Game: Predict the Stanford-Oregon score

[needle]

Stanford 38
Oregon 37

Long offensive drives, red zone conversions for TDs key a surprisingly stout Stanford defensive showing that shockingly keeps Oregon out of the end zone until the second half -- and Stanford holds on for the victory.

[george]

Although the logical side of me is in agreement with what appears to be the general sentiment here that if we couldn't do it the last two years, we're certainly not going to do it this year, I don't see any downside with going big or going home and predicting the win.

In contrast to the last two years, where Stanford came out tight and/or faced injury issues, this year the Stanford team comes out loose facing an Oregon team under all the pressure.  People talk about Stanford potentially having an easier time reaching the rose bowl by LOSING this game to Oregon, so they're coming in with the mindset of playing with house money. 

Oregon after reading all week about how amazing they are, that Stanford with Andrew Luck couldn't beat them, and the noise at Autzen stadium will be deafening comes out flat.  Stanford receives the opening kick and goes on a 7 minute TD drive and David Shaw goes for 2 putting the good guys up 8-0.  No problem says the Oregon team, now we do our thing.  But the Stanford D, buoyed by the offense punching Oregon in the mouth forces them to a 3 and out.  Stanford gets the ball back and spends the rest of the first of the first quarter on it's 2nd td drive. 

It's decidedly quieter as the second quarter starts with Stanford up 15-0 and Oregon only having had one possession.  Stanford is loading up to stop the run so Mariota starts airing it out.  A couple of short screen passes are bottled up pretty well and Oregon is held to 4th and 1 from their own 35.  Chip Kelly goes for it and Ed Reynolds picks off a Mariota pass.  One more TD drive and now Stanford is up 22-0 with 9 minutes to go in the first half. 

In the ensuing kickoff, Thomas takes it to the house to make it 22-7.  Stanford is able to have one last TD drive to close the half, making the halftime score 29-7.

Stanford comes out in the second half, onside kicks, recovers and scores one more time to make the score 36-7.  Then they spend the rest of the game holding on for dear life winning 36-34 (failed 2 pt conversion) as time expires.

And Gauss, can we please put the order in a way that favors Stanford?  We shouldn't be penalizing the people who are picking Stanford by putting them at the bottom of the list should we?  At the vary least, shouldn't the point differentials be in favor of Stanford? 

[oman]

I like how both Hogan and Luck would say they liked to be hit first before they felt lose and warmed up.

In both prior Oregon games, we entered undefeated, and weren't lose.

Here's hoping that being lose somehow translates to better decisions regarding which way their speedsters are cutting.

[yvonne]

If they don't feel loose, it's more likely they will lose.

[JeffInCorvallis]

Oregon 42 Stanford 31

Here's the deal:  I don't think we have much of a chance if Oregon scores more than 40.  Their defense is good (if depleted) and our offense really hasn't shown that much all year against good teams.  We need to control the ball and keep their quick-strike offense off the field as much as possible.  We also need to keep the pedal pressed: no lead is safe when the other team can score touchdowns in a minute.

One point in our favor:  We know how to win close games.  Every game we've been in has been close with the exception of Duke and K.al.  Two overtime games, won one, lost one.  We've been on the road at a loud Seattle (and lost miserably), hung right with N.otre D.ame at South Bend, and blew out that team across the Bay.  Oregon, on the other hand, has been playing teams like Arkansas State, with their only reasonably close game being at the Coliseum against the Trojans.  If we can manage to keep the game close into the 4th quarter they just might tighten up a bit, knowing that their MNC hopes are on the line. 

And David Shaw, if you are reading this, please, please, PLEASE don't let your team be surprised by an onside kick, two-point conversion, fake field goal, or fake punt.  Don't let your defensive unit be caught celebrating a 3rd down stop while they convert 4th down. 

[SamAtoms1980]

Stanford 36, Oregon 31.

This feels very much like last year's game, with the roles reversed, right down to the weather.  They are just as desperate to showcase their team in the MNC as we were a year ago.  Their injury problems on defense are roughly on a par with our own on offense a year ago.  And remember, they have a devil of a lot more to lose than we do.  I bantered with an Oregon fan yesterday on another board, they are definitely tense.

Last year we were favored by 3½ and lost by 23.  They're favored by 20½ in this game, with the psychological circumstances as they are, there's no reason we can't engineer a swing of the same size, and win by five or six.

