a symptom of coughing would seem to be more likely to spread the virus to any contact.
  • People without symptoms are more likely to have more contacts.
Between the 20% asymptomatic cases, and the 49% that are initially asymptomatic but later develop symptoms,  a number of 40% that are initially asymptomatic seems about right.

Thank you, MT.

Posts like this are why we should not close this forum until May.
Find
DocSavage87
Stanford Man or Woman
*
Posts: 126
Threads: 10
Joined: Aug 2011
Reputation: 36
#6
12-30-2020, 07:35 AM
(12-29-2020, 01:01 PM)M T Wrote:  For those that didn't follow the link, this article (published 12/21; I don't know when it was submitted) primarily summarizes information from other studies:
  • The earlier high estimates of asymptomatic infections has been revised down to 17-20%.
  • About 49% of those that initially report as asymptomatic eventually do get symptoms.
  • There is no test to detect if a person is infectious.
  • Viral load is similar whether or not a person has symptoms (but that doesn't necessarily mean they are equally infectious).
  • The duration of viral shedding is shorter for those that remain asymptomatic.
  • Viral culture studies suggest that people with SARS-CoV-2 can become infectious one to two days before the onset of symptoms and continue to be infectious up to seven days thereafter; viable virus is relatively short lived.
  • Symptomatic and presymptomatic transmission have a greater role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than truly asymptomatic transmission.
  • The transmission rates to contacts within a specific group (secondary attack rate) may be 3-25 times lower for people who are asymptomatic than for those with symptoms.[url=https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851#ref-1][/url]
  • A city-wide prevalence study of almost 10 million people in Wuhan found no evidence of asymptomatic transmission
  • People with a symptom of coughing would seem to be more likely to spread the virus to any contact.
  • People without symptoms are more likely to have more contacts.
Between the 20% asymptomatic cases, and the 49% that are initially asymptomatic but later develop symptoms,  a number of 40% that are initially asymptomatic seems about right.

Agree.  I also think there isn't consistent use of terms in reporting between "asymptomatic" and "pre-symptomatic".  Here's an example of a pre-symptomatic case that spread the virus during a gathering despite testing.  Remember that just because you test positive doesn't mean you are free from the virus.  It takes time for test positivity and there's a non-negligible % of false negative results as well.  (We saw a false positive crush any chance we had of winning vs Oregon.)


Find
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »



  • View a Printable Version
  • Subscribe to this thread
Forum Jump:

About Our Community

Welcome to The CardBoard. We are THE community for Stanford sports fans and guests. We include alumni, former athletes, students, and just plain Cardinal crazies, as well as guest fans of Cardinal opponents.

Quick Links



Reach Us

Contact Us  Meet Our team

Powered By MyBB. Crafted by EreeCorp.
Linear Mode
Threaded Mode