[Spiny_Norman]

Who is ready for more golf? Stanford men's team begins play tomorrow in the NCAA tournament at 7 am local time/5 am pacific on the 10th tee in the first round of stroke play. Stanford is seeded 16th out of the 30 teams and is paired with Arkansas and Arizona State for the first 2 rounds. Format is the same as for the women - 72 holes of stroke play, top 8 teams advance to match play. It's even tougher for the men since there are 30 teams in the field vs. 24 for the women.

The Stanford lineup is:
1- Brandon Wu (junior)
2 - Isaiah Salinda (junior)
3 - Franklin Huang (senior)
4 - Jeffrey Swegle (senior)
5 - David Snyder (soph)

It's a very experienced team. Huang has played in 3 NCAA tournaments, Wu and Swegle 2 NCAA tournaments and Salinda 1. This will be Snyder's first NCAA. But experience has not translated to success. Stanford has failed to make the 4th round cut each of the prior 3 years. They have finished in 21st, 28th and 20th places. So the team has something to prove to itself this year - that it can be competitive in the biggest tournament of the year.

Favorites are local teams.  The top 3 seeds are Oklahoma State (the host), Texas A&M and Oklahoma (defending national champ).

[Spiny_Norman]

Who is ready for more golf? Stanford men's team begins play tomorrow in the NCAA tournament at 7 am local time/5 am pacific on the 10th tee in the first round of stroke play. Stanford is seeded 16th out of the 30 teams and is paired with Arkansas and Arizona State for the first 2 rounds. Format is the same as for the women - 72 holes of stroke play, top 8 teams advance to match play. It's even tougher for the men since there are 30 teams in the field vs. 24 for the women.

The Stanford lineup is:
1- Brandon Wu (junior)
2 - Isaiah Salinda (junior)
3 - Franklin Huang (senior)
4 - Jeffrey Swegle (senior)
5 - David Snyder (soph)

It's a very experienced team. Huang has played in 3 NCAA tournaments, Wu and Swegle 2 NCAA tournaments and Salinda 1. This will be Snyder's first NCAA. But experience has not translated to success. Stanford has failed to make the 4th round cut each of the prior 3 years. They have finished in 21st, 28th and 20th places. So the team has something to prove to itself this year - that it can be competitive in the biggest tournament of the year.

Favorites are local teams.  The top 3 seeds are Oklahoma State (the host), Texas A&M and Oklahoma (defending national champ).

[bbm233]

To finish in the top 8 and get to match play, we will need Huang to play like he did as a Soph, Wu to play like he did last fall, Swegle to play like he did in Feb and Mar, and Salinda and Snyder to make pars. 

It's all about how many rounds in the 60s the team can post. We saw that on the women's side, with Lee, Valenzuela and Aubert each able to get into the 60s once or twice, to overcome the inevitable poor score from one or two of the other players in rounds 2-4. In round 1, nobody was in the 60s and the team score was not good. I am pretty sure that the last two years, when the men were cut before the fourth round, there were zero rounds in the 60s (but also no really bad rounds either). Lots of scores between 71 and 76.

[bbm233]

To finish in the top 8 and get to match play, we will need Huang to play like he did as a Soph, Wu to play like he did last fall, Swegle to play like he did in Feb and Mar, and Salinda and Snyder to make pars. 

It's all about how many rounds in the 60s the team can post. We saw that on the women's side, with Lee, Valenzuela and Aubert each able to get into the 60s once or twice, to overcome the inevitable poor score from one or two of the other players in rounds 2-4. In round 1, nobody was in the 60s and the team score was not good. I am pretty sure that the last two years, when the men were cut before the fourth round, there were zero rounds in the 60s (but also no really bad rounds either). Lots of scores between 71 and 76.

[slide]

To finish in the top 8 and get to match play, we will need Huang to play like he did as a Soph, Wu to play like he did last fall, Swegle to play like he did in Feb and Mar, and Salinda and Snyder to make pars. 

