[ColoradoTree]

It's not clear to me whether this is an official ITA tournament (and thus whether ranking points will be available), but Michaela Gordon will get a chance to prove herself against some of the best in women's college tennis at a tournament--called the 2018 Blizzard Wild Card--at the USTA National Campus in Orlando, FL starting this weekend. The structure will be the same as the WTA and ATP tour finals, if you're familiar with those events. If you're not: the 8-player field will be divided into two groups, with each player getting matches against the other 3 players in her group. The top two move onto a 4-player knockout round--semifinals and the championship match. The winner gets a wild card into the main draw of a $60K ITF tournament sometime in 2019 as well as a spot on the USTA Collegiate National Team, which unlocks grant money to travel to professional tournaments and USTA Player Development coaching. 

Here's the official website: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/ho...-card.html. Looks like there will be live scoring and streaming for the semifinals and final, and just live streaming for round robin play.  

It's a great field.  In addition to Gordon, the following players will be there:

#37 Kelly Chen (Sophomore, Duke)
#4 Sara Daavettila (Junior, UNC)
#20 Salma Ewing (Freshman, USC)
#2 Makenna Jones (Junior, UNC)
#106 Ashley Lahey (Junior, Pepperdine)
#27 Brienne Minor (Senior, Michigan)
#5 Sophie Whittle (Senior, Gonzaga)

As it's a USTA tournament, only American players are participating. Gordon is the 2nd-lowest-ranked player in this group, by the most recent rankings, at least, where she is #103. But if we use this season's preseason rankings as a guide, she's the 3rd highest (#10, vs. #2 Jones, #4 Lahey, #12 Chen, #27 Daavettila, #35 Whittle, and #119 Minor, while Ewing was the #5 freshman/newcomer). By UTR, Gordon is the #6 player here (with 11.73), behind Jones (11.96), Whittle (11.91), Lahey (11.87), Chen (11.85), and Daavettila (11.81), and ahead of Ewing (11.72) and Minor (11.63). These will all be tough matches and most of them will see Michaela as a slight underdog, but in any event, it's a great opportunity for her to challenge herself before we get back into the swing of things in the spring season. 

Matches start at 12:00pm Pacific on Saturday, with the remaining round robin matches on Sunday at 7am and 1pm. Women's semifinal and consolation matches are at 7am on Monday, 12/17, with the main draw and consolation finals at 7am on Tuesday, 12/18. 

I'll comment on expectations once we see the draws, but it's safe to say that making the semifinals would be a tremendous result for her.

[ColoradoTree]

It's not clear to me whether this is an official ITA tournament (and thus whether ranking points will be available), but Michaela Gordon will get a chance to prove herself against some of the best in women's college tennis at a tournament--called the 2018 Blizzard Wild Card--at the USTA National Campus in Orlando, FL starting this weekend. The structure will be the same as the WTA and ATP tour finals, if you're familiar with those events. If you're not: the 8-player field will be divided into two groups, with each player getting matches against the other 3 players in her group. The top two move onto a 4-player knockout round--semifinals and the championship match. The winner gets a wild card into the main draw of a $60K ITF tournament sometime in 2019 as well as a spot on the USTA Collegiate National Team, which unlocks grant money to travel to professional tournaments and USTA Player Development coaching. 

Here's the official website: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/ho...-card.html. Looks like there will be live scoring and streaming for the semifinals and final, and just live streaming for round robin play.  

It's a great field.  In addition to Gordon, the following players will be there:

#37 Kelly Chen (Sophomore, Duke)
#4 Sara Daavettila (Junior, UNC)
#20 Salma Ewing (Freshman, USC)
#2 Makenna Jones (Junior, UNC)
#106 Ashley Lahey (Junior, Pepperdine)
#27 Brienne Minor (Senior, Michigan)
#5 Sophie Whittle (Senior, Gonzaga)

As it's a USTA tournament, only American players are participating. Gordon is the 2nd-lowest-ranked player in this group, by the most recent rankings, at least, where she is #103. But if we use this season's preseason rankings as a guide, she's the 3rd highest (#10, vs. #2 Jones, #4 Lahey, #12 Chen, #27 Daavettila, #35 Whittle, and #119 Minor, while Ewing was the #5 freshman/newcomer). By UTR, Gordon is the #6 player here (with 11.73), behind Jones (11.96), Whittle (11.91), Lahey (11.87), Chen (11.85), and Daavettila (11.81), and ahead of Ewing (11.72) and Minor (11.63). These will all be tough matches and most of them will see Michaela as a slight underdog, but in any event, it's a great opportunity for her to challenge herself before we get back into the swing of things in the spring season. 

