[Mick]

This is the sound of the unemployment rate going up a tenth of a point.  Macy's furloughed most of their 130,000 employees.

That will be interesting.  Of the 130,000 furloughed, how many will be able and willing to return to work when Macy's reopens, either next month or next year?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavi...-week.html

Mine's happening tomorrow.  10% staff cuts, 15% pay cuts for everyone remaining.  This is just round one.

[Mick]

This is the sound of the unemployment rate going up a tenth of a point.  Macy's furloughed most of their 130,000 employees.

That will be interesting.  Of the 130,000 furloughed, how many will be able and willing to return to work when Macy's reopens, either next month or next year?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavi...-week.html

Mine's happening tomorrow.  10% staff cuts, 15% pay cuts for everyone remaining.  This is just round one.

[BostonCard]

Wow, Macy's was a continuing entity before this pandemic?  Who knew!

I am assuming that the Covid-19 will be the final blow for the "retail apocalypse"; retailers were already in a precarious position even before the pandemic will not come back.  It might leave even some of the stronger retailers in trouble.  On the flip side, those who survive might see a cleared landscape on the other side.  Of course the 10,000 lb gorilla (Amazon) will still be there, but I expect that there will always be a segment of the population that will prefer to shop in person.

There are a few places that have announced they were hiring: Amazon (of course), Walmart, Albertson's, Instacart... it won't make up for the job losses in the stores that are closing.  The big question is whether there will be a quick rehire of laid off workers or if there will be a long recovery road.  After the financial crisis, it took a long time to get back to per-recession employment levels.

BC

[BostonCard]

Wow, Macy's was a continuing entity before this pandemic?  Who knew!

I am assuming that the Covid-19 will be the final blow for the "retail apocalypse"; retailers were already in a precarious position even before the pandemic will not come back.  It might leave even some of the stronger retailers in trouble.  On the flip side, those who survive might see a cleared landscape on the other side.  Of course the 10,000 lb gorilla (Amazon) will still be there, but I expect that there will always be a segment of the population that will prefer to shop in person.

There are a few places that have announced they were hiring: Amazon (of course), Walmart, Albertson's, Instacart... it won't make up for the job losses in the stores that are closing.  The big question is whether there will be a quick rehire of laid off workers or if there will be a long recovery road.  After the financial crisis, it took a long time to get back to per-recession employment levels.

BC

[Farm93]

Many brick and mortar retailers are done at this point.  So many of them had a lot of debt and declining revenue before this pandemic.   

For the SF Bay Area, I would guess most of that commercial real estate will ultimately be zoned for multi-family residential.   Getting new residential property will be OK for the region.

In other places in the USA the zoning conversion is not needed, so the spaces will sit vacant for several years.   Local types may blame the pandemic, POTUS-45 or POTUS-46, but the truth will be most were close to death for at least the last decade. 

The USA 2024 could look really different than USA 2019.

[Farm93]

Many brick and mortar retailers are done at this point.  So many of them had a lot of debt and declining revenue before this pandemic.   

For the SF Bay Area, I would guess most of that commercial real estate will ultimately be zoned for multi-family residential.   Getting new residential property will be OK for the region.

In other places in the USA the zoning conversion is not needed, so the spaces will sit vacant for several years.   Local types may blame the pandemic, POTUS-45 or POTUS-46, but the truth will be most were close to death for at least the last decade. 

The USA 2024 could look really different than USA 2019.

[M T]

Getting new residential property will be OK for the [SF Bay Area] region.

I'm not sure I agree with that.  More people = more traffic.

I thought I'd mention this unreviewed pre-print:
Air Pollution Reduction and Mortality Benefit during the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

Our findings show that interventions to contain the COVID-19 outbreak led to air quality improvements that brought health benefits which outnumbered the confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 in China

[M T]

Getting new residential property will be OK for the [SF Bay Area] region.

I'm not sure I agree with that.  More people = more traffic.

