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Let's add Iceland to the short list of countries with effective leadership
Let's add Iceland to the short list of countries with effective leadership
04-07-2020, 02:38 AM
I don’t believe it. It must be fake news.
Because China lied about its numbers, it is simply impossible that any country could have set up massive testing, contact tracing and quarantining before the tragedy in Italy. It was impossible to know.
If this Iceland fake story was true, it would mean governments all over the world — including our own — were engaging in excuses, lies, distractions and skapegoating to cover up for their own failures and incompetence.
Because China lied about its numbers, it is simply impossible that any country could have set up massive testing, contact tracing and quarantining before the tragedy in Italy. It was impossible to know.
If this Iceland fake story was true, it would mean governments all over the world — including our own — were engaging in excuses, lies, distractions and skapegoating to cover up for their own failures and incompetence.
I don’t believe it. It must be fake news.
Because China lied about its numbers, it is simply impossible that any country could have set up massive testing, contact tracing and quarantining before the tragedy in Italy. It was impossible to know.
If this Iceland fake story was true, it would mean governments all over the world — including our own — were engaging in excuses, lies, distractions and skapegoating to cover up for their own failures and incompetence.
Because China lied about its numbers, it is simply impossible that any country could have set up massive testing, contact tracing and quarantining before the tragedy in Italy. It was impossible to know.
If this Iceland fake story was true, it would mean governments all over the world — including our own — were engaging in excuses, lies, distractions and skapegoating to cover up for their own failures and incompetence.
04-07-2020, 03:18 AM
If HCQ works best if used early in infection, wide spread testing of general population will be only way to make it effective. Testing to know where virus exists is the only full-proof way to stop it absent a vaccine.
Congratulations to Iceland, but let’s not lose sight of the fact a country the size of Iceland has an easier time testing due to its small population. Not only does it require less testing supply, but it’s citizens are much easier to manage.
Congratulations to Iceland, but let’s not lose sight of the fact a country the size of Iceland has an easier time testing due to its small population. Not only does it require less testing supply, but it’s citizens are much easier to manage.
If HCQ works best if used early in infection, wide spread testing of general population will be only way to make it effective. Testing to know where virus exists is the only full-proof way to stop it absent a vaccine.
Congratulations to Iceland, but let’s not lose sight of the fact a country the size of Iceland has an easier time testing due to its small population. Not only does it require less testing supply, but it’s citizens are much easier to manage.
Congratulations to Iceland, but let’s not lose sight of the fact a country the size of Iceland has an easier time testing due to its small population. Not only does it require less testing supply, but it’s citizens are much easier to manage.
(04-07-2020, 02:38 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: Because China lied about its numbersI suspect you were being facetious.
Both Iceland and China attempted to reduce the infection growth by getting sick people out of circulation early. Anyone who has taken the time to look at what China did would see that they were getting symptomatic cases early. In a study of 1199 people, the mean time from exposure (not symptom onset) to hospitalization was 4.0 days. They were not just waiting for self-selected people to show up for a test. You want groceries? First let's check for symptoms. They had something like 10K people hunting for contacts. (My guess is that this didn't find asymptomatic people because they checked for symptoms in the contacts. Like California, the testing protocol was designed to test those with symptoms. Still, in one province, China tested 250,000 people. IIRC, the positive test rate was something like 0.5%)
People tend to give credit to Korea for heavy testing as part of the reason they had a low infection attack rate. Yet, their protocol, is to test only in the case of a fever or respiratory symptoms.
Quote:We do sometimes apply exceptions for certain high risk groups. For example, we tested all persons linked to certain major clusters (i.e., Shincheonji, Guro-gu call center) regardless of clinical symptoms. We have also recently tested all persons in long-term care facilities in Daegu City regardless of clinical symptoms.That sounds much like the protocol in the United States or in China.
"deCODE's 'screening program accepts everybody who is not showing symptoms and not currently in quarantine,'" but then an assessment is made that "50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic" Huh? Did they test asymptomatic people only, or not? (My guess is that with a wink & a nod, they let anyone take the test, without determined whether they were asymptomatic. Nothing wrong with that, but any claim that their screening program was for the asymptomatic was a fib at best.)
Through April 5, deCODE has found 140 cases in 16,009 tests, at a rate of 87.5 per 10K people. For a population of 360K, that would be 3,150 cases. There is no reporting of how many of these cases become symptomatic. Discounting the 140 and another 142 (cases before deCODE started testing), Iceland only has had 1280 symptomatic cases found by the normal labs. One interpretation would be that 3150/(3150+1280) = 71.3% of the cases are asymptomatic if they really did test only asymptomatic cases. Another possibility is that all the cases are symptomatic, and people that feel a bit off are going for the "asymptomatic" testing before their symptoms kick in (or while they chose to lie about it). The best I can tell currently is that the number of asymptomatic cases is between 0% and 71%.
What is necessary for these cases to run their course and that the deCODE positive test patients are monitored for symptoms. Then we can distinguish asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic.