Matches start at 12:00pm Pacific on Saturday, with the remaining round robin matches on Sunday at 7am and 1pm. Women's semifinal and consolation matches are at 7am on Monday, 12/17, with the main draw and consolation finals at 7am on Tuesday, 12/18. 

I'll comment on expectations once we see the draws, but it's safe to say that making the semifinals would be a tremendous result for her.

[ColoradoTree]

FYI, Gordon was placed in a group with Makenna Jones, Kelly Chen, and Brienne Minor.  

She lost the opener to Makenna Jones 7-5, 5-7, 13-11 (that's a match tiebreak, not a Wimbledon-style decisive set), but came back to roll over Michigan's Brienne Minor, 6-2, 6-3, and held on in a tight one to beat Duke's Kelly Chen 7-6, 2-6, 10-4 to close out round robin play.  Given the other results (see below), that put Gordon into the semifinals! As I said above, this is a great result, and my only hope is that these match wins count for rankings purposes, because it'll get Gordon right back up where she should be. Even if they don't, though, it's a great confidence boost for Gordon to close out 2018.

Round Robin

First Match

Jones d. Gordon 7-5, 5-7, 13-11
Chen d. Minor 6-3, 6-4

Second Match

Chen d. Jones 6-0, 6-1 (um, what?)
Gordon d. Minor 6-2, 6-3

Third Match

Gordon d. Chen 7-6, 2-6, 10-4
Minor d. Jones 3-6, 6-3, 10-6

Thus, Gordon and Chen each finish 2-1 to advance to the semifinals (that match tiebreak was crucial for Gordon), while Minor and Jones both went 1-2. Tennis is a weird sport sometimes. Gordon loses to Jones (which is a perfectly fine loss, as Jones is the #2 player in the country), but Jones loses to both other players, and Gordon beats both of them. *shrugs*

Semifinals

Advancing from the other group are Pepperdine's Ashley Lahey and Gonzaga's Sophie Whittle, and those matches are going on right now! Gordon is playing Lahey on Court 3, while Chen and Whittle are matched up on Court 1.  You can live stream the matches here: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/home/watch.html

Live scoring is available here: 
http://www2.tennisticker.de/usa/ustanc/s...ournid=385

---

FYI, the streaming is a couple minutes behind live scoring, so here's where things stand at the moment:

Gordon won her first set 6-4, and just broke Lahey to go up 3-1 in the second!

Over at the other semifinal, Whittle and Chen traded 6-3 sets and will play a decider, though it's unclear at the moment whether they've transitioned from playing a deciding match tiebreaker or whether they'll play a full set.

---

Gordon consolidates the break and she's up 4-1, with Lahey to serve to stop the bleeding. And she does just that, so Gordon will serve up a set and a break at 4-2.

---

No problem, and it's 5-2. Gordon's serve is working well, and she holds with ease, moving Lahey around the court and forcing Lahey into tough shots that lead to errors. She recognizes Lahey is getting a little frustrated and not quite hitting her spots, so she's not playing too aggressively, but still using the full court. A couple of those points were just sloppy from Lahey, but the final point was clinical from Gordon. I'm sure Gordon has noticed Lahey's not as sharp as she can be (Lahey is a top 10-caliber player), so it's sort of like a batter seeing a pitcher that's struggling with control--stay in there, but make him throw strikes.

---

And there it is! Gordon comes back from 30-15 down to win three straight points to break Lahey to close out the match 6-4, 6-2! What a great run this is for Michaela. Those Chen and Minor wins are great for rankings (if they count), and Lahey's ranking will certainly climb over the course of the year, though perhaps not to the #4 preseason ranking she held, which will keep making this result look better.

The third set in the Chen-Whittle semifinal rages on, with Whittle about to serve with the set tied at 3-3. Let's see that one go the distance! The final will be at 7am Pacific tomorrow, so if you want to watch, you'll have to get up early. If any alums don't have to work and live in the Orlando area, the USTA National Campus is a sprawling monument to tennis with hundreds of courts, so it would be a cool place to check out anyway.