I thought I'd mention this unreviewed pre-print:
Air Pollution Reduction and Mortality Benefit during the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

Our findings show that interventions to contain the COVID-19 outbreak led to air quality improvements that brought health benefits which outnumbered the confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 in China

[BostonCard]

Not necessarily.  If you build more closer to where jobs are, then the person living in those new houses has a 10 mile commute instead of a 40 mile commute from the East Bay, and you actually wind up with less traffic.  If you do it even better, and build the housing near public transport, you might even remove cars from the road.

BC

[BostonCard]

Not necessarily.  If you build more closer to where jobs are, then the person living in those new houses has a 10 mile commute instead of a 40 mile commute from the East Bay, and you actually wind up with less traffic.  If you do it even better, and build the housing near public transport, you might even remove cars from the road.

BC

[JustAnotherFan]

Many brick and mortar retailers are done at this point.  So many of them had a lot of debt and declining revenue before this pandemic.   

For the SF Bay Area, I would guess most of that commercial real estate will ultimately be zoned for multi-family residential.   Getting new residential property will be OK for the region.

In other places in the USA the zoning conversion is not needed, so the spaces will sit vacant for several years.   Local types may blame the pandemic, POTUS-45 or POTUS-46, but the truth will be most were close to death for at least the last decade. 

The USA 2024 could look really different than USA 2019.

Wouldn't be surprised if they blame POTUS-44.

Being a first mover on cheap retail space by converting it to co-working space may be a really good move in about 6 months.

[JustAnotherFan]

Many brick and mortar retailers are done at this point.  So many of them had a lot of debt and declining revenue before this pandemic.   

For the SF Bay Area, I would guess most of that commercial real estate will ultimately be zoned for multi-family residential.   Getting new residential property will be OK for the region.

In other places in the USA the zoning conversion is not needed, so the spaces will sit vacant for several years.   Local types may blame the pandemic, POTUS-45 or POTUS-46, but the truth will be most were close to death for at least the last decade. 

The USA 2024 could look really different than USA 2019.

Wouldn't be surprised if they blame POTUS-44.

Being a first mover on cheap retail space by converting it to co-working space may be a really good move in about 6 months.

[OutsiderFan]

This is the sound of the unemployment rate going up a tenth of a point.  Macy's furloughed most of their 130,000 employees.

That will be interesting.  Of the 130,000 furloughed, how many will be able and willing to return to work when Macy's reopens, either next month or next year?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavi...-week.html

Mine's happening tomorrow.  10% staff cuts, 15% pay cuts for everyone remaining.  This is just round one.

I was just to.d The Hartford has lost 50% of its billings as small commercial (SME) and group benefits take a beating from business shutting down and layoffs. Businesses won’t pay premiums and there ar a lot less people to offer benefits when they aren’t employees.

Just saw a report the Fed expects unemployment to hit 32%, with 47 million out of work This is depression territory. Don’t think Johny will be getting the G.I. Joe with the king fu grip this year.

The sad thing about this is this too didn’t have to be this way. The economy built on massive debt and low interest rates can’t survive a slow down. Most businesses don’t have cash reserves to ride out a dry spell, and are already in debt unable to make current payments. No way are these over leveraged companies going to get new financing. Might be a good time to become a bankruptcy lawyer. They will be needed like healthcare workers being fast-tracked into service before they are done with school due to staffing shortages.

[OutsiderFan]

This is the sound of the unemployment rate going up a tenth of a point.  Macy's furloughed most of their 130,000 employees.

That will be interesting.  Of the 130,000 furloughed, how many will be able and willing to return to work when Macy's reopens, either next month or next year?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavi...-week.html

Mine's happening tomorrow.  10% staff cuts, 15% pay cuts for everyone remaining.  This is just round one.

I was just to.d The Hartford has lost 50% of its billings as small commercial (SME) and group benefits take a beating from business shutting down and layoffs. Businesses won’t pay premiums and there ar a lot less people to offer benefits when they aren’t employees.