The Cardinal will win this football game.

(This post was last modified: 11-16-2012, 01:05 PM by SamAtoms1980.)

[ahuang06]

Have you guys seen that moneyline pays anywhere from +800 to +1200? That seems like a ridiculously high payout for Stanford to win.

Link: http://msn.foxsports.com/collegefootball/odds/moneyline

[ChicagoCard]

Lou Holtz tells listeners he hopes they're sitting down for his pick: Stanford over Oregon...

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:8640197 (at 1:10)

[CowboyIndian]

Lou Holtz tells listeners he hopes they're sitting down for his pick: Stanford over Oregon...

No-o-o-o-o-o!!!

[Gauss]

Wow, 20 participants, that's excellent. Thank you guys.
It is very interesting to read how everyone thinks the game will go, and to separate the optimist from the realistic souls ;o)

And Gauss, can we please put the order in a way that favors Stanford?  We shouldn't be penalizing the people who are picking Stanford by putting them at the bottom of the list should we?  At the vary least, shouldn't the point differentials be in favor of Stanford?

Hey, we're not penalizing anyone, it's just a convention! You should appreciate that I didn't decide to list the results along the 30 degree axis in the complex plane.
More seriously, I can see where you're coming from. I also feel it's aesthetically awkward to consider as positive results the Oregon wins.

But this is the convention used in betting lines (away team gets negative differentials), so I thought it'd be educational to follow it. At least for me, every time I see a line I have to think twice about what a negative number means.

[cardcoug]

I think the biggest surprise in this game is going to be Hogan. Everyone talks about how the Ducks' front is bruised, but their secondary is just as badly beat up, and I fully expect Oregon to stack the box all night. I would like even Nunes to put up some yards; with Hogan, I think our tight ends finish with somewhere around 200 yards pushing around little corners and safeties.

Probably wishful thinking, but.... Stanford 37, Oregon 31. Oregon finishes with under 100 yards rushing, but well over 300 yards passing.

(This post was last modified: 11-16-2012, 09:21 PM by cardcoug.)

[CompSci87]

I predict Stanford beats Oregon 71-69, inspired by the WBB team. :-)

[Ratmandoo]

Over the last couple of years, it feels like Stanford has good and bad weekends. I have no idea if this is actually true but it certainly feels that way. I'm sure I could go back and check but that really goes against my lazy nature.

And this weekend is off to a great start with the women's basketball team's upset of Baylor, the No. 1 women's soccer team advancing to the third round of the NCAAs with a 2-1 win over Santa Clara, and No.1 women's volleyball team winninng on the road at UCLA tonight. Weekends start on Friday so I'm going to ignore the volleyball team's loss to USC on Thursday.

My prediction / fantasy for the football team - Oregon gets the opening kick off and drives 80 yards in 3 plays and 42 seconds. The Ducks go for 2 and get it to go up 8-0. As the Oregon crowd goes crazy, everyone assumes the game is over. Herbstreit and Musburger drone on about the unstoppable Oregon offense and that they are going to the National Championship Game and Stanford doesn't have a chance.

On the sideline, Josh Nunes quietly goes up to Kevin Hogan and says, "Do your job. You got this." The Stanford offense gets the ball at the 20 and proceeds to take 14 plays over 8 minutes, and with a 2-point conversion, ties the game. Then, to the surprise of everyone except for Chip Kelly,  Shaw calls for an on-side kick which Oregon recovers at midfield. Oregon, overconfident after their first drive, gets stuffed on the first play and then the second play. On third down, Chase Thomas comes free and sack Mariota for a 12 yard loss. A drive that started at midfield ends up with Oregon punting from their own 36-yard line.

Stanford takes back over its own 10 yard line. This time, Hogan drives the team on a 18 play, 11 minute drive to put Stanford up 15-8. With 8 minutes left in the half, Shaw calls another on-side kick which even Chip Kellly doesn't see coming and Stanford recovers at midfield. Again, behind 8 Stepfan Taylor carries, Stanford drives for another touchdown in 6 minutes to go up 22-8.

Oregon's third drive of the half quickly ends with a 3 and out and they punt the ball back to Stanford with 1:25 left. Hogan is able to get Stanford into field goal range and Jordan Williamson nails a 48-yard field goal to end the half with the Cardinal leading 25-8.