(04-07-2020, 02:38 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: Because China lied about its numbersI suspect you were being facetious.
Both Iceland and China attempted to reduce the infection growth by getting sick people out of circulation early. Anyone who has taken the time to look at what China did would see that they were getting symptomatic cases early. In a study of 1199 people, the mean time from exposure (not symptom onset) to hospitalization was 4.0 days. They were not just waiting for self-selected people to show up for a test. You want groceries? First let's check for symptoms. They had something like 10K people hunting for contacts. (My guess is that this didn't find asymptomatic people because they checked for symptoms in the contacts. Like California, the testing protocol was designed to test those with symptoms. Still, in one province, China tested 250,000 people. IIRC, the positive test rate was something like 0.5%)
People tend to give credit to Korea for heavy testing as part of the reason they had a low infection attack rate. Yet, their protocol, is to test only in the case of a fever or respiratory symptoms.
Quote:We do sometimes apply exceptions for certain high risk groups. For example, we tested all persons linked to certain major clusters (i.e., Shincheonji, Guro-gu call center) regardless of clinical symptoms. We have also recently tested all persons in long-term care facilities in Daegu City regardless of clinical symptoms.That sounds much like the protocol in the United States or in China.
"deCODE's 'screening program accepts everybody who is not showing symptoms and not currently in quarantine,'" but then an assessment is made that "50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic" Huh? Did they test asymptomatic people only, or not? (My guess is that with a wink & a nod, they let anyone take the test, without determined whether they were asymptomatic. Nothing wrong with that, but any claim that their screening program was for the asymptomatic was a fib at best.)
Through April 5, deCODE has found 140 cases in 16,009 tests, at a rate of 87.5 per 10K people. For a population of 360K, that would be 3,150 cases. There is no reporting of how many of these cases become symptomatic. Discounting the 140 and another 142 (cases before deCODE started testing), Iceland only has had 1280 symptomatic cases found by the normal labs. One interpretation would be that 3150/(3150+1280) = 71.3% of the cases are asymptomatic if they really did test only asymptomatic cases. Another possibility is that all the cases are symptomatic, and people that feel a bit off are going for the "asymptomatic" testing before their symptoms kick in (or while they chose to lie about it). The best I can tell currently is that the number of asymptomatic cases is between 0% and 71%.
What is necessary for these cases to run their course and that the deCODE positive test patients are monitored for symptoms. Then we can distinguish asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic.
04-07-2020, 08:41 AM
To their credit deCODE has always been very clear that their sample is self-selected and therefore is biased in unknown ways. It is probable that many of the people going the deCODE route have some reason to believe it is advisable to do so. That will certainly skew their numbers.
It is also important to realize Iceland has not tested nearly their entire population. Even when/if they actually accomplish this, the several months (three at least) elapsed time will be long enough that community spread would go on in the previously (negative) tested population. As their own Health Minister has stated getting positive symptomatic cases out of the general population and doing the same with those peoples contacts has been the key to controlling the disease so far. Violating quarantine is a serious offense there. You can get up to three months in prison.
Reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...in_Iceland is interesting. Having only one international airport and closely monitoring who is arriving (and from where) really helps ensuring the virus doesn't initially spread very rapidly.
It is also important to realize Iceland has not tested nearly their entire population. Even when/if they actually accomplish this, the several months (three at least) elapsed time will be long enough that community spread would go on in the previously (negative) tested population. As their own Health Minister has stated getting positive symptomatic cases out of the general population and doing the same with those peoples contacts has been the key to controlling the disease so far. Violating quarantine is a serious offense there. You can get up to three months in prison.
Reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...in_Iceland is interesting. Having only one international airport and closely monitoring who is arriving (and from where) really helps ensuring the virus doesn't initially spread very rapidly.
To their credit deCODE has always been very clear that their sample is self-selected and therefore is biased in unknown ways. It is probable that many of the people going the deCODE route have some reason to believe it is advisable to do so. That will certainly skew their numbers.
It is also important to realize Iceland has not tested nearly their entire population. Even when/if they actually accomplish this, the several months (three at least) elapsed time will be long enough that community spread would go on in the previously (negative) tested population. As their own Health Minister has stated getting positive symptomatic cases out of the general population and doing the same with those peoples contacts has been the key to controlling the disease so far. Violating quarantine is a serious offense there. You can get up to three months in prison.
Reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...in_Iceland is interesting. Having only one international airport and closely monitoring who is arriving (and from where) really helps ensuring the virus doesn't initially spread very rapidly.
It is also important to realize Iceland has not tested nearly their entire population. Even when/if they actually accomplish this, the several months (three at least) elapsed time will be long enough that community spread would go on in the previously (negative) tested population. As their own Health Minister has stated getting positive symptomatic cases out of the general population and doing the same with those peoples contacts has been the key to controlling the disease so far. Violating quarantine is a serious offense there. You can get up to three months in prison.
Reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...in_Iceland is interesting. Having only one international airport and closely monitoring who is arriving (and from where) really helps ensuring the virus doesn't initially spread very rapidly.
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