Just saw a report the Fed expects unemployment to hit 32%, with 47 million out of work This is depression territory. Don’t think Johny will be getting the G.I. Joe with the king fu grip this year.

The sad thing about this is this too didn’t have to be this way. The economy built on massive debt and low interest rates can’t survive a slow down. Most businesses don’t have cash reserves to ride out a dry spell, and are already in debt unable to make current payments. No way are these over leveraged companies going to get new financing. Might be a good time to become a bankruptcy lawyer. They will be needed like healthcare workers being fast-tracked into service before they are done with school due to staffing shortages.

[Mick]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

[Mick]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

[dabigv13]

Let's back up and realize the current policies are in place to prevent hundreds of thousands of people from dying unnecessarily. The fact that our government is not able to do that well doesn't preclude that any government's first basic purpose is the security of its citizens.

There will be no economy if there is no functional health care system. Nobody goes to dinner or on vacation when that means you might die, and even if you don't, your parents or child or friend might.

I personally think the Scandinavian style of the state picking up payroll makes the most sense. Our government disagrees.

[dabigv13]

Let's back up and realize the current policies are in place to prevent hundreds of thousands of people from dying unnecessarily. The fact that our government is not able to do that well doesn't preclude that any government's first basic purpose is the security of its citizens.

There will be no economy if there is no functional health care system. Nobody goes to dinner or on vacation when that means you might die, and even if you don't, your parents or child or friend might.

I personally think the Scandinavian style of the state picking up payroll makes the most sense. Our government disagrees.

[baymeadows3408]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

Even if the number of cases stabilizes by summer, I'm not going to be keen on the idea of dining in restaurants, attending sporting events, or sitting in airplanes. The likelihood of another wave of COVID-19 seems great. I live in a state (Maine) that relies heavily on summer tourism, so this is going to hit restaurants, bars, breweries, and hotels hard. This summer I was supposed to have a clinical placement for my graduate program, but setting foot in a hospital seems risky and hospitals probably don't want graduate clinicians tagging along. Meanwhile, households and businesses have been loading up on debt. We desperately need rapid, readily available testing if a vaccine won't be available soon (if it comes at all).

[baymeadows3408]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

Even if the number of cases stabilizes by summer, I'm not going to be keen on the idea of dining in restaurants, attending sporting events, or sitting in airplanes. The likelihood of another wave of COVID-19 seems great. I live in a state (Maine) that relies heavily on summer tourism, so this is going to hit restaurants, bars, breweries, and hotels hard. This summer I was supposed to have a clinical placement for my graduate program, but setting foot in a hospital seems risky and hospitals probably don't want graduate clinicians tagging along. Meanwhile, households and businesses have been loading up on debt. We desperately need rapid, readily available testing if a vaccine won't be available soon (if it comes at all).

[pefloresjr]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

I assume you're talking about the Fed. and local governments and their actions to fight the pandemic through social distancing measures.  I think you are assuming there was a non "ruining" America option other than great preparation, really strong federal leadership, and unprecedented international cooperation that might have mitigated the medical impact enough to have less negative impact on the economy.  I am extremely disappointed in the Feds response to this pandemic but I am realistic enough to think that, even if they had done everything well, we and the economy would have still taken a really big hit.  I am certain that their intention is not to tear down the American economy.

I say this as a person who has not yet lost any wages from this yet but my wife runs a small association whose entire income is dependent on about a dozen small conferences a year.  They are all cancelled for the foreseeable future.  We're unhappy that the Feds' response will likely lengthen the medical crisis and therefore worsen the economic impact but we're mostly blaming the virus.   It is a natural phenomenon that is difficult to predict and certainly difficult to control even though we know pandemics will happen.  Over the years, she has had meetings cancelled because of storms, political unrest, and even volcanoes.  Sometimes bad shit happens that is beyond our control.  I am not saying that the economic impacts are not severe (I have two siblings where my both my siblings and their spouses have lost their jobs), I am saying that I think the economic impact on all of us would likely have been worse without the social distancing measures.  I can't know for sure but I am not going to act like it is ALL the fault of the decisions of the government.  