[ColoradoTree]

FYI, Gordon was placed in a group with Makenna Jones, Kelly Chen, and Brienne Minor.  

She lost the opener to Makenna Jones 7-5, 5-7, 13-11 (that's a match tiebreak, not a Wimbledon-style decisive set), but came back to roll over Michigan's Brienne Minor, 6-2, 6-3, and held on in a tight one to beat Duke's Kelly Chen 7-6, 2-6, 10-4 to close out round robin play.  Given the other results (see below), that put Gordon into the semifinals! As I said above, this is a great result, and my only hope is that these match wins count for rankings purposes, because it'll get Gordon right back up where she should be. Even if they don't, though, it's a great confidence boost for Gordon to close out 2018.

Round Robin

First Match

Jones d. Gordon 7-5, 5-7, 13-11
Chen d. Minor 6-3, 6-4

Second Match

Chen d. Jones 6-0, 6-1 (um, what?)
Gordon d. Minor 6-2, 6-3

Third Match

Gordon d. Chen 7-6, 2-6, 10-4
Minor d. Jones 3-6, 6-3, 10-6

Thus, Gordon and Chen each finish 2-1 to advance to the semifinals (that match tiebreak was crucial for Gordon), while Minor and Jones both went 1-2. Tennis is a weird sport sometimes. Gordon loses to Jones (which is a perfectly fine loss, as Jones is the #2 player in the country), but Jones loses to both other players, and Gordon beats both of them. *shrugs*

Semifinals

Advancing from the other group are Pepperdine's Ashley Lahey and Gonzaga's Sophie Whittle, and those matches are going on right now! Gordon is playing Lahey on Court 3, while Chen and Whittle are matched up on Court 1.  You can live stream the matches here: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/home/watch.html

Live scoring is available here: 
http://www2.tennisticker.de/usa/ustanc/s...ournid=385

---

FYI, the streaming is a couple minutes behind live scoring, so here's where things stand at the moment:

Gordon won her first set 6-4, and just broke Lahey to go up 3-1 in the second!

Over at the other semifinal, Whittle and Chen traded 6-3 sets and will play a decider, though it's unclear at the moment whether they've transitioned from playing a deciding match tiebreaker or whether they'll play a full set.

---

Gordon consolidates the break and she's up 4-1, with Lahey to serve to stop the bleeding. And she does just that, so Gordon will serve up a set and a break at 4-2.

---

No problem, and it's 5-2. Gordon's serve is working well, and she holds with ease, moving Lahey around the court and forcing Lahey into tough shots that lead to errors. She recognizes Lahey is getting a little frustrated and not quite hitting her spots, so she's not playing too aggressively, but still using the full court. A couple of those points were just sloppy from Lahey, but the final point was clinical from Gordon. I'm sure Gordon has noticed Lahey's not as sharp as she can be (Lahey is a top 10-caliber player), so it's sort of like a batter seeing a pitcher that's struggling with control--stay in there, but make him throw strikes.

---

And there it is! Gordon comes back from 30-15 down to win three straight points to break Lahey to close out the match 6-4, 6-2! What a great run this is for Michaela. Those Chen and Minor wins are great for rankings (if they count), and Lahey's ranking will certainly climb over the course of the year, though perhaps not to the #4 preseason ranking she held, which will keep making this result look better.

The third set in the Chen-Whittle semifinal rages on, with Whittle about to serve with the set tied at 3-3. Let's see that one go the distance! The final will be at 7am Pacific tomorrow, so if you want to watch, you'll have to get up early. If any alums don't have to work and live in the Orlando area, the USTA National Campus is a sprawling monument to tennis with hundreds of courts, so it would be a cool place to check out anyway.

[ColoradoTree]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

[ColoradoTree]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

[BobK]

Thanks for the awesome report

[BobK]

Thanks for the awesome report

[BostonCard]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

Conditional on winning the first game, I would say that there is a slightly higher probability of winning the second match than if you hadn't shown an ability to beat your opponent once already.  The challenge is that when people say "it's hard to win rematches in any sport" what they mean is that it is tougher to win two or more games against the same opponent than it is to win a single game.