During the halftime show, Jesse Palmer talks about Stanford playing the perfect half but really Oregon has the Cardinal right where they want them. He predicts the Ducks will come out in the second half and go on one of their big runs. Somewhere on the ESPN sideline, Lee Corso is thinking "Not so fast" forgetting that he picked the Ducks earlier in the day on Game Day.

Oregon is set to kick off and everyone on the Stanford sideline is expecting an onside kick which comes and Stanford recovers. With a short field again, Shaw calls a play-action pass and Hogan finds a wide open Ty Montgomery at the 10 yard line and Montgomery walks into the endzone - 32-8 Stanford. One play, 7 second drive.

On the ensuing kick-off, D'Anthony Thomas trying to do too much, brings the ball out 8 yards deep in the endzone. Ronnie Harris lines of Thomas perfectly at the 12 yard line and DAT fumbles the ball and Stanford recovers. Three plays later, Taylor is heading the ball to the back judge for his third touchdown of the game. Stanford 39, Oregon 8 with 11 minutes left in the third quarter.

Now the game falls into the hands of Marcus Mariota. He makes some plays and makes some mistakes driving Oregon to the Stanford side of the field but throws an interception at the Stanford 23 yard line. Hogan engineers another long time consuming drive to the Oregon 6 yard line and Williamson makes a chip shot field goal to put the Cardinal up 42 - 8 with a minute left in the third quarter.

The 34 point deficit is too much for Oregon to overcome in the fourth quarter. They score a couple of touchdowns but give up another long play-action pass touchdown from Hogan to Ertz.

Final Score: Stanford 49, Oregon 22.

The rest of the weekend finishes with the Women's basketball team crushing Hawaii and Tennesse-Martin and the women's soccer team reaches the NCAA quarterfinals with a 3-1 win over Denver on Sunday. It will be a hell of a weekend for Stanford sports.

[TRD]

I'm really worried that this could be 21-3 at the end of the first quarter for the Ducks.

It pains me to predict 48-28 for Oregano U.  :(

[OutsiderFan]

It really baffles me why so many people here think Stanford's offense is going to be shut down tonight.  Oregon's D isn't great when healthy.  Now they are depleted, which means not only are their front line guys weaker, they have no depth.

Everyone talks about Oregon's offense wearing teams out, but what about Stanford?  Stanford is a physical team that can pound a defense for 12 play drives.  Oregon's defense is going to be worn out in the 4th quarter.  And Stanford's defense is injury free, with 2-deep depth at every position.

If Stanford's OL can get a consistent push, which the evidence suggests they will, this game is going to be much closer than most Stanford fans are fearing.

[dabigv13]

It really baffles me why so many people here think Stanford's offense is going to be shut down tonight.  Oregon's D isn't great when healthy.  Now they are depleted, which means not only are their front line guys weaker, they have no depth.

This is a ridiculous statement. The Oregon defense is actually very good. They shut out Arizona, a team that put 48 points on us. Yes they have injuries, but their scheme is good and with their system, all of their backup players get plenty of conditioning and reps in practice. And the freshmen they're dropping in, like Arik Armstead, are top recruits. Peat, Murphy, Garnett level recruits (Armstead was actually the number 1 rated OL recruit last year, ahead of all our guys).

A win tonight would be a monumental upset, 7.7 on the Pritchard scale.

[tfeldstein]

I see so Armisted is the answer while Peet/Garnett/Murphy play a few snaps a game and can't put Danser/Wilkjes on the bench? Laughable.

[dabigv13]

I've never understood the obsession with getting Wilkes and Danser off the field...they're redshirt juniors who have come up in some of the best years of sustained offensive line play in recent college football. They were well regarded recruits, not walk-ons. And they've generally played well.

It seems like we're expecting true freshmen to come in and immediately start playing like Martin and DeCastro in their prime, and that's not realistic.

[washingtonismoney]

The obsession with getting Wilkes off the field is pretty simple: he's played below average, and doesn't pull terribly well. That's a problem in our offense, especially since Yankey is a fantastic puller. So theoretically you could get a big improvement at two positions. I suspect the coaches have always wanted Peat, but that his injuries have interrupted his progression.

[WaldportCard]

Keep in mind it's pouring down rain.  Rubber duckies float.  Autzen will look more like a venue for those Roman naval battles than a football field.

Go Cards!  Bring periscope and swim fins.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/find...gene,%20or