It's all about how many rounds in the 60s the team can post. We saw that on the women's side, with Lee, Valenzuela and Aubert each able to get into the 60s once or twice, to overcome the inevitable poor score from one or two of the other players in rounds 2-4. In round 1, nobody was in the 60s and the team score was not good. I am pretty sure that the last two years, when the men were cut before the fourth round, there were zero rounds in the 60s (but also no really bad rounds either). Lots of scores between 71 and 76.

that's a good formula.  for the women this year, they had 3 rounds in the mid-60s (2 by Lee; 1 by Valenzuela).  no other rounds in the 60s.  Aubert's low round in stroke play was 71.  the other two players low rounds were 75 (and 3 of their 8 rounds were in the 80s).  I'd say fortunate to go as far as they did given the scores.  good on them for making the most of it.

on men, yes, I think you are correct except for may be one round in the 60s from Boote in Eugene 2 years ago.  a 68 or 69?  point is still the same -- no one went low and you need a couple to do so to be successful.   

from the little I've seen of the current team, they seem like they have pretty good control of their drivers.  not exceptionally long, but pretty consistently in play.  pretty good short games.  no idea how well they'll play in the wind.

[slide]

To finish in the top 8 and get to match play, we will need Huang to play like he did as a Soph, Wu to play like he did last fall, Swegle to play like he did in Feb and Mar, and Salinda and Snyder to make pars. 

It's all about how many rounds in the 60s the team can post. We saw that on the women's side, with Lee, Valenzuela and Aubert each able to get into the 60s once or twice, to overcome the inevitable poor score from one or two of the other players in rounds 2-4. In round 1, nobody was in the 60s and the team score was not good. I am pretty sure that the last two years, when the men were cut before the fourth round, there were zero rounds in the 60s (but also no really bad rounds either). Lots of scores between 71 and 76.

that's a good formula.  for the women this year, they had 3 rounds in the mid-60s (2 by Lee; 1 by Valenzuela).  no other rounds in the 60s.  Aubert's low round in stroke play was 71.  the other two players low rounds were 75 (and 3 of their 8 rounds were in the 80s).  I'd say fortunate to go as far as they did given the scores.  good on them for making the most of it.

on men, yes, I think you are correct except for may be one round in the 60s from Boote in Eugene 2 years ago.  a 68 or 69?  point is still the same -- no one went low and you need a couple to do so to be successful.   

from the little I've seen of the current team, they seem like they have pretty good control of their drivers.  not exceptionally long, but pretty consistently in play.  pretty good short games.  no idea how well they'll play in the wind.

[bbm233]

I guess that 71 by Aubert seemed lower, given her form coming into the tournament. 

My prediction: 3 rounds in the 60s lets us advance to the fourth round, and 6 rounds in the 60s gets us to match play (5 might be good enough).

[bbm233]

I guess that 71 by Aubert seemed lower, given her form coming into the tournament. 

My prediction: 3 rounds in the 60s lets us advance to the fourth round, and 6 rounds in the 60s gets us to match play (5 might be good enough).

[slide]

I guess that 71 by Aubert seemed lower, given her form coming into the tournament. 

My prediction: 3 rounds in the 60s lets us advance to the fourth round, and 6 rounds in the 60s gets us to match play (5 might be good enough).

that works for me.  my other add is to not be a short-squad -- essentially only 4 in play each day.  that grinds on you.

[slide]

I guess that 71 by Aubert seemed lower, given her form coming into the tournament. 

My prediction: 3 rounds in the 60s lets us advance to the fourth round, and 6 rounds in the 60s gets us to match play (5 might be good enough).

that works for me.  my other add is to not be a short-squad -- essentially only 4 in play each day.  that grinds on you.

[Hulk01]

I'd love to see us get to match play, and we did manage to outplay two top ten teams (LSU and Alabama) in the Regionals, but I hope no casual Stanford fans expect that Stanford should advance.  It's just not a very talented team. 

This course, however, favors us relative to many of the top 20 teams.  It inflicts much heavier penalties on bad shots--doubles and triples--and doesn't offer up a lot of birdie chances.  The team that can grind out a lot of pars and avoid the woods and the wrong parts of these greens has an advantage. 