BC

[BostonCard]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

Conditional on winning the first game, I would say that there is a slightly higher probability of winning the second match than if you hadn't shown an ability to beat your opponent once already.  The challenge is that when people say "it's hard to win rematches in any sport" what they mean is that it is tougher to win two or more games against the same opponent than it is to win a single game.

BC

[ColoradoTree]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

Conditional on winning the first game, I would say that there is a slightly higher probability of winning the second match than if you hadn't shown an ability to beat your opponent once already.  The challenge is that when people say "it's hard to win rematches in any sport" what they mean is that it is tougher to win two or more games against the same opponent than it is to win a single game.

BC

Fair enough. But I don't think it's simply a question of it being hard to win two games against the opponent, as the loser of the first game also has a better sense of what didn't work the first time, so they come into the match with some adjustments already made, whereas the winner might not be as inclined to adjust right away, since what they did last time worked! I know this happens constantly in the NFL, with two games each against three divisional opponents, but the example that comes most readily to mind is the UCLA rematch in the Pac-12 championship game, where things felt much more tenuous the second time around, because UCLA had a week to work on the stuff they did that went poorly, and we needed some Kevin Hogan 4th quarter magic to put that one away.

[ColoradoTree]

Chen takes the third set 7-5, so it'll be rematch in the final, with Gordon hoping she finds the right approach once again. I'd think Gordon is a slight favorite in the final here, as she was slightly more touted coming out of high school, had a somewhat better freshman year, and, you know, she just beat her yesterday. But it's hard to win rematches in any sport.

Conditional on winning the first game, I would say that there is a slightly higher probability of winning the second match than if you hadn't shown an ability to beat your opponent once already.  The challenge is that when people say "it's hard to win rematches in any sport" what they mean is that it is tougher to win two or more games against the same opponent than it is to win a single game.

BC

Fair enough. But I don't think it's simply a question of it being hard to win two games against the opponent, as the loser of the first game also has a better sense of what didn't work the first time, so they come into the match with some adjustments already made, whereas the winner might not be as inclined to adjust right away, since what they did last time worked! I know this happens constantly in the NFL, with two games each against three divisional opponents, but the example that comes most readily to mind is the UCLA rematch in the Pac-12 championship game, where things felt much more tenuous the second time around, because UCLA had a week to work on the stuff they did that went poorly, and we needed some Kevin Hogan 4th quarter magic to put that one away.

[oldalum]

well, Chen actually won more games than Gordon in their first match, while Gordon won the most important (tiebreaker) points, so I'd call it pretty much a coin flip going into the final, at least based just on the first match.

[oldalum]

well, Chen actually won more games than Gordon in their first match, while Gordon won the most important (tiebreaker) points, so I'd call it pretty much a coin flip going into the final, at least based just on the first match.

[ColoradoTree]

Gordon kicks things off by breaking Chen on deuce point for an early 1-0 lead. But Chen breaks back at love to level things at 1-1, and then promptly consolidates to go up 2-1. Gordon holds on in a great, tough, back-and-forth game to stay on serve at 2-2. But she had to work for that one.

FYI, the lag between the video and the live scoring is only a point today, rather than the game it was yesterday.

---

Gordon then turns around and breaks Chen again to take a 3-2 lead. This is some fun (albeit sloppy at times) tennis so far; let's hope it keeps up.

---

Of course, then Gordon goes and gets broken by Chen to get back on serve at 3-3, Chen holds for a 4-3 lead, and breaks again to go up 5-3. Ugh. Gordon will need to get a third break of Chen's serve to keep this set alive, and then hold to get things level again.

---

Nope. Chen holds at love to finish off a 4-game streak to take the first set 6-3. Gordon will serve to open the second, so let's hope she shakes this off!

[ColoradoTree]

Gordon kicks things off by breaking Chen on deuce point for an early 1-0 lead. But Chen breaks back at love to level things at 1-1, and then promptly consolidates to go up 2-1. Gordon holds on in a great, tough, back-and-forth game to stay on serve at 2-2. But she had to work for that one.

FYI, the lag between the video and the live scoring is only a point today, rather than the game it was yesterday.

---

Gordon then turns around and breaks Chen again to take a 3-2 lead. This is some fun (albeit sloppy at times) tennis so far; let's hope it keeps up.

