07-31-2018, 06:03 AM
(07-30-2018, 10:37 PM)CTcard Wrote: I am not exactly sure who the we is that you are referring to, but for the most part the Stanford fan base was highly skeptical of Chryst going into the 2017 season. This was mostly because his three good games came against atrocious defenses, but also because he had collapsed into inaccuracy problems at several points in 2016. I myself argued on this board, that Chryst's good games were still good games even if the defenses were bad - but was also wary about what he had established and his consistency.Perhaps it is only my perception, but it seemed to me that there was a clear plurality of people on this board making your argument about good games without voicing the associated caveats. It could be that there were more doubts present than were voiced. It seemed somehow disloyal to say that Chryst was not the answer when he was winning games, so people didn't. Granted, there were exceptions to this "trend". I distinctly recall most people saying Chryst did great against NC until he got hurt, which just wasn't so IMHO.
(07-30-2018, 10:37 PM)CTcard Wrote: Costello does look a lot better than Chryst to me, largely for the reasons listed above but perhaps even moreso because he doesn't seem to go into a funk the way Chryst did from time to time.I tend to agree that Costello LOOKS much better than Chryst. He is decisive. How accurate he can/will be is still a question. At least he doesn't seem to be drilling for oil. It is probably inevitable that a QB will look better against a poor defense than he will against a very good one (Chryst vs OSU obviously proves this is not universally true). However, sometimes guys who are decisive throw to the wrong team a lot. So far, Costello hasn't done that. While he didn't go into a "funk", the wheels did come off pretty badly against TCU. Certainly not totally "his fault", but he wasn't the "solution" either. Yes, TCU was a good team, but those are the guys we want to beat. Against WSU, I think Shaw is correct that he had Costello playing to conservatively, so I give KJ a pass there. So, my feeling on KJ is lots of optimism coupled with lots of "We will see".
If you want a statistic on the point, I'd go with:
In 2016 Chryst played the predominant part of five games, with two very poor performances. Four of the five were against very poor defenses, with OSU being the best at #79.
In 2017 Costello played the predominant part of eight games with one very poor performance. The poor performance was against a very good defense (WSU - #16 overall, #7 pass defense PER). Five of the defenses he faced were better than the best defense Chryst saw in 2016, and all were better than the second best defense Chryst saw.
(07-30-2018, 10:37 PM)CTcard Wrote: -----Chapman has done what they asked him to do, and he has done it well. They had Penny They wanted to run the ball, just like we want to run the ball. They were able to do so for the most part, so the ball wasn't going to be in the air that much. As you pointed out, the previous year they asked more of him, and they got it. This year, while it is expected they will still have a good run game, they are expected to throw more. So far, Chapman has done what he was asked to do. He has also pulled them out of some tight spots, although not so much last year. Do I think KJ has a higher upside? Probably. But he hasn't demonstrated that he is able to raise his level of play to win games when things are not going well, at least not yet. So, I can't get behind the assertion that KJ is "better" than Chapman in the context of the next game. Not enough data on KJ.
To the broader point, I would agree that one cannot declare Costello better without examining the other guy.
San Diego hasn't thrown the ball much under Chapman, averaging under 19 attempts per game for three straight years. For comparison, last year Stanford threw 25.9 times per game.
Chapman has been pretty efficient - roughly what Shaw wants from a QB. Last year Chapman had an efficiency rating of 139.2 just about dead even with Costello at 139.5. The previous year Chapman came in at 149.2.
An interesting (infuriating?) bit about Chapman was that his game versus Stanford was his career high in attempts and completions, his only game with over 20 completions ... only game over 16 completions for that matter.