It also places a premium on reading speed; if someone kept a tally of three putts (and four putts), this course probably lapped the previous NCAA record.  

The afternoon rounds could get especially wicked if the wind and heat go up. 

It's a terrific test.  (I amend my earlier nasty comments about Tom Fazio.)  If we get into the final eight, it's a sign that we're a damn good team that just plays too many courses where intelligence,  course management, patience/emotional control, and accuracy matter too little.

[Hulk01]

I'd love to see us get to match play, and we did manage to outplay two top ten teams (LSU and Alabama) in the Regionals, but I hope no casual Stanford fans expect that Stanford should advance.  It's just not a very talented team. 

This course, however, favors us relative to many of the top 20 teams.  It inflicts much heavier penalties on bad shots--doubles and triples--and doesn't offer up a lot of birdie chances.  The team that can grind out a lot of pars and avoid the woods and the wrong parts of these greens has an advantage. 

It also places a premium on reading speed; if someone kept a tally of three putts (and four putts), this course probably lapped the previous NCAA record.  

The afternoon rounds could get especially wicked if the wind and heat go up. 

It's a terrific test.  (I amend my earlier nasty comments about Tom Fazio.)  If we get into the final eight, it's a sign that we're a damn good team that just plays too many courses where intelligence,  course management, patience/emotional control, and accuracy matter too little.

[Spiny_Norman]

The team better figure out the greens quickly - the speed, reading the break, where to leave approach shots to have a chance at the hole.  Huang is the only Stanford player to have played Karsten Creek before. And the team only gets one practice round.

The committee is stretching the course to the tips. It will play at 7460 yards. 6 of the par 4s will play 450 yards or longer. 

Of note, Stanford is the highest seeded P12 school in the field. Also competing - ASU (18), UCLA (22), Oregon (25). P12 conference champ USC did not make it out of regionals. P12 men's golf definitely not the same on a national scale as P12 women's golf. Big 12 is dominant in Stillwater with OSU (1 seed), OU (2), Baylor (9), Texas Tech (10), Texas (12) and Kansas (15). SEC also strong with Texas A&M (2), Alabama (4), Florida (5), Auburn (6).

[Spiny_Norman]

The team better figure out the greens quickly - the speed, reading the break, where to leave approach shots to have a chance at the hole.  Huang is the only Stanford player to have played Karsten Creek before. And the team only gets one practice round.

The committee is stretching the course to the tips. It will play at 7460 yards. 6 of the par 4s will play 450 yards or longer. 

Of note, Stanford is the highest seeded P12 school in the field. Also competing - ASU (18), UCLA (22), Oregon (25). P12 conference champ USC did not make it out of regionals. P12 men's golf definitely not the same on a national scale as P12 women's golf. Big 12 is dominant in Stillwater with OSU (1 seed), OU (2), Baylor (9), Texas Tech (10), Texas (12) and Kansas (15). SEC also strong with Texas A&M (2), Alabama (4), Florida (5), Auburn (6).

[slide]

just an aside on length.  a couple of years ago when Mav was on the team, I went and followed him at a local college tournament.  on one hole, a 168 par 3 over water.  wind was in his face and he sawed off a high cut 8 iron onto the green and a bit long.  I asked him about it afterwards.  he thought it was playing closer to 180 and he was worried that 9 wasn't enough and he didn't bring want to bring the water into play -- so the 8 was the play.  

the moral here is 7460 is long but not eye opening for these kids.  keeping it in play off the tee and play to the right parts of the greens will keep their eyes open.  I hope hulk is right about the course favoring management over brute length/strength.

[slide]

just an aside on length.  a couple of years ago when Mav was on the team, I went and followed him at a local college tournament.  on one hole, a 168 par 3 over water.  wind was in his face and he sawed off a high cut 8 iron onto the green and a bit long.  I asked him about it afterwards.  he thought it was playing closer to 180 and he was worried that 9 wasn't enough and he didn't bring want to bring the water into play -- so the 8 was the play.  

the moral here is 7460 is long but not eye opening for these kids.  keeping it in play off the tee and play to the right parts of the greens will keep their eyes open.  I hope hulk is right about the course favoring management over brute length/strength.

