(01-02-2019, 05:57 PM)terry Wrote: The title of this thread, "Sun Bowl takeaways," made me realize that there actually weren't any "takeaways" -- i.e. turnovers -- in the Sun Bowl.
That started me wondering about why Stanford was able to win despite being on the wrong end of the stats, such as yards (208-344) and first downs (12-18).
Often, when a team gets out-gained by 136 yards but wins anyway, it's because of turnovers. Or maybe blocked punts, or long kick returns, or something of that nature. Games like that can be viewed as kind of fluky.
But that didn't really happen here. There were no turnovers, no long returns, and no big special teams plays. Stanford didn't score any TDs on a short field. Pitt didn't shoot itself in the foot with a raft of penalties or killer turnovers.
Rather, Stanford's defense gave some ground, but stiffened when needed and kept Pitt out of the end zone, forcing punts or FG attempts. Stanford's offense didn't do much, but did manage to produce a couple of long drives. And that was enough.
It's true that Stanford got the winning TD on a fluky play, but the TD wasn't undeserved. Stanford's scoring play came on a 1st-and-goal at the 2 yard line. Overwhelmingly, that down and distance results in a TD. Stanford already had done most of the hard work on that drive and really "deserved" the TD. A TD in that situation was to be expected. It just came about in an unexpected way. :-)
Yes, good point. Pitt was forced to kick field goals twice after making it to within the Stanford 10 yard line, and missed a long-ish field goal ("just a bit outside"). Had it converted either of those two field goals into touchdowns or had made its field goal, it likely would have won (maybe; after all, we kneeled down having gotten the ball to the Pitt 13 yard line, so we could have kicked a game-tying or winning field goal, though under that situation, Pitt punts in the previous drive instead of turning the ball over on downs; counterfactuals are hard).
Here are the key plays:
Early in the first quarter, with the game scoreless, Pitt drives easily to the Stanford 31. They get 3 yards to make it second and 7 at the 28. From there, they move backwards and out of field goal range. A second down run loses them two yards and on third and 9, Okereke sacks Pickett for a loss of 10 yards. Pitt punted from the 40. Had they gained a couple more yards instead of losing yards, they had a makeable field goal. Even two runs into the pile for no gain would have made it a 45 yard field goal (their field goal kicker Kessman was 4/5 from 40-49 yards, and surprisingly 4/5 from 50+ yards, his only miss being against us). But the Okereke sack put it well out of field goal range.
Towards the end of the first quarter, Pitt drove to the Stanford 10 yard line. On first and goal from the ten, we stop them for one yard. On second and goal, Davis gets to the 4 yard line. On third and goal, Pitt elected to pass instead of run, and Jordan Fox sacks him (I think after Toohill destroys the pocket) for a 7 yard loss. Pitt settles for a 29 yard field goal to go up 3-0.
On Pitt's second drive of the third quarter, they started in good field position after Bailey shanked his punt. Kenny Pickett's 41 yard completion gave Pitt first and goal from the Stanford 9. The first run nets three yards and makes it second and goal from the six. Then we stuff Hall for a loss of four yards making it third and goal from the 10. Kenny Pickett's pass is incomplete, and Pitt is again forced to settle for a field goal.
Finally, after we took the lead, Pitt drove the ball to our 35 yard line on a PI, and Hall rushes of 19, 7, and 8 yards. Strangely, despite Pitt gashing us on the run, they elected to pass, and Pickett threw two incompletions, setting up third and 10. Pickett fumbles the ball, but falls on it for a two yard loss. The ensuing 55 yard field goal is very wide right, Kessman's first and only miss of the year from over 50 yards.
The game is a bit like Stanford's game at home against USC in 2014. WE outgained the Trojans 413 to 291, but we:
* Missed 49-yard field goal after making it to the USC 21 (pushed back by a pair of penalties)
* Punted from the USC 29 (after having second and six from the USC 13 pushed back by a fumble)
* Settled for a 33 yard field goal (after having third and one from the seven; two penalties made it third and 10)
* Missed 26 yard field goal (that wasted a 44 yard Ty Montgomery punt return)
* Turned the ball over on downs from the USC 3 (on fourth and one)
* Fumbled on first and ten from the USC 32 (after Ty Montgomery returned the kickoff to the USC 47 and the refs tagged on another 15 yards for an SC personal foul)
* Punted from the USC 32 (after we had third and 4 from the USC 23, pushed back by another penalty)
* Were sacked and fumbled from the USC 25 on third and 6.
We wound up losing that game 13-10.
BC