05-01-2018, 11:43 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2018, 01:32 PM by ColoradoTree.)
Three hours away from seeing the bracket. Here's hoping the 2-0 record against UCLA comes into play for us, because I'd rather avoid Vanderbilt and UNC in a Round of 16 match. Duke and Georgia Tech are very good and could absolutely beat us, but I like our chances in a match against them much better than Vanderbilt and UNC.
One wrinkle is where Pepperdine falls. They have just two losses this year, to #1 North Carolina in the Indoor Nationals final, and to UCLA at the end of the season. But, as usual, their relatively weak conference means their resume lacks enough quality wins to get a higher seed. If they're a 12 and Stanford is a 13? Don't be surprised if Stanford beats Georgia Tech or Duke and Pepperdine knocks off Texas and instead of a 4-5 matchup in the quarterfinals, you get 12-13.
This year's advent of the USTA rankings is useful; it'll be a nice data point to have when looking through the bracket and comparing where a team's seed (based on its resume) differs noticeably from experts' opinions of how good the team actually is (the USTA rankings). In the projected ITA rankings, Pepperdine is 12th, but the USTA thinks they're 4th (and ranked them #1 for much of the season). Stanford is projected to be 15th in the ITA rankings, but is 7th in the USTA poll. The USTA also thinks relatively highly of UCLA (14th; 8th)
FYI, teams that the USTA thinks are a bit overrated in the ITA rankings include Ole Miss (6th in projected ITA rankings; 10th in USTA poll), Georgia (7th in ITA; 11th in USTA), Oklahoma State (9th; 12th), and South Carolina (10th; 14th).
There is general agreement that North Carolina and Vanderbilt are the top 2 teams, while Duke is 3rd (the last USTA rankings had Duke in 2nd over UNC, but that'll flip based on the ACC final, which UNC won 4-2).
Anyway, all that to say that if there's a way to avoid UNC/Vanderbilt (and preferably Duke, too) in the Round of 16 and avoid Pepperdine in the quarterfinals, that's excellent news. If, say, we could play Georgia Tech in the Round of 16 and Ole Miss in the quarters, that's about as well as could be expected.
(Also, I like that on the NCAA.com page announcing the selection show, there's a picture of Emma Higuchi. It's almost as if they're saying, "yeah, we're going to underseed Stanford and yeah, we know they'll make a deep run--that's just how it goes.")
One wrinkle is where Pepperdine falls. They have just two losses this year, to #1 North Carolina in the Indoor Nationals final, and to UCLA at the end of the season. But, as usual, their relatively weak conference means their resume lacks enough quality wins to get a higher seed. If they're a 12 and Stanford is a 13? Don't be surprised if Stanford beats Georgia Tech or Duke and Pepperdine knocks off Texas and instead of a 4-5 matchup in the quarterfinals, you get 12-13.
This year's advent of the USTA rankings is useful; it'll be a nice data point to have when looking through the bracket and comparing where a team's seed (based on its resume) differs noticeably from experts' opinions of how good the team actually is (the USTA rankings). In the projected ITA rankings, Pepperdine is 12th, but the USTA thinks they're 4th (and ranked them #1 for much of the season). Stanford is projected to be 15th in the ITA rankings, but is 7th in the USTA poll. The USTA also thinks relatively highly of UCLA (14th; 8th)
FYI, teams that the USTA thinks are a bit overrated in the ITA rankings include Ole Miss (6th in projected ITA rankings; 10th in USTA poll), Georgia (7th in ITA; 11th in USTA), Oklahoma State (9th; 12th), and South Carolina (10th; 14th).
There is general agreement that North Carolina and Vanderbilt are the top 2 teams, while Duke is 3rd (the last USTA rankings had Duke in 2nd over UNC, but that'll flip based on the ACC final, which UNC won 4-2).
Anyway, all that to say that if there's a way to avoid UNC/Vanderbilt (and preferably Duke, too) in the Round of 16 and avoid Pepperdine in the quarterfinals, that's excellent news. If, say, we could play Georgia Tech in the Round of 16 and Ole Miss in the quarters, that's about as well as could be expected.
(Also, I like that on the NCAA.com page announcing the selection show, there's a picture of Emma Higuchi. It's almost as if they're saying, "yeah, we're going to underseed Stanford and yeah, we know they'll make a deep run--that's just how it goes.")