[DC 86]

[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=15521.msg168925#msg168925 date=1472525600]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=15521.msg168922#msg168922 date=1472525129]

Yes, generally outside of Rosen throwing more often, Browning had better numbers than Rosen.

And ignoring TD/Interception ratio.
[/quote]

And completion percentage.  And yards per attempt.
[/quote]


Completion percentage and YPA are already the basis for CT's statement that "Browning had better numbers than Rosen"; I was pointing out that there are numbers that favored Rosen besides "throwing more often".

[DC 86]

[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=15521.msg168925#msg168925 date=1472525600]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=15521.msg168922#msg168922 date=1472525129]

Yes, generally outside of Rosen throwing more often, Browning had better numbers than Rosen.

And ignoring TD/Interception ratio.
[/quote]

And completion percentage.  And yards per attempt.
[/quote]


Completion percentage and YPA are already the basis for CT's statement that "Browning had better numbers than Rosen"; I was pointing out that there are numbers that favored Rosen besides "throwing more often".

[DC 86]

The sample size is too small to make any conclusions (statistically) about the TD/INT ratio.

BC

Perhaps better stated their respective TD% and Int% (which are major components of passer ratings formulas) are based on over 850 passes (combined), perhaps that is not a meaningful sample size but that implies that virtually all single season statistics are based on insufficient sample size.

[DC 86]

The sample size is too small to make any conclusions (statistically) about the TD/INT ratio.

BC

Perhaps better stated their respective TD% and Int% (which are major components of passer ratings formulas) are based on over 850 passes (combined), perhaps that is not a meaningful sample size but that implies that virtually all single season statistics are based on insufficient sample size.

[DC 86]

CT, your examples of Goff/Hackenberg are good ones in reminding us that it's impossible to confidently project Browning/Rosen's and other freshmens' career trajectories. But one overriding element in Hackenberg's decline was Bill O'Brien's departure after his freshman year and the installation of a new offensive system. The hype around Hackenberg wasn't only based on his high school accomplishments and his measurables, but also on a genuinely productive freshman year. Maybe O'Brien's system masked his flaws and Franklin's system exposed them, but the coaching change was clearly the trigger for his declining performance.


As you correctly point out, the opportunity to play as a true freshman QB usually is a result of the program's weakness at the position due to poor recruiting or development, but the fact that Browning and Rosen both took advantage of the opportunity and played well right from their opening games is still notable and not the norm.

[DC 86]

CT, your examples of Goff/Hackenberg are good ones in reminding us that it's impossible to confidently project Browning/Rosen's and other freshmens' career trajectories. But one overriding element in Hackenberg's decline was Bill O'Brien's departure after his freshman year and the installation of a new offensive system. The hype around Hackenberg wasn't only based on his high school accomplishments and his measurables, but also on a genuinely productive freshman year. Maybe O'Brien's system masked his flaws and Franklin's system exposed them, but the coaching change was clearly the trigger for his declining performance.


As you correctly point out, the opportunity to play as a true freshman QB usually is a result of the program's weakness at the position due to poor recruiting or development, but the fact that Browning and Rosen both took advantage of the opportunity and played well right from their opening games is still notable and not the norm.

[stupac2]

CT, your examples of Goff/Hackenberg are good ones in reminding us that it's impossible to confidently project Browning/Rosen's and other freshmens' career trajectories. But one overriding element in Hackenberg's decline was Bill O'Brien's departure after his freshman year and the installation of a new offensive system. The hype around Hackenberg wasn't only based on his high school accomplishments and his measurables, but also on a genuinely productive freshman year. Maybe O'Brien's system masked his flaws and Franklin's system exposed them, but the coaching change was clearly the trigger for his declining performance.

People make this case, but it reads like post hoc ergo propter hoc to me. In some ways Hackenberg's decline is overdetermined (shitty OL, shitty receivers, shitty scheme/coach) which sounds to me like a lot of excuse-making, it's not like Goff had great versions of those things. The book on him isn't totally written, of course, supposedly he looked good for the Jets in preseason, though we all know how much that means.

[stupac2]

CT, your examples of Goff/Hackenberg are good ones in reminding us that it's impossible to confidently project Browning/Rosen's and other freshmens' career trajectories. But one overriding element in Hackenberg's decline was Bill O'Brien's departure after his freshman year and the installation of a new offensive system. The hype around Hackenberg wasn't only based on his high school accomplishments and his measurables, but also on a genuinely productive freshman year. Maybe O'Brien's system masked his flaws and Franklin's system exposed them, but the coaching change was clearly the trigger for his declining performance.

People make this case, but it reads like post hoc ergo propter hoc to me. In some ways Hackenberg's decline is overdetermined (shitty OL, shitty receivers, shitty scheme/coach) which sounds to me like a lot of excuse-making, it's not like Goff had great versions of those things. The book on him isn't totally written, of course, supposedly he looked good for the Jets in preseason, though we all know how much that means.