[Hulk01]

 I hope hulk is right about the course favoring management over brute length/strength.

Haley Moore hit cut drivers on every par four and five and Ade, her opponent, stopped using her driver entirely until the last hole of regulation, when she realized she had to hit the green in two.  Moore, a very long hitter, decided long wasn't worth the risk.  Those two women's decisions all but confirmed for me that Karsten's premium is on  accuracy. 

It also appeared there were a lot of places on thse fairways you don't want to be for your approach shot. 

Don't know what team this favors.  In my competitive days, the very good college players from the US Southwest were, almost of necessity, guys who hit long, low draws to cope with Southwest winds and well-baked fairways.  That ball flight on this course, from what I saw, will get you on a plane flight home Saturday night.

---

One more re accuracy vs. distance.  There are many holes at Karsten Creek where a ball not far off the fairway can be in virtually unplayable lie.  I'm not sure when I last saw a course where so many players were having trouble finding their ball, and then trying to figure what do once they made the discovery.  That may help explain why the rounds in this event took so long.

[Hulk01]

 I hope hulk is right about the course favoring management over brute length/strength.

Haley Moore hit cut drivers on every par four and five and Ade, her opponent, stopped using her driver entirely until the last hole of regulation, when she realized she had to hit the green in two.  Moore, a very long hitter, decided long wasn't worth the risk.  Those two women's decisions all but confirmed for me that Karsten's premium is on  accuracy. 

It also appeared there were a lot of places on thse fairways you don't want to be for your approach shot. 

Don't know what team this favors.  In my competitive days, the very good college players from the US Southwest were, almost of necessity, guys who hit long, low draws to cope with Southwest winds and well-baked fairways.  That ball flight on this course, from what I saw, will get you on a plane flight home Saturday night.

---

One more re accuracy vs. distance.  There are many holes at Karsten Creek where a ball not far off the fairway can be in virtually unplayable lie.  I'm not sure when I last saw a course where so many players were having trouble finding their ball, and then trying to figure what do once they made the discovery.  That may help explain why the rounds in this event took so long.

[bbm233]

I'd love to see us get to match play, and we did manage to outplay two top ten teams (LSU and Alabama) in the Regionals, but I hope no casual Stanford fans expect that Stanford should advance.  It's just not a very talented team. 

This course, however, favors us relative to many of the top 20 teams.  It inflicts much heavier penalties on bad shots--doubles and triples--and doesn't offer up a lot of birdie chances.  The team that can grind out a lot of pars and avoid the woods and the wrong parts of these greens has an advantage. 

It also places a premium on reading speed; if someone kept a tally of three putts (and four putts), this course probably lapped the previous NCAA record.  

The afternoon rounds could get especially wicked if the wind and heat go up. 

It's a terrific test.  (I amend my earlier nasty comments about Tom Fazio.)  If we get into the final eight, it's a sign that we're a damn good team that just plays too many courses where intelligence,  course management, patience/emotional control, and accuracy matter too little.

Getting to the championships has already exceeded my expectations for the team. I was surprised how well they did at regionals - Wu showing the form he had last fall was a pleasant surprise, and I didn't think Snyder had enough power to shoot under par on a championship setup (although I am still concerned that the course in Stockton isn't really a good indicator for this weekend). If both of those things continue, they might get to play four days. I agree that match play is very, very unlikely.

[bbm233]

I'd love to see us get to match play, and we did manage to outplay two top ten teams (LSU and Alabama) in the Regionals, but I hope no casual Stanford fans expect that Stanford should advance.  It's just not a very talented team. 

This course, however, favors us relative to many of the top 20 teams.  It inflicts much heavier penalties on bad shots--doubles and triples--and doesn't offer up a lot of birdie chances.  The team that can grind out a lot of pars and avoid the woods and the wrong parts of these greens has an advantage. 

It also places a premium on reading speed; if someone kept a tally of three putts (and four putts), this course probably lapped the previous NCAA record.  

