WBB: Pac-12 Tourney

[martyup]

It looks as if we will have Oregon, Colorado, and Washington State on our side of the bracket for the Pac-12 tourney.  If we run that gauntlet, we will most likely have to play Arizona or UCLA. That's damned tough prep for the NCAA tourney.

[Lorcan]

The seedings are still up in the air contingent on some matchups this week. As outlined below, some things to keep an eye on. 

1. Stanford (18-2) vs. California (No impact, Arizona is unable to catch Stanford's winning percentage. 
2. Arizona (13-3) vs. Arizona State. Even if the Sun Devils reverse a recent slide and stun the Wildcats, Arizona holds the H2H tiebreaker over UCLA AND has played (and won) more games. 
3. UCLA (11-4) vs. USC (No impact)
4. Oregon (10-6) vs. Oregon State (No impact)

9. Arizona State (5-9) vs. Arizona
10. Utah (4-15) vs. Colorado If Utah loses, and Washington wins, Washington would sneak into the #10 spot. 
11. Washington (3-12) vs. Wazzu
12. (California (1-22) vs. Stanford
____

This is where it begins to get tricky given the cluster of teams in the middle, and the uneven amount of games played so far this season. I'll try to break it down based on results. In this first batch, Colorado beats Utah, Oregon State upsets Oregon, UCLA beats USC, and Washington State beats Washington. You would end up with standings like this:

5. Oregon State (7-6) (.538%) 
6. Colorado (9-8) (.529)
7. Washington State (9-10) (.473)
8. USC (8-10) (.44)

Per Pac-12 "[font="Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif] The won-lost percentage record of the teams in regular season Conference play will determine tournament seedings" So, even though Colorado has WON more games, if they both win this weekend, Oregon State will be seeded higher based on winning percentage. [/font]

This would lead to a bracket as follows: 

1 Stanford vs (8. Southern California vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Oregon State vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. Colorado vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Washington State vs 10 Utah) 

_____ 

On the flip side, let's say, Colorado beat Utah, Oregon beat Oregon State, Washington State won, and USC stunned shorthanded UCLA. 

5. Colorado (9-8) (.529)
6. USC (9-9) (.500) (Note, that in this scenario if, USC loses, they would be an 8 seed at 8-10)
7. Washington State (9-10) (.473) 
8. Oregon State (6-7) (.46)

1 Stanford vs (8. Oregon State vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Colorado vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. USC vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Washington State vs 10 Utah) 


____ 

I mean, it's just so many permutations. Let's run one where Utah sneaks past the Buffaloes, Oregon still wins, Washington State wins, and UCLA wins. 

5. Washington State (9-10) (.473)
6. Colorado (8-9) (.470)
7. Oregon State (6-7) (.46)
8. USC (8-10) (.444)

1 Stanford vs (8. USC vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Washington State vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. Colorado vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Oregon State vs 10 Utah) 


So really, this just goes to show that we're in for a wild last weekend to settle the bracket, and who knows if make up games will be played before the tournament. The bracket is really only set with the Top 4 and the Bottom 4 seeds at this juncture. It will be a tough tournament to win depending on who comes through. I for one, don't want to see Oregon State for the first time this season in the Quarterfinals -- especially given that they just beat UCLA. I'd much rather see USC or Washington State in that slot. 

[81alum]

The seedings are still up in the air contingent on some matchups this week. As outlined below, some things to keep an eye on. 

1. Stanford (18-2) vs. California (No impact, Arizona is unable to catch Stanford's winning percentage. 
2. Arizona (13-3) vs. Arizona State. Even if the Sun Devils reverse a recent slide and stun the Wildcats, Arizona holds the H2H tiebreaker over UCLA AND has played (and won) more games. 
3. UCLA (11-4) vs. USC (No impact)
4. Oregon (10-6) vs. Oregon State (No impact)

9. Arizona State (5-9) vs. Arizona
10. Utah (4-15) vs. Colorado If Utah loses, and Washington wins, Washington would sneak into the #10 spot. 
11. Washington (3-12) vs. Wazzu
12. (California (1-22) vs. Stanford
____

This is where it begins to get tricky given the cluster of teams in the middle, and the uneven amount of games played so far this season. I'll try to break it down based on results. In this first batch, Colorado beats Utah, Oregon State upsets Oregon, UCLA beats USC, and Washington State beats Washington. You would end up with standings like this:

5. Oregon State (7-6) (.538%) 
6. Colorado (9-8) (.529)
7. Washington State (9-10) (.473)
8. USC (8-10) (.44)

Per Pac-12 "[font="Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif] The won-lost percentage record of the teams in regular season Conference play will determine tournament seedings" So, even though Colorado has WON more games, if they both win this weekend, Oregon State will be seeded higher based on winning percentage. [/font]

This would lead to a bracket as follows: 

1 Stanford vs (8. Southern California vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Oregon State vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. Colorado vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Washington State vs 10 Utah) 

_____ 

On the flip side, let's say, Colorado beat Utah, Oregon beat Oregon State, Washington State won, and USC stunned shorthanded UCLA. 

5. Colorado (9-8) (.529)
6. USC (9-9) (.500) (Note, that in this scenario if, USC loses, they would be an 8 seed at 8-10)
7. Washington State (9-10) (.473) 
8. Oregon State (6-7) (.46)

1 Stanford vs (8. Oregon State vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Colorado vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. USC vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Washington State vs 10 Utah) 


____ 

I mean, it's just so many permutations. Let's run one where Utah sneaks past the Buffaloes, Oregon still wins, Washington State wins, and UCLA wins. 

5. Washington State (9-10) (.473)
6. Colorado (8-9) (.470)
7. Oregon State (6-7) (.46)
8. USC (8-10) (.444)

1 Stanford vs (8. USC vs. 9. Arizona State) 
4. Oregon vs. (5. Washington State vs. 12. California)
3. UCLA vs. (6. Colorado vs. 11 Washington)
2. Arizona vs. (7 Oregon State vs 10 Utah) 


So really, this just goes to show that we're in for a wild last weekend to settle the bracket, and who knows if make up games will be played before the tournament. The bracket is really only set with the Top 4 and the Bottom 4 seeds at this juncture. It will be a tough tournament to win depending on who comes through. I for one, don't want to see Oregon State for the first time this season in the Quarterfinals -- especially given that they just beat UCLA. I'd much rather see USC or Washington State in that slot. 

Thanks for that detailed analysis!

We did play Oregon State once this season, and beat them 83-58 on Feb 13.

[Lorcan]

I must have purged that game from memory. Clearly.

[martyup]

In every scenario, we have to play Oregon on our side of the bracket.  Not easy to beat a team 3 times in a row.

[BostonCard]

In every scenario, we have to play Oregon on our side of the bracket.  Not easy to beat a team 3 times in a row.

A reminder that we've beaten WSU 68 times in a row.  This is always a silly line.  I mean, sure, it is tough to go 3-0 against a reasonably evenly matched team.  However, conditional on having already beaten a team twice, beating them a third time is actually not as hard, all else being equal, I would prefer my chances against a team I've already beaten twice than against a team against whom I've split the first two games.  Oregon of course could beat us, as could Arizona or UCLA, or even "the field", but that's because they are a pretty good team, not because we have beaten them twice and they are somehow "due".

BC

[CompSci87]

Oregon didn't have much trouble beating Stanford 3 times last season. Time to return the favor.

[martyup]

It could be hard for the Ducks to get motivated to play us again.  Right now we are playing pretty well.