[CowboyIndian]

(shitty OL, shitty receivers, shitty scheme/coach) which sounds to me like a lot of excuse-making, it's not like Goff had great versions of those things.

Really? Goff had excellent receivers and a coach with a system that fit him like a glove. His OL was decent if not outstanding.

[CowboyIndian]

(shitty OL, shitty receivers, shitty scheme/coach) which sounds to me like a lot of excuse-making, it's not like Goff had great versions of those things.

Really? Goff had excellent receivers and a coach with a system that fit him like a glove. His OL was decent if not outstanding.

[stupac2]

I thought Goff's receivers (especially last year) weren't anything special, but I admittedly don't watch Cal outside of Big Game. They had one first-team all-conference WR and one HM last year, which probably means they're not chopped liver but at the same time it's hard to separate cause/effect here, did Goff make them look better than they are? Did Hackenberg make his team look worse? It's really hard to untangle.

I also have no been particularly impressed with Dykes's offense, I think Goff would've done well in pretty much any college offense.

[stupac2]

I thought Goff's receivers (especially last year) weren't anything special, but I admittedly don't watch Cal outside of Big Game. They had one first-team all-conference WR and one HM last year, which probably means they're not chopped liver but at the same time it's hard to separate cause/effect here, did Goff make them look better than they are? Did Hackenberg make his team look worse? It's really hard to untangle.

I also have no been particularly impressed with Dykes's offense, I think Goff would've done well in pretty much any college offense.

[fullmetal]

... it's all about Rosen

that was true of a few Stanford people I knew as well  ::)


Goff had some very fast receivers.  Who has to run crisp routes when you can just burn DBs with speed and have a great QB pinpoint you downfield?

[fullmetal]

... it's all about Rosen

that was true of a few Stanford people I knew as well  ::)


Goff had some very fast receivers.  Who has to run crisp routes when you can just burn DBs with speed and have a great QB pinpoint you downfield?

[CTcard]

I thought Goff's receivers (especially last year) weren't anything special, but I admittedly don't watch ןɐɔ outside of Big Game.

Well, sort of Cal had one all-conference WR and two HM, as Andersen was HM as a TE but didn't play a traditional TE position.

Cal had 5 receivers on 2016 NFL draft boards. Two got drafted.
Interestingly, the first guy drafted wasn't one of the three all-conference guys.

So, they had,
Lawler - first team all conference, drafted 7th round (Seattle)
Andersen - honorable mention as a TE. Not drafted. Signed with Texans
Treggs - honorable mention. Not drafted. Signed with 49ers. Moved to Palo Alto
Davis - drafted in 5th round (Green Bay)
Powe - signed with Giants

Of course we were sort of talking about Goff's receivers when he was a frosh in 2013. In general Cal was terrible that year (1-11). Their top receiver was Chris Harper, who declared for the draft in 2015 but was not drafted. Their #2 was Treggs who made honorable mention All Pac 12. Their #3 guy was Rodgers who was drafted third round in 2014. Their #4 guy was Lawler.

All in all, a pretty good set of WRs.

[CTcard]

I thought Goff's receivers (especially last year) weren't anything special, but I admittedly don't watch ןɐɔ outside of Big Game.

Well, sort of Cal had one all-conference WR and two HM, as Andersen was HM as a TE but didn't play a traditional TE position.

Cal had 5 receivers on 2016 NFL draft boards. Two got drafted.
Interestingly, the first guy drafted wasn't one of the three all-conference guys.

So, they had,
Lawler - first team all conference, drafted 7th round (Seattle)
Andersen - honorable mention as a TE. Not drafted. Signed with Texans
Treggs - honorable mention. Not drafted. Signed with 49ers. Moved to Palo Alto
Davis - drafted in 5th round (Green Bay)
Powe - signed with Giants

Of course we were sort of talking about Goff's receivers when he was a frosh in 2013. In general Cal was terrible that year (1-11). Their top receiver was Chris Harper, who declared for the draft in 2015 but was not drafted. Their #2 was Treggs who made honorable mention All Pac 12. Their #3 guy was Rodgers who was drafted third round in 2014. Their #4 guy was Lawler.

All in all, a pretty good set of WRs.

[BostonCard]

Treggs - honorable mention as a TE. Not drafted. Signed with 49ers. Moved to Palo Alto

I see what you did there.

I agree that it would be hard to argue that Cal and Goff had sub-par wide receivers.  His offensive line, though, was average at best, though in that offense, you don't need a superb offensive line.

BC

[BostonCard]

Treggs - honorable mention as a TE. Not drafted. Signed with 49ers. Moved to Palo Alto

I see what you did there.

I agree that it would be hard to argue that Cal and Goff had sub-par wide receivers.  His offensive line, though, was average at best, though in that offense, you don't need a superb offensive line.

BC