The afternoon rounds could get especially wicked if the wind and heat go up. 

It's a terrific test.  (I amend my earlier nasty comments about Tom Fazio.)  If we get into the final eight, it's a sign that we're a damn good team that just plays too many courses where intelligence,  course management, patience/emotional control, and accuracy matter too little.

Getting to the championships has already exceeded my expectations for the team. I was surprised how well they did at regionals - Wu showing the form he had last fall was a pleasant surprise, and I didn't think Snyder had enough power to shoot under par on a championship setup (although I am still concerned that the course in Stockton isn't really a good indicator for this weekend). If both of those things continue, they might get to play four days. I agree that match play is very, very unlikely.

[Hulk01]

And slide, my comment about our relatively weak recruiting was meant to refer only to the recruit classes that followed Maverick, Virat, and Jim Liu.  But the incoming class sounds promising, particuarly the two foreign players.

And in 2020, we get Karl Vilips, a bona fide phenom and the #1 in his class.  That's also the year we welcome the current #2 girl's junior player, Rachel Heck, and, I assume, the phenom of phenoms, Lucy Li of Redwood Shores.  (I may already have posted this. I think she might finish her senior year requirements a year early--she's on a Stanford-created home schooling program--and arrive in the fall of 2019 instead.)  

GolfWeek's incoming (fall 2018) top college mens recruitng classes
(with current team national ranking following)
    SMU
    Florida 7
    Stanford 17 (Fred Lee (Australia), Daniel Ng (New York), and Daniel Turbaneyev (Khazikstan)
    Texas 15
    LSU  8
    UCLA  
    Alabama  6

[Hulk01]

And slide, my comment about our relatively weak recruiting was meant to refer only to the recruit classes that followed Maverick, Virat, and Jim Liu.  But the incoming class sounds promising, particuarly the two foreign players.

And in 2020, we get Karl Vilips, a bona fide phenom and the #1 in his class.  That's also the year we welcome the current #2 girl's junior player, Rachel Heck, and, I assume, the phenom of phenoms, Lucy Li of Redwood Shores.  (I may already have posted this. I think she might finish her senior year requirements a year early--she's on a Stanford-created home schooling program--and arrive in the fall of 2019 instead.)  

GolfWeek's incoming (fall 2018) top college mens recruitng classes
(with current team national ranking following)
    SMU
    Florida 7
    Stanford 17 (Fred Lee (Australia), Daniel Ng (New York), and Daniel Turbaneyev (Khazikstan)
    Texas 15
    LSU  8
    UCLA  
    Alabama  6

[Spiny_Norman]

BYU was on the golf course today playing what will be their 3rd round since they don't compete on Sundays. But they were called off the course after playing only a few holes because of severe weather. Heavy rain, lightning, hail and up to 50 mph winds. They are unlikely to complete their round today. How can the NCAA fit in their 3rd round tomorrow or Saturday with 3rd round tees and pin positions? The golf course will be occupied from dawn to dusk front and back 9s with Round 1 and Round 2 golfers. This is a logistical problem for the NCAA. They cannot determine the 3rd round cut until BYU completes its 3rd round.

Weather forecast for tomorrow - afternoon thunderstorms. Stanford should be off the course by then. And they may benefit from softer greens depending on the amount of rain today and this evening.

[Spiny_Norman]

BYU was on the golf course today playing what will be their 3rd round since they don't compete on Sundays. But they were called off the course after playing only a few holes because of severe weather. Heavy rain, lightning, hail and up to 50 mph winds. They are unlikely to complete their round today. How can the NCAA fit in their 3rd round tomorrow or Saturday with 3rd round tees and pin positions? The golf course will be occupied from dawn to dusk front and back 9s with Round 1 and Round 2 golfers. This is a logistical problem for the NCAA. They cannot determine the 3rd round cut until BYU completes its 3rd round.

Weather forecast for tomorrow - afternoon thunderstorms. Stanford should be off the course by then. And they may benefit from softer greens depending on the amount of rain today and this evening.