---

Of course, then Gordon goes and gets broken by Chen to get back on serve at 3-3, Chen holds for a 4-3 lead, and breaks again to go up 5-3. Ugh. Gordon will need to get a third break of Chen's serve to keep this set alive, and then hold to get things level again.

---

Nope. Chen holds at love to finish off a 4-game streak to take the first set 6-3. Gordon will serve to open the second, so let's hope she shakes this off!

[ColoradoTree]

Spoiler alert: she shook it off, taking the second set 6-4. (I had a meeting, so please forgive the lack of updates.)

Gordon is now cruising in the third set, up 4-0. She'll serve next.

---

A terrific service game--moving Chen around the court, keeping her off balance, mixing in drop shots and lobs to great effect, coming to the net when called for--and Gordon is up 5-0. Chen will serve to stay in the match.

---

Man alive, we're not going to see many better points than Gordon just played to open Chen's service game. Had Chen on her heels, moved her around masterfully, painted lines on both sides, and ultimately forcing the error. Fun to watch her play this well.

And that's it! Gordon takes it 3-6, 6-4, 6-0, turning on the jets when it mattered most. Match point was a great forehand down the line, forcing Chen to just hack at it to keep it in play, but she popped it up and Gordon won the title with an overhead!

[ColoradoTree]

Spoiler alert: she shook it off, taking the second set 6-4. (I had a meeting, so please forgive the lack of updates.)

Gordon is now cruising in the third set, up 4-0. She'll serve next.

---

A terrific service game--moving Chen around the court, keeping her off balance, mixing in drop shots and lobs to great effect, coming to the net when called for--and Gordon is up 5-0. Chen will serve to stay in the match.

---

Man alive, we're not going to see many better points than Gordon just played to open Chen's service game. Had Chen on her heels, moved her around masterfully, painted lines on both sides, and ultimately forcing the error. Fun to watch her play this well.

And that's it! Gordon takes it 3-6, 6-4, 6-0, turning on the jets when it mattered most. Match point was a great forehand down the line, forcing Chen to just hack at it to keep it in play, but she popped it up and Gordon won the title with an overhead!

[ColoradoTree]

So, Gordon leaves this tournament with:

* A 4-1 record
* Wins over the #4, #12 (twice!), and #119 players in the country (preseason committee rankings);
* Wins over the #27, #37 (twice!), and #106 players in the country (current, limited-data automated rankings);
* A loss to the #2 player in the country;
* Pulled off three UTR upsets, twice over Chen and also over Lahey; was not upset herself, taking care of Minor;
* Pulled off three upsets by preseason rankings; was not upset herself, taking care of Minor;
* Pulled off three upsets by current rankings; was not upset herself, taking care of Lahey (that Gordon is 103 and Lahey is 106 is laughable--those are both top 10 players); 
* A spot on the USTA Collegiate National Team;
* Access to USTA Player Development in-depth coaching; and
* A wild card to a $60K ITF tournament sometime in 2019.

Not a bad few days!  Not sure if the wins will count toward the rankings (this was a USTA event, not an ITA event, so I don't know if the ITA sanctioned it), but it'll be a boon for Gordon and her confidence at a minimum.

[ColoradoTree]

So, Gordon leaves this tournament with:

* A 4-1 record
* Wins over the #4, #12 (twice!), and #119 players in the country (preseason committee rankings);
* Wins over the #27, #37 (twice!), and #106 players in the country (current, limited-data automated rankings);
* A loss to the #2 player in the country;
* Pulled off three UTR upsets, twice over Chen and also over Lahey; was not upset herself, taking care of Minor;
* Pulled off three upsets by preseason rankings; was not upset herself, taking care of Minor;
* Pulled off three upsets by current rankings; was not upset herself, taking care of Lahey (that Gordon is 103 and Lahey is 106 is laughable--those are both top 10 players); 
* A spot on the USTA Collegiate National Team;
* Access to USTA Player Development in-depth coaching; and
* A wild card to a $60K ITF tournament sometime in 2019.

Not a bad few days!  Not sure if the wins will count toward the rankings (this was a USTA event, not an ITA event, so I don't know if the ITA sanctioned it), but it'll be a boon for Gordon and her confidence at a minimum.