Salud,
Pete F.

[pefloresjr]

The one thing that I did not understand was that the chair of the St. Louis fed stated that he expected business to come back quickly.

I don’t understand this logic. With the current policies in place to tear down the American economy, why do people think that it will be so easy to rebuild? Don’t people understand that they ruined America and then it won’t come back? What is wrong with you people?

I assume you're talking about the Fed. and local governments and their actions to fight the pandemic through social distancing measures.  I think you are assuming there was a non "ruining" America option other than great preparation, really strong federal leadership, and unprecedented international cooperation that might have mitigated the medical impact enough to have less negative impact on the economy.  I am extremely disappointed in the Feds response to this pandemic but I am realistic enough to think that, even if they had done everything well, we and the economy would have still taken a really big hit.  I am certain that their intention is not to tear down the American economy.

I say this as a person who has not yet lost any wages from this yet but my wife runs a small association whose entire income is dependent on about a dozen small conferences a year.  They are all cancelled for the foreseeable future.  We're unhappy that the Feds' response will likely lengthen the medical crisis and therefore worsen the economic impact but we're mostly blaming the virus.   It is a natural phenomenon that is difficult to predict and certainly difficult to control even though we know pandemics will happen.  Over the years, she has had meetings cancelled because of storms, political unrest, and even volcanoes.  Sometimes bad shit happens that is beyond our control.  I am not saying that the economic impacts are not severe (I have two siblings where my both my siblings and their spouses have lost their jobs), I am saying that I think the economic impact on all of us would likely have been worse without the social distancing measures.  I can't know for sure but I am not going to act like it is ALL the fault of the decisions of the government.  

Salud,
Pete F.

[OutsiderFan]

I just learned a hotel booking site furloughed 95 of its 100 employees. The only hotels being booked around the world are in China.

[OutsiderFan]

I just learned a hotel booking site furloughed 95 of its 100 employees. The only hotels being booked around the world are in China.

[Scooter_Stepford]

I just learned a hotel booking site furloughed 95 of its 100 employees. The only hotels being booked around the world are in China.

Depending on their circumstances, to keep their staff the company could apply for an SBA-backed loan that is part of the latest stimulus bill.  The portion of the loan that is used for payroll, employee benefits, rent, mortgage will be converted to a grant under most scenarios.

There’s certainly ‘execution risk’ with the program, but for many small businesses (< 500 employees) there are options that ought to be strongly considered before pulling the trigger on furloughs or layoffs.

Supposedly, official details will be available Friday, but there is plenty of commentary on the ‘Payroll Protection Program’ out there.

[Scooter_Stepford]

I just learned a hotel booking site furloughed 95 of its 100 employees. The only hotels being booked around the world are in China.

Depending on their circumstances, to keep their staff the company could apply for an SBA-backed loan that is part of the latest stimulus bill.  The portion of the loan that is used for payroll, employee benefits, rent, mortgage will be converted to a grant under most scenarios.

There’s certainly ‘execution risk’ with the program, but for many small businesses (< 500 employees) there are options that ought to be strongly considered before pulling the trigger on furloughs or layoffs.

Supposedly, official details will be available Friday, but there is plenty of commentary on the ‘Payroll Protection Program’ out there.

[Leftcoast]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

[Leftcoast]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

[BostonCard]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

Thank you for bringing that up; I echo the sentiment.  It's going to be a tough time no matter what we do, even for people who keep their jobs.

BC

[BostonCard]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

Thank you for bringing that up; I echo the sentiment.  It's going to be a tough time no matter what we do, even for people who keep their jobs.

BC

[Mick]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

Thanks, LC and BC.  It wasn't too bad, actually.  I spoke with two of my three furlough-ees (We decided on a furlough vs. a layoff), my Sr. Director spoke with the third.  What was a little bit tough was that I was under pressure to furlough more people.  That was a tough sell, but we made it by the skin of our teeth. Happily, new business and new revenue are still priorities.

Had the full team call a few hours ago.  Survivor's relief, it went well.  The tougher call was with my eight senior staff yesterday.  That was a little rocky.  All of them are really strong performers, one or two personality issues aside.  They weren't happy because we're a little lean anyways.

What cushioned the blow a lot was that most of our competitors were far more drastic.  One of them ceased partner pay, period, for the foreseeable future.  One of them gave up matching for retirement (rich firm problems).  One cut salaries 40%, but didn't furlough or lay off anyone.  And a few did what we did -- budget cuts across the board, furlough, across the board compensation cuts.  They did promise that we'd get the people and compensation back, if at all possible.  And that did happen for me in 2009.

I haven't yet had the terrible conversation. That will come with a rainmaker partner who is accustomed to a sherpa-style level of support. May be the most narcissistic person I've ever met. She irritates pretty much everyone she encounters. I drew the short straw, so tomorrow I am going to tell her she's going to be treated like everyone else, because we have fewer people and all of our partners now have greater business development needs,. This one will be entertaining.

[Mick]

By the way, Mick, I hope your day went as well as possible given the circumstances.  Layoffs are awful during normal business turndowns and must have been crushing today.

Thanks, LC and BC.  It wasn't too bad, actually.  I spoke with two of my three furlough-ees (We decided on a furlough vs. a layoff), my Sr. Director spoke with the third.  What was a little bit tough was that I was under pressure to furlough more people.  That was a tough sell, but we made it by the skin of our teeth. Happily, new business and new revenue are still priorities.

Had the full team call a few hours ago.  Survivor's relief, it went well.  The tougher call was with my eight senior staff yesterday.  That was a little rocky.  All of them are really strong performers, one or two personality issues aside.  They weren't happy because we're a little lean anyways.

What cushioned the blow a lot was that most of our competitors were far more drastic.  One of them ceased partner pay, period, for the foreseeable future.  One of them gave up matching for retirement (rich firm problems).  One cut salaries 40%, but didn't furlough or lay off anyone.  And a few did what we did -- budget cuts across the board, furlough, across the board compensation cuts.  They did promise that we'd get the people and compensation back, if at all possible.  And that did happen for me in 2009.

I haven't yet had the terrible conversation. That will come with a rainmaker partner who is accustomed to a sherpa-style level of support. May be the most narcissistic person I've ever met. She irritates pretty much everyone she encounters. I drew the short straw, so tomorrow I am going to tell her she's going to be treated like everyone else, because we have fewer people and all of our partners now have greater business development needs,. This one will be entertaining.

[2006alum]

Sorry Mick, that sounds terrible. It's heartening, at least, that your firm is relatively better positioned vis-a-vis competitors, and that managers like you have been through similar turbulence before, so there's a steady hand at the wheel. I feel like a lot of folks under the age of 30 have little meaningful memory of the last great recession and don't realize how long and hard the climb could be. And unlike then, a lot of sectors of the economy, including retail, mom and pops, and restaurants, were already in really precarious situations. At worst, I am fearful Andrew Yang's projections have just jumped forward ~5 years.

[2006alum]

Sorry Mick, that sounds terrible. It's heartening, at least, that your firm is relatively better positioned vis-a-vis competitors, and that managers like you have been through similar turbulence before, so there's a steady hand at the wheel. I feel like a lot of folks under the age of 30 have little meaningful memory of the last great recession and don't realize how long and hard the climb could be. And unlike then, a lot of sectors of the economy, including retail, mom and pops, and restaurants, were already in really precarious situations. At worst, I am fearful Andrew Yang's projections have just jumped forward ~5 years.